SPX - EOD

SPX - BEAR COUNT #1

SPX - BEAR COUNT #2

SPX - BOLLINGER BANDS

SPX - BULL COUNT IS OUT

The bear counts rule the day. I like #1 but #2 may come into play if the lower BB provides support for the market. 

The bull count I have been presenting all along is officially out, at least how it is labeled. There are a few other options to be aware of. I'll see if I can post them later tonight. 

Gotta keep an eye on the daily MACD though. As previously mentioned,  a possible positive divergence may be in the works. 

SPX - AM UPDATE

http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2010/06/spx-eod_25.html

SPX - BEAR COUNT

SPX - BULL COUNT (IN JEOPARDY)

SPX -MAs

 SPX -BBs

This is the most bullish bear count (top chart). The bull count I have presented for weeks is severly in jeopardy and I'll say most likely out. 

Watch for a possible bounce though and a positive divergence as I pointed out last week if we see a new low today or the next few days. 

The market has reached the lower BB as mentioned last week as well. 

That death cross I've been watching and waiting for is getting close. Not there yet but close.

SPX EOD

SPX - 60 MIN BEAR

As labeled yesterday, it appears the wedge/ending diagonal completed today. For this count, that structure represents the bottom for minuette (i).

Minuette (ii) up should be underway. The Fibonacci retracement targets are on the chart. We should be looking at the typical retrace levels for wave 2s at 50-62%.

DAILY MAs

The market remains below the moving averages. One thing to note is the MACD trend.

Should the index make a lower low and MACD remains above it's green trendline,  a positive divergence will develop.

SPX - DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS

The market continues to march lower. Price support and the lower bollinger band appears to fall in line at the moment. Let's see if this level holds or if we fall right through.

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED BULL COUNT

Here's my preferred count I have been tracking all along. The way this count is labeled, subminuette ii completed a double zigzag today.

Given that the daily MACD looks a little bearish, expecting a subminuette iii up may be a little ambitious, but you never know.

SPX - 60 MIN BULL OPTION 1

This option anticipates a subminuette iii wave up as well. Let's see what happens.

SPX - 60 MIN BULL OPTION 2

Here's a different take on the bull count. I have a Minor B bottom at 1040.78 and today's bottom completing a minuette (ii) running flat.

The red Fibs represent the length of subminuette a. Subminuette c = a.

A warning again as with the other bull counts. The daily MACD should give one pause.

Let's see what next week has in store.

SPX AM UPDATE

SPX - 15 MIN

Here's a different look at that wedge I posted on last night. It may very well count as a larger leading diagonal. Notice the positive divergence with MACD?

The target for [5] looks to be in the 1060 and perhaps 1050s.

SPX - 60 MIN

This is yet another option on the structure that would favor the bulls. This count implies that minuette (ii) is a flat. The bears will have to take out the 1040 low to confirm they are in control. We'll see.

SPX EOD

The market continues to sell off and is on shaky ground. The bulls are no where to be found at the moment and the bullish counts are in jeopardy.

It was very interesting to see the disconnect between the EUR/USD and the markets, which have moved together in the past. 

Today's price action is starting to look like a wedge is forming. Refer to the charts below regarding my thoughts on that. 

SPX - 60 MIN BEAR

For this count, the wedge or ending diagonal possibly represents subminuette v of minuette (i). Let's see if the ED plays out. If so, a bounce for minuette (ii) would be expected.

SPX - 60 MIN BULL

The wedge here is an ending diagonal for micro [Y] to complete the pullback for subminuette ii. Once again a break of 1042.17 would rule this count as it is labeled out.

SPX - 60 MIN BULL OPTIONAL

The same situation applies here for this count as it does for the Bull count above.

SPX DAILY MAs

The daily trends are obviously down and bearish.

SPX DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS

Price broke below the middle band and most likely will be heading for the lower band at 1049, which would be a retest of the lows.

SPX AM UPDATE

[11:50 AM - SPX 60 MIN BULL UPDATE]

SPX - 60 MIN BULL COUNT

From the bull count perspective, this may count well as a double zigzag (W-X-Y).  

 

SPX - 60 MIN BULL COUNT

Here's that optional bull count. 








[11:05 AM - EUR/USD UPDATE]

EUR/USD

Of course with my bearish inclinations, I feel the EUR/USD must be revisited again. As I posted a day or so ago, the EUR/USD pair appeared ripe for a rally in what would either be a wave iii or c.

