Monday, April 30, 2012

4/30/12 - EOD Update [2:50 PM Update]

[2:50 PM Update]

DJI may be working a triangle for Minor 4. Again, Minor 4 has room to play out as either a flat, triangle or even a zigzag (tho rare).

EOD Update

I believe the market put in five waves down off the 4/27 higher and broke down out of the rising wedge.

Near term, all count options point to a quick bounce (maybe to 1400 or the bounce could already be complete) before one more leg down at minimum. If you are following the pink and bearish count, it would be more than that, however, all options may be looking for a test of the 20 day SMA at 1386.

1386 also represents a 38% retracement of the 4/23 leg up.

The alternate view near term is that the rally leg off 4/23 only completed a wave 4 today. See the 5 min chart below.

SPX - 15 Min
Lets see if the market wants to target 1388-1382.

SPX - 5 Min Alt
Maybe one more push higher first before a larger pull back.
SPX - Bear case
The bears are trying to build their case.

SPX - Daily Bollinger Bands
The bulls want to hold the 20 day SMA.

SPX - Hourly Bollinger Bands
A hold on the hourly 20 SMA may confirm the next leg down.

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