Wednesday, September 30, 2015

9/30/15 - EOD Update

Step one for the bulls was to invalidate the wave 4 count. The bears' primary count is the a-b-c bounce that is underway. Fib targets are on the chart and the 20 day SMA targets approximately 1945.

The alternate bear count is the nested 1-2 i-ii down. The invalidation point is at the yellow horizontal line (1952.89).

The bull option is a third wave up in progress, similar to the bear wave c.

5 Min 
Note on the 60 min chart below, we have three waves up since the 8/25 low. This was followed by either a five wave move (if following the red count on the 5 min chart above) or another possible three wave move if following the blue count.

If it is another three wave move off the 9/17 high, a larger flat may be in play for wave iv on the 60 min chart below.

60 Min 

9/30/15 - AM Update

[6:43 AM] - There is the bounce to invalidate the blue count from last night's post. The red count is the primary with the added alternate as mentioned last night.

That alternate is now the new blue count, a nested 1-2.

20 day SMA at 1945 right now.

5 Min 

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

9/29/15 - EOD Update

Two counts near term. Possible double bottom if the red count is complete.

The blue count has a clear invalidation point, which is above the red horizontal line at 1908.92.

A third alternative, which I won't label unless 1908.92 is taken out, would be a bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down.

5 Min 

Monday, September 28, 2015

9/28/15 - EOD Update

The bears came out to play today and started wave iii of v. Wave iii = i at 1840.  1860 would make a double bottom with five completed waves.

Of course1820 can easily be a target down here as well. Well see.

60 Min 

Friday, September 25, 2015

9/25/15 - AM Update

[6:43 AM] - The bears got their fifth wave near term (5 min chart). This would complete wave i of v on the 60 min chart. A three wave bounce is expected with wave a near completion.

One can setup a long trade once wave b completes its pullback. A wave c higher may target 1965-1978. This is for the 5 min chart.

This trade may also work for the 60 min chart since the running flat for wave b is still legit. A wave c move higher on the 60 min chart targets 2020-2040.

Stop would be set at 1908. Don't forget the 60 min chart still has 1860 and lower as a target for wave v.
5 Min 

60 Min 

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

9/23/15 - EOD Update

I guess there was no buy Yom Kippur. Near term, the bears appear to be forming a triangle for wave iv before heading lower for wave v.

5 Min 
 If the bulls want that wave c green higher, they need to turn it up and crack it above 1953.45.
60 Min 

9/23/15 - Buy Yum Kippur?

[6:38 AM Update] - The squiggles

6:38 AM - 1 Min 

[6:30 AM ] - Yesterday I posted the potential bear fake that would follow the green count. Wave b in this case would be a running flat.

Wave c of b in this case is potentially wedging and if the bulls take out 1953.45, the tiny impulse wave count for wave v down would be out . This would tells us there is a higher probability that a running flat may be in play and buying Yoom Kippur

Of course I'll still be keeping an eye for either an impulse count for wave v or the ending diagonal I mentioned just as well.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

9/22/15 - AM Update

[7:07 AM] - The big bear fake would be this running flat for wave b green. I like this option if the bears can't get it going for wave v down, which currently should be seeing a wave 3 down of v. One other avenue to keep an eye out for is an ending diagonal so we would expect a converging chop lower.

7:07 AM - 60 Min 

[6:52 AM] - With the break below wave -i green and the channel, the green alternate I was tracking is now out. The most likely scenario is that wave v is in progress that will challenge 1860.

6:50 AM  - 60 Min 
1825 is also likely target as it would find support near the previous wave 4.


Monday, September 21, 2015

9/21/15 - AM Update

[7:50 AM] - If you were following my tweets last week, I was looking for a bounce to trade. So far so good. Here is a chart for my latest tweet this AM.

7:50 AM - 1 Min 

Friday, September 18, 2015

9/18/15 - AM Update

[7:07 AM] - Shifted green -ii down. May trade this wave count as it approaches the lower end of the channel as well as backtesting the 20 SMA.

7:07 AM - 60 Min

Thursday, September 17, 2015

9/17/15 - EOD Update

Looks like the market's reaction to the Fed rate decision has taken out the triangle option and the bearish blue wave -iii I had been tracking. I have adjusted the count to track the two best options at the moment.