So far so good. Gotta keep an eye on the trendline/neckline. A break above that and a possible inverted head and shoulders is on it's way up to the 1.31 region.
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I am posting the bear options on top this AM. The preferred bear options is that we are currently working on minuette (i) of minute [iii] down. The alternate, in gray, is that we are working on subminuette i of minuette (iii). Both imply the same thing, a wave 3 down.

The market fell below the middle bollinger band and the daily MACD continues to trend lower with a sell signal just around the corner.


In the past I have mentioned that I would be looking for the death cross (50/200 DMA) to signal a very bearish trend. Though it has not occurred yet, it is very close. Combined with the wave counts and trend indicators, this cross seems highly likely so it bears (pun intended) watching.


Of course the bull count I have posted all along has not been ruled out. Addtionally, I posted an alternate bull count that may be playing out. I'll update those charts at EOD.


Until 1042.17 is breached, these counts are still valid.

SPX FIB FANS

Looks like the market fell out of the blue and orange 50% Fib fan.

EUR/USD RALLY? - SPX E-MINI

EUR/USD

Here's a follow up to this chart I posted on 6/16. So far price has respected the trendline and bounced.

I highlighted a possible inverted head and shoulders in the works. If it follows through, 1.32 may be in the cards. Wave 3 (or c if counting this as corrective) = 1.618*1 (or a) at 1.31.

 SPX E-MINI

Nice channels for the mini. As one can see, there is a nice impulse labeled on the chart with a pullback that has now achieved a 50% retracement. The retracment currently sits at a support level. A break out of the purple channel would be a decent hint that price is climbing back higher.  1102 may provide overhead resistance so that will be a level to watch to see if price will climb higher.

SPX EOD

Things are looking a little bearish right now on the daily charts but the 60 min charts sport a short term bullish setup. Either way, both the bull and bear counts I have presented for some time now still apply.

SPX - 60 MIN BULL COUNT

The bull count as presented to the left here has us either in subminuette ii down or possibly [4]. The minute 1042.17 is breached below, you can throw this count out da window. Until then, it is worth watching.

SPX - DAILY BOLLINGER

The daily Bollinger Bands. The market respected the mid band today and almost formed a hammer (or is it a hammer?). We may bounce from here and possibly test the 50 DMA again, which coincides with the upper band.

SPX - 60 MIN BEAR COUNT

So far the structure has channeled well. The count to the left shows that minute [ii] up completed and we are now in a new minuette (i) down of minute [i i i]. Notice how subminuette iv of minuette (i) backtested and was rejected by the minute [ii] mid channel line?

SPX - 60 MIN BEAR COUNT#2

A nested 1-2 with minuette (ii) complete and the beginning of (iii) down is underway. Let's see which bear count prevails.

 

 SPX - DAILY EMAs AND SMAs

The EMAs, SMAs and MACD are supporting a more bearish tone. The market has twice backtested the 50 DMA now and has failed.

The market closed below all the moving averages and the MACD histograms are sporting a negative trend. Most likely more downside to come? 

SPX EOD [BULL COUNT UPDATED]

[BULL COUNT UPDATED]

 SPX - 60 MIN BULL COUNT

This count explores the possibility that we only saw the end of [4] or near completion of [4]. The [2] - [4] channel line lines up well with the upper channel at the top.

I've been exploring counts for [3], which you may have seen from time to time now. There have been issues with rule violations and what not but from a 60 min view, [3] may work as I have it labeled. I'll see if I can get a count labeled for [3].

SPX 60 MIN

SPX DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS

SPX DAILY EMAs

Well that was pretty bearish today. The index closed below the 13, 21, 34 EMAs and 200 SMA. The daily MACD histograms are starting to trend negative.

However, with all that, this pullback once again should not have come as a surprise. As I posted yesterday, I was looking for a pullback down towards a range of 1097-1076. I was eyeing the 1087 level since this was the most likely target at a 50% retracement to complete subminuette ii (the bearish count anticipated this pullback for wave b down). This also corresponds with the 20 MA or middle Bollinger Band. Additionally [C] = [A] at approximately 1086.

I'll see if I can get a squiggle count out later to see if this leg down looks like it is close to complete or maybe is complete.

