Friday, June 29, 2012

6/29/12 - EOD Update

The bulls certainly followed through with yesterday's EOD reversal. There are still several options on the table by way out counts so it is still hard to say for sure which count is in play near term.

Until the bulls can break 1422, the bear count is still a threat. Now that the month and quarter is over, we shall see what happens next week.

The primary option for the bear count is very close to becoming invalidated. 1363.46 would rule it out.
If 1363.46 is taken out next week, the alternate count turns into a larger complex wxy corrective for wave (2).

The bulls reclaimed several MAs  and EMAs today and broke through the near term descending trendline. There is wide open space to the 4/2-5/1/12 TL above near 1390.

As proposed the other day, a much larger bounce should be expected out of a diagonal and so far this is what may be happening so we need to continue to monitor this.

Wave (y) could very well be in progress or wave b of (x) just completed today, with wave c down to come starting next week.
Daily Bollinger Bands
Weekly Cup and Handle
I posted this one several times now and the cup and handle pattern should be watched here. For those wondering how a follow through higher can be accounted for if the waves are not impulsing up, please see the LT corrective option I have had for some time now.

Long Term Corrective Option

6/29/12 - Pre Market

As I posted last night, the alternate for the bear count is that wave c of 2 was underway. The market is telling us that is the case so the counts have been adjusted.

1350-1353 will be a key area to watch here since this is the 5/1-6/19 TL and 1.618* Fib extension target for c of 2.


Thursday, June 28, 2012

6/28/12 - EOD Update

Another one of those zany reversal days. The bulls managed to keep the green count alive and close the market over the 20 day SMA. The 50 day SMA is now at 1340.

5 Min

The right shoulder continues to play out.

The alternate option here is that wave 2 is not complete and one more push higher will be required to complete wave c of 2.
Lets refer back to this chart again to see if it may shed some light as to where we are.

Note where I have red a back in November 2011. Notice the McClellan reading at the time (green asterisk) after completing step [1]. The McClellan found support near zero and then chopped sideways while forming b before heading lower to complete [2]. 

Now compare the current situation where I have the green asterisk. The McClellan once again bounced at the zero line and is in the process of completing b. We'll see.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

6/27/12 - EOD Update

[4:45 PM Update]

3 Min
Here's a squiggle count to support both the green and red options below. 1320 will be key.

EOD Update

The bulls managed to stand their ground a little. As to be expected this bounce could be a challenge of the 50 day SMA, which is currently at 1341.

This bounce so far counts better as a complex corrective, however a case can be made for a very nested 1-2 up. So long as price remains below the 50 day, I shall favor the bear count.


Head and shoulders still playing out

The bulls are trying to wrap up wave A.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

6/26/12 - EOD Update [9:25 PM Update]

[9:25 PM Update]

I think I posted a chart highlighting a diagonal a few days ago and forgot to follow up with this potential scenario. We know that diagonals are typically retraced 78.6% so something to keep an eye on.

EOD Update

The bears have a chance to turn up the heat as early as tomorrow if the red option is correct on the 5 min below. A double zigzag completing with a wave y ending diagonal could very well have completed wave 2 per the bear count below.

On the flip note, the bulls have chance to fight a little longer and push the market higher towards the 50 day SMA. I'm not convinced of this count but a triple nested 1-2 would be the call after a quick backtest of the blue TL.
5 Min

The head and shoulders is still a threat.

Bollinger Bands
MACD turning down but the market did close slightly above the 20 day SMA.

Monday, June 25, 2012

6/25/12 - EOD Update

The market went along with the near term call at EOD last week. The bulls lost the 20 day SMA so we need to see what the bears have in store. It is very possible wave 1 completed today and 2 up was underway per the bear count. A bounce target between 1330-1335 would be something to keep an eye on.

However, we must now also consider a bearish nested 1-2 i-ii that could be in play that may target the lower BB at 1276. The near term pattern on the 5 min does look like a bearish flag. We'll see.