1. With today's spike to 2020, wave c completed after following wave b's combo corrective count.

2. One more spike higher to the 50 SMA will occur in a wave -iii of iii or wave -iii of c.

I like option 2, which is in line with what I have been favoring, a retest of the 50 SMA (now at 2040). A retest of the 50 week would be a target as well.

60 Min 


Tuesday, September 15, 2015

9/15/15 - EOD Update

Not much to add. Looks like we finally got that wave e bounce for the triangle option. Unfortunately still too many options available though to know for sure which way this puppy is gonna break.

I still favor a test of the 50 SMA first so we'll see if we get our catalyst tomorrow.

60 Min 

Thursday, September 10, 2015

9/10/15 - AM Update

1 Min 
[7:49 AM] - Could be an opportunity to play a bounce for wave e here.

60 Min 

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

9/9/15 - EOD Update

Wild day in the market today. Looks like the bears are defending their triangle after rejecting the market at the 20 SMA. I have adjusted the trendlines for the triangle.

The triangle would be officially ruled out with a move over 1993.48. Until then, bulls must be careful.

60 Min

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

9/8/15 - EOD Update

Buying that wave e last Fri worked out well.

The bulls may get their 2040 double bottom target if the bears lose their triangle.

5 Min 
 The alternate count that favors the bulls is below in purple. 2030 has c=a. Backtesting the lower end of the range at 2040 would be reasonable and wouldn't violate the bears five wave count down.

60 Min


9/8/15 - AM Update

Before the open last Fri, I thought the lower trendline of the triangle would be tested if not broken thru.

The market visited the lower TL and started to look like the triangle was gonna hold.
So far so good today. If there is to be a fifth wave down, it projects anywhere betweent 1890 (v=i) to 1840 (v=1.618*i).

60 Min 
Something to think about though is that the daily MACD is turning up from the lows and the alternate bullish count calls for another leg higher (possibly test the 20 SMA) before a new low is made. Based on the daily count below, a flat could be complete or near completion.


Friday, September 4, 2015

9/4/15 - AM Update

[6:30 AM] - My 60 min chart last night did not show the wave -iii of v as I mentioned last night so here it is. With current futures actions, looks like the lower TL for the triangle will be test if not broken thru. Lets see.

6:30 AM - 60 Min

Thursday, September 3, 2015

9/3/15 - EOD Update

The market hit the inverted H/S target that I was tracking today and then reversed course from there. Though my 5 min chart highlights a double bottom target of 2040, I also cautioned folks earlier today with the 60 min chart that I am watching.

One thing to note short term is that price stayed within the ascending channel so far.

5 Min 

As for the 60 min chart, it now looks like if this count is correct, either a wave -iii of v will flush on the open tomorrow or a wave iv triangle may still be in the works.

So at this point, we just need to be ready to play the quick third waves (either wave 3 or Cs).

60 Min

Should the market bounce at the open tomorrow, I would like to see the double bottom target tested. However, keep in mind, even though I'm looking for that test, it is not all rosy for the bulls. It could just be a backtest of the broken trendline on the daily chart below.


9/3/15 - AM Update

[9:00 AM] - Here is the ideal double bottom target zone.

9:00 AM - 5 Min 

[7:36 AM] - Don't want to confuse anyone with timeframes but here is the hourly count. Notice the backtest of the trendline.  This count is still legit
7:36 AM - 60 Min

[7:22 AM] - The alternate wave iv option is out on the 5 min as mentioned the other day with the break thru the red line.

Anyone buy that inv h/s yesterday?

7:22 AM - 5 Min 
I had 1975 for the inv H/S target. Note the Double bottom target.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

9/2/15 - AM Update

[6:35 AM] - There's the bounce. Back to even.

Need to be aware of the potential for this bounce to represent a wave 4 as well. I've added the yellow Fib targets. Naturally for my current long position, I would like it to be more than that but crazy times so be ready.

635 AM - 5 Min 

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

9/1/15 - EOD Update

1867.08 is the level in the sand for the bulls. So far an a-b-c correction off the recent bounce to a 62% retracement so far. Lets see if there is some buying starting tomorrow.

If not, the bearish scenario has a fifth (v) wave down to the 1867 to 1820 range.

5 Min 

60 Min 

9/1/15 - AM Update

Forgot the 5 min chart with the channel

5 Min 

Here is the bearish alternative that would set up a potential bounce scenario if it turns into a double bottom.

Note that the guideline of alternation is in play here too.

60 Min