Monday, January 23, 2012

1/23/12 - EOD Update [2:24 PM Update]

[2:24 PM Update]

Here's a StrategyDesk version of my corrective flat count based on the Primary daily chart. Notice that in order to qualify as a flat, wave B must retrace A by 90%.

A 90% retracement of wave A takes the market back to 1340, which so happens to be a Fib extension of 1.272 if [c]/[3] = 1.272*[a]/[1]. The market has already surpassed [c]/[3] = [a]/[1].

So lets keep an eye out for this count should the market continue to rally. Of course the bullish alternate is that this is in fact a wave [3] up of wave 3 green.

EOD Update

Unfortunately the near term wave counts were unclear into the close. See the 3 min chart below.

 The VIX just closed back inside its Bollinger Band so something to watch for tomorrow. However, the SPX did manage to crawl back over the trendline it has been riding above since Dec 21, 2011.

SPX - 3 Min
This count here supports both the primary and alternate options below.

If the primary is in play, wave a of 4 completed at today's low. The bounce thereafter, has done so and complete three waves up with c of b=a of b right into the close and hit the 62% retracement mark. Tomorrow we should then expect a drop down for wave c of 4 towards the 1305 level if c of 4 = a of 4.

Note the option I have on the primary. This could be a triangle in the works for wave 4 blue. Lets keep an eye on the lower Tri TL should there be a shallow drop tomorrow that does not take out today's low.

As for the alternate, which I have labeled Primary Option 2, today's drop completed wave 4 red and now wave 5 red of 3 blue is in progress with a gap and go tomorrow.

I can see wave 3 blue completing near the underside of the trendline (~1330) that started from 10/11/07.

SPX - Primary 

SPX- Alternate

VIX - Daily
Should the VIX close higher than today's close, an equity sell signal will be confirmed. I'm curious if the VIX will reverse sharply tomorrow because the daily MACD is on the verge of a cross down so I'm thinking this may still favor the alternate SPX count.
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