The bulls are struggling to keep things alive here. Note this is only an intermediate term bullish view because it requires another tag lower.
30 Min 
The wave 2 bear retrace towards 1330-1335 would make a very nice right shoulder.

Bollinger Bands
Is this looking to hit the lower BB at 1276?

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Weekend Update [6/27/12 - Update]

 [6/27/12 - Update]

This is an update in response to jxsmith's comment below. I'm not sure if double correctives have to consist of a-b-c subwaves only or if  they can also have complex subwaves of their own.

In this case, my previous chart had wave [y] forming a double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) vs the typical (a)-(b)-(c) subwaves. In the event that the latter should be used, the chart addresses addresses that issue and personally I like this version better.

Weekend Update

Near term, I'm looking for one more little leg down, which would be a nice touch of the 20 day SMA at 1320.
5 Min


The bulls lost the neckline support (1335) of the inverted head and shoulders. We need to see if the bounce is just a backtest of that failed neckline.
50 / 200 Day SMA
The same concept goes with the 50 day SMA here.

Below are the bigger picture views and at the moment the bearish completion of Intermediate (B) may have an advantage over the ultrabullish count below.

However, note the LT Corrective option. I have tracked this one for some time as well but have not updated this since the implications of the direction were the same as the previous bull count.

Now that the original bull count is out, this would be one final explanation for another leg higher in a corrective fashion.

Lets just keep an open mind and see what happens.

Intermediate B

Ultra Bull
LT Corrective Option
This count is still maintaining the channel and MACD is still above the TL.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

6/21/12 - EOD Update

The red bear count certainly stepped up to the plate with today's decline.
The 60 min bull count I had been posting over the past few weeks has now been ruled out and some adjustments have been made.

15 Min 
The red count is in control at the moment.


This is the next best option for the bulls, however, this is only temporary as this count suggests a much larger corrective wave down is in progress.

I forgot to post this chart last night when I was looking at the McClellan reading. This suggests that [1] is complete and [2] is in progress. We'll see and continue to monitor the similarities.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

6/20/12 - EOD Update [7:02 PM Update]

[7:02 PM Update]

1 Min
Here is a 1 min view showing a very clean impulse off the wave wave iv mark on my 15 min chart below. if wave v is underway, we should see a gap and go tomorrow. Confirmation that it is a wave v would come with the breach of 1363.

If not, we'll keep an eye on that triangle.

EOD Update 

Around 11:20 AM PST today I tweeted that I would be looking out for a triangle. So far so good. The 15 min applies for both the bear and bull count.

One thing to keep in mind is the note I have on the 15 min calling for a truncated 5th. We'll see.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

6/19/12 - EOD Update

The market cleared the 50 day SMA today and is working on what appears to be an extended wave 3. Now whether that is wave 3 of c or 3 of 3 is to be determined.

The inverted h/s continues to play out and as highlighted on the bull option, is looking for a 1400 target.


For my bear option, I have removed the wave [4] possibility since there is a clear [4]-[1] overlap with the old count. The alternate that I had on this chart takes priority.

McClellan Osc

One thing I have not seen others mention is the 78% Fib retrace target at 1390. This would be something to expect even if one were to buy into the bear count here since we know that markets tend to retrace towards the 78% retracement zone out of a diagonal or wedge for this matter.

That is a solid move on the McClellan

This chart continues to work. Note the last time the market hit point [1] where the McClellan reading was. We are just about there now. We'll see.

Ultra Bull Option
I posted this ultra bullish counts a few weeks ago. I haven't updated it since until the red line was breached, which happened today. So this is something to consider and watch once again.

Monday, June 18, 2012

6/18/12 - EOD Update

Looks like the market has now backtested the 50 day SMA as anticipated. Now the question is what does it do right here?

Below are the near term count options.

15 Min 
Green is looking to complete wave 3. Red is looking to complete wave c and blue is looking to set up a very bullish nested 1-2 {i}-{ii} up.

The blue count option is the one to follow should the market fulfill the inverted h/s target and blow through the 50 day SMA.
50 - 200 DAY SMA



DJI - 60 Min
I have the DJI on the same count as the SPX green option.