Tuesday, February 16, 2016

2/16/16 - EOD Update

I guess I left 30 points on the table but no biggie. Not gonna be greedy after scoring the gap .

At the moment, I still have issues with the wave structure since the 2/1 decline. Even though there are five waves down, I don't necessarily like it based on the 15 min chart below.

My initial wave i mark at 1872.23 was violated (and that structure looked more like a three wave deal to begin with) so to give the bears the benefit of the doubt, I moved it to 1904.76 and played the bounce that came.

So far that bounce has now hit the 62% retracement of the decline since 2/1.

If you believe five waves completed off the 11/3/15 high (2116.58) to the 2/11/16 low (1810.10). If this were true, a 50% retracment of that wave structure takes the market back to appro 196x.

Using my 60 min chart, I have several options there but like my purple wave {iv as the primary option. This implies that all five waves down from the 11/3/15 high is not yet complete.

So what this means is that wave -c of {iv is underway.

Either way, I'm looking for another dip to trade whether I get it as a wave b or wave ii of -c.

15 Min 

60 Min
Something to consider below is the the daily. Assuming if the market has completed five waves down since 11/3/15, then there is a very good possibility that wave (4) completed.

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