Monday, July 30, 2012

7/30/12 - EOD Update [2:30 PM Update]

[2:30 PM Update]

Diagonal Option

I forgot to post this updated chart. I had been tracking this count/move over the past few weeks. Bulls need to keep this in mind because when I first posted this, I cautioned that a much higher retrace should be expected. Well now that the 78% retracement target has been met, the bears do have something to work with here.

EOD Update 

The market appears to have completed five waves up off the 7/24 low. However there is a strong case for just three waves up having completed as well. As the market pushed slightly higher today, it was rejected by the TL connecting the 4/2 - 5/1 highs.
10 Min 
If five waves have in fact completed, the market should correct here to a proper fib retracement for a wave 2 or b. I have a target near 1367 (38%) - 1352 (62%).

However, if the alternate count is that only three waves have completed, we should expect a shallow range sideways for a wave 4.

Either way, based on the squiggle above, we should be looking for a wave iii/c down next. iii/c=i/a at 1375.

Bear
If you are a bear, you are hoping that Mr B disappoints in 2 days.
Bull
Not really liking this as the bull's best count but that is the bull's best count.
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