Friday, June 15, 2012

6/15/12 - EOD Update

I'm glad when my gut is right every now and then. Yesterday, though it was still unclear where the market was going per the wave counts, I mentioned that my gut was saying the market was going to take a stab at the 50 day SMA near 1348.

Here are some things going for the bulls:

1. A close over the 13 week EMA
2. A break over the inverted head and shoulders neckline at 1335.
3. The daily MACD is heading for the centerline

Things going for the bears:

1. The 50 day SMA is just overhead
2. 1357.38 has yet to be breached.
3. The McClellan Oscillator shook off a -ve divergence and

10 Min 
The green option lines up with the bull chart below. The red lines up with the bear chart below. Blue is an alternate.
As I mentioned yesterday, we may have to consider the bear count having completed five waves down from April. However, until 1357.38 is breached, it could very well just be working on wave [4].

The bulls are trying to build some momentum here. A break of the inverted head and shoulders neckline is a start.
Fractal / Similarity
This chart continues to provide some guidance. Just a little over a week ago, I posted this chart guessing that wave [1] was starting to head for 1357. So far so good. Click here for that post.
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