Thursday, July 21, 2016

7/21/16 - EOD Update

Looks like five completed waves off the 6/27 low. Lets see what type of a-b-c pullback comes from this. A 50% retracement of that wave structure targets approximately 2087.

However, keep in mind the overall wave structure off the 2/11/16 low so far looks like three waves up only (highlighted by the orange dotted line).

If this is a bullish wave off the 2/11/16, then it is implying a bullish nested 1-2, i-ii up. Wave i completed off the 6/27 low and now a wave ii pullback down the the approx target I mention in the 1st paragraph.

This bullish nested1-2, i-ii is invalidated though if the market retraces all of wave i at 1991.68. Am I convinced this is what is happening? I'm not sure at the moment. However, if it is, the weekly chart below implies that wave 3 of (5) of [3] up may be coming up next.

I do have a count for the bears though. It is on the weekly below. I posted this a week or so ago. It is the alternate red option, implying that a flat or expanded flat is in the works.

That option implies that the bears will come back out to play and challenge anywhere towards the lower end of the range at 1800.

So short term, a possible short play may work for a retrace anywhere near possibly the 20 day SMA with a stop above the all time high.

Then the next play, if bullish is buy it for a continued climb higher. Otherwise, wait and see if 1991.68 can be taken out to signal a much bigger bear play to come.

60 Min 


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