Friday, March 30, 2012

3/30/12 - EOD Update [4:48 PM Update]

[4:48 PM Update]

RUT- Daily

I forgot to include this RUT count earlier. There may be a good case for an irregular flat in the works here. See the gray labels in the chart.

Daily MACD has rolled over so there may be a good case for it.

EOD Update

SPX - 60 Min Options
Still several options on the table. I have 2 pointing for some downside early next week and three pointing higher before 1386.93 is taken out.

SPX - 15 Min
 Can the bears follow through with one?

 Just some pattern recognition and possible repetition?.

SPX - Daily
Just one path option that I'm thinking. Lets keep this one in mind.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

3/29/12 - EOD Update

So far the various options I have presented are still in play.

SPX - 60 Min 
The ED is still alive and I made a slight adjustment to it.

SPX - 5 Min - Bear 

Some options here if one is looking for a bigger move to the down side.

1. Working on a nested 1-2 i-ii down. This option is looking less likely since wave ii is about to retrace back beyond wave i.

2. Wave (a) completed and today's EOD rally completed wave c of (b) of an expanded flat. If wave (b) is complete, a final wave (c) down is to come.

2. Five waves down completed at today's low and the EOD bounce is working on a wave 2/b retrace.

SPX - Daily

The trend so far is still holding.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

3/27/12 - EOD Update [5:24 PM Update]

[5:24 PM Update]

SPX - 3 Min

Looks like a legit double three. 

[2:20 PM Update]

SPX - 60 Min Options

Here's a color coded look at the options again that I'm watching. The more I look at it, the more I'm liking the ED. But any one of the three are just as good at this point so long as the ascending TL holds.

EOD Update

Still a few options here.

Lets see if the selling into close picks up any traction tomorrow. Otherwise, still a few bullish options to watch.

The ED option I propose could fit well with an end of quarter window dressing choppy rally into Friday.

3/27/12 - Pre Market Update

So far it appears another impulse is in the works. This looks consistent with my 60 Min chart option calling for a  i-ii of 3 of [5].


Monday, March 26, 2012

3/26/12 - EOD Update [2:25 PM Update]

[2:25 PM Update]

SPX - 10 Min Flat/Triangle Option
Earlier I wrote, "The issue with this option is the fact that the leg up so far off 1386 looks impulsive. What could happen first is a quick little pullback and then one little leg up to turn this into a larger three wave structure to complete wave b."

Hopefully this chart provides the visual aid to go with that explanation.

EOD Update

In last Friday's EOD Update, I mentioned there was an outside chance of a gap and go move today. The market obviously opted to go with that call. On a 10 min time period and up, the move off 1386 certainly fits as an impulse count up.

Please see the 60 min chart below for the best near term options.
SPX - 10 Min 

SPX - 60 Min 
1. Wave 3 of [5] is underway.  I believe wave i of 3 may have completed into the close. Early weakness tomorrow would be considered wave ii of 3 before launching iii of 3 of [5] towards 1440.

2. Wave b of a triangle or flat is wrapping up. If it has a little more to go, 1420 would be a decent target before pulling back. The issue with this option is the fact that the leg up so far off 1386 looks impulsive. What could happen first is a quick little pullback and then one little leg up to turn this into a larger three wave structure to complete wave b.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Weekend Thoughts [Sunday 4:20 PM]

[Sunday 4:20 PM]
ES so far has played out the H/S top. Currently it is backtesting the neckline.

Will it fail here or overcome it as suggested in the above wave count?

Once again Dr Copper may be showing the way. Lets see if the triangle is now complete.

Weekend Thoughts

I haven't posted this one in a while. For those who do not believe in the long term bullish count option, this is a corrective option to consider should the market continue higher and challenge the all time high.

The 3-push pattern would be consistent with the corrective count option as well as the bullish count option.

Friday, March 23, 2012

3/23/12 - EOD Update [6:55 PM Update-RUT]

[6:55 PM Update-RUT]

Lets see if this count is consistent with a wave1 LD for SPX.

EOD Update

Shorter term, the bears have the edge at the moment since price continues in the descending channel and the daily MACD is curling down. There are a few bearish options in play as well as a bullish option that would allow another move to the downside. However, it is not a slam dunk for the bears just yet.

The bears need to take out 1386 or else the bulls are threatening to attack again early next week. For the bulls a 60 min MACD bull cross was confirmed into the close and a possible completion of a wave 1 leading diagonal. If this is the case, I'm thinking early weakness on Monday for a wave 2 and then a wave 3 up from there.

One stretch at the moment for the bull case is a possible triple nested 1-2 up, which would result in a gap and go through the descending channel, which so happens to be a bull flag. We'll see.

See the 10 min charts below for both the bear and bull options.

SPX - 10 Min - Bear Count
This calls for a wave 3 down to start next week.

SPX - 10 Min - Bull Count
Early weakness to put in wave 2 and then up through the bull flag for wave 3.

The stretch count is that this gaps and goes right out of the gate Monday.

SPX - 60 Min 
Bigger picture. Still in the ascending channel and a nice looking bull flag at the moment.


