Wednesday, July 11, 2012

7/11/12 - EOD Update

The bears dropped the market below 1334.40 intraday, which invalidated the more bullish bull option. They also closed the market just below the 20 day SMA for a second day in a row.

The bulls defended the lower the TL of the rising wedge; leading diagonal if your bullish and bearish rising wedge if your bearish ;)



5 Min
A slight adjustment to yesterday's count looking for a bounce. When I called the triangle playing out today just before the FOMC announcement, I then knew the five waves down was not yet complete.

After the announcement, a completed wave looks to be complete right at the lower TL of the wedge. The market bounced from there into the close so we'll see if we now get our bounce. This bounce is implied by both the bear and bull counts below. How high is what separates the two.

Daily

Bear
Did wave [2] start near EOD? We'll see. Fib targets are 1348 (38%), 1353 (50%) and 1358 (62%).

Bull
The bulls are trying for a fifth wave to cap off the LD. We'll see.
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