Monday, July 25, 2016

7/25/16 - EOD Update

Its possible the market may not be done with its five wave structure after all. The action is starting to look like another triangle up top here for what would be wave iv. We'll see.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

7/21/16 - EOD Update

Looks like five completed waves off the 6/27 low. Lets see what type of a-b-c pullback comes from this. A 50% retracement of that wave structure targets approximately 2087.

However, keep in mind the overall wave structure off the 2/11/16 low so far looks like three waves up only (highlighted by the orange dotted line).

If this is a bullish wave off the 2/11/16, then it is implying a bullish nested 1-2, i-ii up. Wave i completed off the 6/27 low and now a wave ii pullback down the the approx target I mention in the 1st paragraph.

This bullish nested1-2, i-ii is invalidated though if the market retraces all of wave i at 1991.68. Am I convinced this is what is happening? I'm not sure at the moment. However, if it is, the weekly chart below implies that wave 3 of (5) of [3] up may be coming up next.

I do have a count for the bears though. It is on the weekly below. I posted this a week or so ago. It is the alternate red option, implying that a flat or expanded flat is in the works.

That option implies that the bears will come back out to play and challenge anywhere towards the lower end of the range at 1800.

So short term, a possible short play may work for a retrace anywhere near possibly the 20 day SMA with a stop above the all time high.

Then the next play, if bullish is buy it for a continued climb higher. Otherwise, wait and see if 1991.68 can be taken out to signal a much bigger bear play to come.

60 Min 


Tuesday, July 19, 2016

7/19/16 - EOD Update

Not much to add since the last update other than sideways action. This leads me to believe that wave iii is complete. The sideways action would be wave iv.

60 Min

Thursday, July 14, 2016

7/14/16 - EOD Update

Looks like wave iii has almost completed five waves. Wave iii=i at 2190 so we'll see how wave {v of iii plays out. MACD continues to -ve diverge so we'll see if that confirms the end of wave iii.

60 Min 

Monday, July 11, 2016

7/11/16 - EOD Update

Providing an update to my long term chart tonight since the wave structure from the 5/15 high to 2/16 low looks like three waves down. From the 2/16 low to now, three more waves up. This would fit well for a flat, which would imply a large wave c down for wave (4).

This is an option. The primary is wave (5) up underway. However, leaving room for this possibility.

We'll see.

Looks like wave {iii of iii completed today or is nearing completion. We'll see if the -ve MACD divergence is confirmed. Wave iii = i at 2190.

The bulls need to defend 2108.71 in order to complete five waves for wave iii. Though the primary count is bullish, I actually took a small short position again on the chance that this pulls back to the 20/50 SMA or fails on a sustained break out over the 213x level.

60 Min 

Friday, July 8, 2016

7/8/16 - AM Update

The blue count option is implying a wave iii. All bear counts previously posted are out. The only other bear option is a larger flat should 213x hold. Will post that bear option later should the market fail to break thru 213x. 

60 Min 

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

7/6/16 - AM Update

7:10 AM - 1 min view

7:10 AM - 1 Min

7:05 AM - From an hourly standpoint, looks like five waves complete. Need to count the subwaves at 1 and/or 5 min degree.

7:05 AM - 60 Min 

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

7/5/16 - EOD Update

The market blasted much higher since my last post on June 29. I've been waiting to see the completion of wave i, which I think may now be the case.

It appears wave ii down is in progress and I'm hoping to buy. My targets are 2060-2050. We shall see.

60 Min