SPX EOD

 [5:05 PM UPDATE]

 SPX FIB FANS

 SPX CLOSE UP

[3:05 PM UPDATE]

SPX 60 MIN

Just wanted to add this chart that includes a potential support level at 1105-1106. The market is almost there. Let's see.

SPX - 60 MIN

That was a nice little reversal today but should not have come as a surprise given a few of the wave counts coming into today. We got the thrust out of the triangle or throw-over out of the ending diagonal and saw a reversal just after halfway through the day.The market remains above it's 200 day MA.

Here's a follow up to the chart I posted on Friday. I was able to eliminate the gray options. 

A bullish view has a subminuette ii retrace in the works, while a bearish view has the beginnings of a third wave down. 

If a subminuette ii down is in the works, I would anticipate a turn at the Fib retrace levels of 1097-1076 (38-62% respectively). The 50% retracement level at at 1087 looks like a good target since this lines up with the  middle bollinger band (daily).

 

If a third wave down is in progress, then a new low should be made.

Earlier in the CiL I commented on the fact that the squiggles for some reason appear to look like a bunch of waves 3 and 4. It is possible this structure is still trying to stair-step it's way higher. The chart below highlights this possible view:

SPX - 15 MIN OPTIONAL

 SPX - DAILY BOLLINGER

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

SPX E-MINI

Here's a follow up to last night's chart. So far she's tagged the mid-channel and appears to now be consolidating before another spurt higher. Perhaps the upper channel is the goal.

SPX E-MINI

It looks like the E-mini is in rally mode. As a follow up to my Friday post for the cash markets, it appears a triangle breakout has occurred.

Based on my preferred count, that would be a thrust out of a wave [4] with [5] underway. However, I also laid out a few other options on my Friday EOD post (see here).

One addtional option is labeled above. That option is an [A]-[B]-[C] correction with wave [B] represented by a triangle.

The Fibs and channels intersect at approximately 1150 at the moment as well as the triangle thrust target. [C] =.618*[A] =1147 and [5]=[1] at the same level.

BTW, [C]=[A] at 1170 as well. 

GL this week!

EOD [UPDATE: 60 MIN POSSIBLE OPTIONS]

 [UPDATE: 60 MIN POSSIBLE OPTIONS]

Here's  a brief explanation of the three options above.


Option #1 (black and blue labels): An impulse wave that is currently working on its 4th wave with the degree still questionable. Meaning that we may see a series of waves 3 and 4 before it finally breaks higher for wave 5. 

This option is questionable, at least the way it is currently labeled,  because the triangle is ascending, which is more indicative of a diagonal (see options below). 


Option #2 (gray labels): An impulse that is ending with a wave [5] ending diagonal. 


Option #3 (orange labels): A triple zigzag with the final [Z] completing with an ending diagonal. Not sure about this one since triple zigzags are rare. 


Note: For ending diagonal options, subwave (3) of the diagonal may not be complete and could have one more leg up to about 1125.

[UPDATE: 60 MIN PREFERRED]

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

Here's a look at my 60 min chart. A perfect example of my inability to see the forest for the trees. Nothing was changed. Somehow I just got lost in my 15 min count today for a brief second.

So onward we go with wave [4] or some type of corrective b wave. I'll get a bear count out later. 

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SPX 15 MIN

I want to thank Anonymous again for pointing out the oversight earlier on my wave labels. I've made some adjustments and this is the best I can make with the structure so far.

The past three days we saw some consolidation between 1105 and 1118. Based on my preferred count, this is indicative of a wave 4 or micro [4] to be exact.

If using the bear alternate, the sideways structure would be a wave b of Z. Both bull and bear imply one more leg higher and I think it will be aiming for the 1130-1150 mark.

If one were to believe that this was only a wave 2 correction up, a proper Fibonacci retracement would be 62% from the April high, which gets us to the 1150 mark. Why would you expect anything less? So far we got that for Primary wave 2, assuming you are in the Primary Wave 3 down count.

SPX - 60 MIN MAs

The 13 and 21 EMAs on the 60 min chart continue to provide some guidance to the short/intermediate trend.

 SPX - DAILY MAs

The daily shows the 13 attempting to cross up through the 21 EMA. The 21 is heading for the 34 EMA and 200 DMA. The 34 EMA has reveresed course and is trending higher. The 34 EMA is also in line with the 200 DMA at the moment. 

All right. Let's see what post quad witching brings next week. Have a great weekend!