Tuesday, January 31, 2012

1/31/12 - EOD Update

The bulls reversed the bears yesterday and the bears returned the favor today. Short term, its still a little unclear where the market wants to go.

This is what I wrote in last Friday's EOD Update, "If the market is truly in a wave 4, prepare to see whipsaws in the market (think flats and triangles) until it completes since we may witnesses multiple corrective waves (three wave structures) up and down as the market consolidates the most recent gains.

I still believe the market is still trying to chop out a wave 4. The question is what degree. Please refer to my count options (primary, alternate 1 and alternate2) from yesterday's EOD post for the bigger picture.

As for the very near term my primary view is below on the 5 min.

One thing to note is the fact that the daily MACD crossed down today but the bulls got their golden cross.
SPX - 5 min 

Until this count is ruled out, we'll give it the benefit of the doubt. I'm looking for a wave iii green out of the gate tomorrow to help complete a larger degree 3rd wave that will either represent wave 3 of 5 or wave 3 of a larger degree B wave.

Please refer to the 30 min chart below for the near term scenarios if the market continue to chop.

SPX - 30 Min

Based on the three options available, 2 point higher to challenge 1320 at least. The third option is looking for a move below 1300. So long as 1300 holds, option red and green are the ones to watch.

SPX - 60 Min 
An hourly MACD buy signal confirmed and a close above the 20 SMA makes me think the flat/tri scenario may play out.
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