7/6/12 - EOD Update

Bear

 The bears are working on a rising wedge and appears to have completed wave iv. As I mentioned the other day, I do not believe it is possible to count the move off 7/3 high as impulsive so I believe the bear count may  be gunning for another stab at the upper TL of the wedge.

However, a break below the 1334 level where I have wave a/i would signal the likely end of the wave (2).

Bull

The bulls have a similar count to the bear count near term. They are working on five waves up to complete wave A of [Y] possibly near the upper TL of the rising wedge.

Both counts could still see a possible drop early next week if the market is planning to backtest the 20 and 50 day SMA, which are both at 1339. The 20 is working on crossing up through the 50 day.

Here is a long term chart to contemplate over the weekend. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the degrees but more so to the pattern that is playing out. Either it is an ED for the 5th wave at GS degree or it is a LD setting up some pain before more bullish days ahead.

This is the original long term chart I have been tracking. So there are still many long term options to think about, which should tell you not to get too caught up with any primary degree wave. Note the bearish monthly MACD though.