Copper may have the bull's back. The triangle is still good to go.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

3/22/12 - EOD Update

Lets see what happens. 1390 held today and so far only three waves down. The bears need to hold the wave 1/a low at 1397.68.

See the options below. Bears need to break 1340. Bulls need to invalidate the nested 1-2 i-ii down.

Corrective Option

Bear Option

SPX- 30 Min 

3/22/12 - Pre Market

Looks like we have the H/S in play here. One thing we must consider is this playing out as a flat and the leg breaking down thru the neckline just represents wave c/y.

For ES, this would represent a wave 2 pullback following a five wave move up. This would line up with one of my alternate counts. See the 30 min chart . Slide the alt2 (2) of [5] label over to substitute. Or this 60 min chart I have have been tracking as well.

Keep an eye on the lower channel.

I say this because if copper is working on its final leg of a triangle, this may correlate with this alternate SPX count.
Will the triangle be completing here soon?

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

3/21/12 - EOD Update [8:45 PM Update]

[8:45 PM Update]

SPX - 10 Min 
Adding a 10 min chart to show the H/S target potential along with the larger Fib extension targets for 3/c.

[7:43 PM Update]

SPX - 5 min

My 5 min chart. Lets see if wave iii/c down starts tomorrow if it hasn't already started into the close. If there is a quick little bounce tomorrow, it may just be wave e completing for wave b of the triangle.

If this is a triangle, it cannot be a wave 2 and it doesn't qualify as a flat in its current state.

Lets keep an eye on the Fib extension targets. The bears need to break 1/a decisively if something more bearish is playing out.

Note the bullish alternate too.

EOD Update

Watch that triangle.

3/21/12- Pre Market

 Watching MACD, the potential triangle and the potential H/S top that may go with MACD.

Still watching copper's triangle. Wondering if wave e of 4 is completing an ED.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

3/20/21 - EOD Update

Happy Spring! Lets see if the bears can come out of hibernation here.

If I were a bear, I would hope that a lower low will be put in tomorrow if a bearish count is to gain some traction.

The 3min chart below highlights a possible five wave move off the day's low so in order to invalidate this, the bears need to make a lower low real soon.

SPX - 3 Min 
Is this the start of a new five wave structure up or just a deceiving bearish pennant representing a wave 2/b bounce? Overall pattern-wise this looks like a bear flag/pennant, so one would expect at least another leg down in a wave c at minimum. So lets see if the bears can push for a lower low.

SPX - 30 Min
Note the 2 alternate options there and the Fib extension targets for 3/c red.

SPX- McClellan Oscillator
Lots of -ve divergence here.

BAC looks like it may be working on wave 4 blue.

Monday, March 19, 2012

3/19/12 - EOD Update

A busy Monday for me so this is short.

Some -ve MACD divergence and I don't have time to count the squiggles today so not sure if this puppy may extend some more.

SPX - 30 Min
SPX- 60 Min
Tap the mid and top channels. MACD -ve divergence on the hourly as well.

Note where [5]=[1]

BAC- Daily
Is BAC complete with five waves up or just 3 of 5?

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Weekend Thoughts

SPX - 20 Year - 10/2009
I'm not sure if I posted this on the blog several years ago but this was something I was looking into back in October 2009. Three years later and look where we are now....

SPX - 20 Year - Today

With some adjustments to the chart, look at where we are now. Something more interesting are the Fibonacci years for each bubble.

The dot com bubble lasted approximately 8 years, the real estate bubble approximately 5 years and now the treasury bubble at its 3 year mark.

Does it mean anything? Who knows but its interesting nonetheless.

SPX - Weekly Cup and Handle
Ya'll have seen this chart now many times. Just sayin...

Friday, March 16, 2012

3/16/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 30 Min 
Broke just below the channel. Can it finally be complete?

A break below 1390 would certainly provide a pretty good clue. Note the alternate. It may coincide with BAC's wave structure.

We'll see early next week.

BAC- Daily
BAC looks pretty near complete. Those are some clear wave up. Wave 5 may have just a little more to go if not already complete.

7.90 may be a pretty good target for a wave 2/b pullback.

More charts over the weekend. Happy St Patrick's Day! Cheers!

Thursday, March 15, 2012

3/15/12 - EOD Update

Hard to say if a fifth wave is complete. Should that fifth be complete, the question then becomes what does it represent? See the 30 min chart below for some options.

SPX - 1 Min

Earlier in the CiL today, I posted a 1 min chart, which I believe sported five clean waves. It stood to reason that it should have represented a wave 1/a with at least a 3/c down to follow. However, by the end of the day I have come to find out that a new high was made.

The only logical explanation for that as it relates to EW is that it represented a wave c of an expanded flat.

SPX - 5 Min
A few options here:

1. Wave 5 red completed with and ED
2. A larger flat is in play and 4 gray may still be playing out.
3. Wave 4 gray is a running flat and 5 gray started into the close. 5=1 gray at 1406.

SPX - 30 Min - Red Option 
Once we get the squiggles right, we still need to figure out how it fits into the bigger picture.

SPX - 60 Min 
The red option with the channels and Fib extension target for [5].