Monday, February 29, 2016

2/29/16 - EOD Update

So far wave [ii of {c may be playing out. However, as I posted earlier this AM, the count does allow for wave {c to be complete as well along with the rising wedge that may be forming.

For now, we'll assume this is a wave [ii.  This option will be ruled out if the market continues to retrace and fall below 1891 essentially taking out wave [i.

60 Min

2/29/16 - AM Update

6:50 AM  - If wave {c did not complete last week, today's dip may be wave [ii of {c of -y.

6:50 AM - 60 Min 

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

2/24/16 - EOD Update

Took a small short position on the retrace to 1930 as I was looking for based on the primary count. One caveat is the new alternate I have in orange. This would help explain my initial concerns with the wave structure off the 2/11 low.

A move above 1947 will make the orange count the primary.

5 Min 

60 Min 

6/24/16 - AM Update

6:20 AM - Looks like the fifth wave may not have been complete and will extend. Lets see if it takes this path.

6:20 AM - 5 Min 

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

2/23/16 - EOD Update

I relabeled the subwaves for wave {iv to reflect the double zigzag (w-x-y). The 5 min chart shows five tiny waves down.

I'm keeping a mental note on a potential nested 1-2, i-ii up for the bulls off the 2/11. The invalidation point is 1902.17.

5 Min 

60 Min

Monday, February 22, 2016

2/22/16 - EOD Update

The market climbed back towards the 50 day SMA and is now challenging the 2/2 high at 1946.70. I have the primary as a wave -c of {iv. 

However, I don't quite like the look of the wave structure on the 60 Min chart. The wave looks more like a three wave deal at the moment. If it is a three wave move, then the count should be a double zigzag (ie w-x-y). 

Something else to consider and be aware of is the possibility that wave (4) has ended on the Daily chart. So lets keep an eye on the wave structure off the 2/11 low. If a much larger five wave structure develops, this may be something to consider. 

60 Min

Friday, February 19, 2016

2/19/16- AM Update

Wave b complete at 23% retrace?
7:49 AM - 15 Min 

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

2/17/16 - EOD Update

The market continued to rally today and the move up so far looks impulsive. I don't have time to count the squiggles but sure looks like there are five waves there. Either that completes wave -c of {iv or just wave i of -c.

Something else to consider is a possible triangle in the works on the 60 in chart. If this is the case, expect some more chop to finish off wave c, d and e.

15 Min 

60 Min 

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

2/16/16 - EOD Update

I guess I left 30 points on the table but no biggie. Not gonna be greedy after scoring the gap .

At the moment, I still have issues with the wave structure since the 2/1 decline. Even though there are five waves down, I don't necessarily like it based on the 15 min chart below.

My initial wave i mark at 1872.23 was violated (and that structure looked more like a three wave deal to begin with) so to give the bears the benefit of the doubt, I moved it to 1904.76 and played the bounce that came.

So far that bounce has now hit the 62% retracement of the decline since 2/1.

If you believe five waves completed off the 11/3/15 high (2116.58) to the 2/11/16 low (1810.10). If this were true, a 50% retracment of that wave structure takes the market back to appro 196x.

Using my 60 min chart, I have several options there but like my purple wave {iv as the primary option. This implies that all five waves down from the 11/3/15 high is not yet complete.

So what this means is that wave -c of {iv is underway.

Either way, I'm looking for another dip to trade whether I get it as a wave b or wave ii of -c.

15 Min 

60 Min
Something to consider below is the the daily. Assuming if the market has completed five waves down since 11/3/15, then there is a very good possibility that wave (4) completed.

Friday, February 12, 2016

2/12/16 - AM Update

7:45 AM - Out of all longs from yesterday's trade. My target was the gap . So far its there and at 50% retracement. Back to wait and see mode.

7:45 AM - 15 Min 

Thursday, February 11, 2016

2/11/16 - AM Update

11:44 AM - Going long here on what appears to be a double bottom and five completed waves.

11:44 AM - 15 Min

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

2/10/16 AM Update

As mentioned last night, the bears needed to hold 1872.23 in order to maintain the impulse count for wave {v down. So far there is an overlap.

Again I never really liked the wave structure for wave -i. Just to give them the benefit I have marked the next possible wave -i low, which I don't really like. This becomes the new alternate.

The primary is now wave -c of {iv. Either as a flat or part of the triangle.

7:30 AM - 15 Min 

7:30 AM - 60 Min 

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

2/9/16 - EOD Update

In this AM's post, I forgot to mention the 1872.23 level. This is the wave -i low of {v which appears to be underway. So far wave -iv has not violated that level so we shall see if the bears revisit 1812 and lower.

The caveat though and as previously mentioned, wave -i of {v does not look too legit, so the alternate is that wave {iv is not complete yet and will be looking to form wave -c of a flat or part of a triangle.

60 Min 

2/9/16 - AM Update

7:30 AM - The market took out 1870 last week and as I posted odds would favor a wave {v down.  I did mention that I didn't like the wave structure from 2/1 down though to support an impulse. If this truly is wave {v down, it is now working (or completed) on its 4th wave. It just needs to poke a lil lower than 1812 to be considered complete.

The wave structure still remains very choppy and still poses several options. Two of those still leave room for a wave {iv in progress. Either in a flat with wave -c up to come or in a triangle, again with wave -c to come.

Going back to

Thursday, February 4, 2016

2/4/16 - EOD Update

Still too many corrective options. I can't label them all so I'll just stick to my primary.

Wave (iii of -y should be up tomorrow. A move below 1870 moves the odds towards wave {v down to at least 1812 or more.

The caveat to that tho is that I don't like the wave structure down from 2/1. It counts better as a corrective move. I won't discuss that option unless 1870 is taken out.

15 Min 

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

2/3/16 - EOD Update

What a wild ride today. Unfortunately I bought my wave [b dip too soon and had to take some pain but stuck thru the trade for the time being. I'll see what the next two sessions bring. If we see a decent rally tomorrow, I'll take the trade off.

The bears gave up their chance of forming an impulsive wave down off the 1946 high from last week. Therefore, there is a better chance that we may be seeing wave -y up.

We shall see if the gap at 1950 will be filled.

15 Min 
The red alt on the 15 min above is courtesy of vodavi.
60 Min 

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

2/2/16 - EOD Update

Looks like I got my wave [b pullback (I hope!). I bought when SPX was down 28 points.

Hopefully some bulls step in soon because the 60 min looks like my wave {iv could be complete with the breakdown out of the rising wedge.

15 Min  
60 Min

2/2/16 - AM Update

7:40 AM - I bought the wave [b dip this AM when SPX was down 28 pts. Lets see if it is correct.

7:40 AM - 15 Min 

Monday, February 1, 2016

2/1/16 - EOD Update

The market dipped to 1920 early this AM. Over the weekend I posted that I was hoping to buy the wave [b dip near 1920 and better yet near 1910. The market didn't give me 1910 so I initially missed the boat.

After today's action, I think wave [a actually completed so there may still be a chance to get in on wave [b.  ES action tonight may be suggesting the same. We shall see tomorrow.

15 Min

60 Min
On the hourly, the market found some resistance on the underside of the blue trendline. It was also just say of the gap fill at 1950.