8/30/10

Preferred

Alternate

Not much to add tonight by way of counts tonight. Things seem pretty bearish but the above counts are still on the table and the ones that I am watching.

8/27/10

7:15 AM
Actually, I think I like my chances here. Going long here with a 1040 stop (mental).
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7:05 AM

Didn't I post yesterday at EOD that I was looking for a wave 5 down and a possible retest of 1040 for today? How about 1040.12? Not bad.

With the pre-market action, I thought 5 may have truncated, however, so far so good. Now let's see if she holds. I don't know though because the hourly MACD is looking a tad bearish. We'll see as usual.

8/26/10

7:35 AM

Looks like printed a hammer yesterday as anticipated and so far we are seeing confirmation. Though the market printed below the lower channel yesterday, it managed to close above. Is this channel still intact? So far so good.

7:35 AM

Here is the count I'm primarily watching. Either [y] completed at the 1040 low or just (a) of [y].  If only (a) of [y], a 62% retracement would take us to approximately 1095.

EOD

The final look for the day. I have either 5 (yellow) in progress and just about complete to complete [y] or (a) of [y]. So it is likely we will see 1040 again briefly before this completes.

8/25/10

6:35 AM

I thought I posted this earlier this morning but it must not have posted. Anyway I completely forgot about this chart. Not only was 1050 an important level, but so is 1040 and this count makes me believe so. Time to cover for a sec? We'll see...

And so far we are finding support here.

9:05 AM

9:33 AM

Hmmm....But that is also an ominous looking head and shoulders. The battle continues....

8/24/10

7:05 AM

Here is an update to my 7:40 AM count yesterday. This is my preferred count along with the alternate in gray. This count was looking for a wave 3 down yesterday and sure enough we got it. Notice the head and shoulders below? I posted that last week and it looks like we are seeing some follow through today.

The H/S target and the count above is looking for a re-test of the 1010 low. It doesn't have to get there though because 1050 may provide some support and could mark the end of the pullback, given the alternate wave count. This would also draw the 2nd right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.

7:05 AM

The channels may be telling in whether 1050 holds. We are there now at the bottom of the longer term channel in yellow.

7:30 AM

 Here is another way to view my preferred. The Fibonacci extension there represents [y] to [w]. A .618 ratio takes the market to 1018 approximately, however, the count, as represented above shows that [y] may be wrapping up near 1050. We'll see...

8:00 AM

 Remember this chart? Notice the MACD trendline (second one). We are pretty much there and the structure is right about where it should be to mimic the first one. This may fit in with the case for 1050 support. Again, we'll see...

8/23/10

7:40 AM

I hope you're keeping up with the counts. Here is yet another I have been tracking. As I said before, we are in a range with a multitude of counts. Until we break out, it's anyone's guess.

7:20 AM

7:20 AM CLOSEUP

The 7:20 AM charts may provide some clues and back up the 7:15 AM count. Both channel trendlines intersect at approximately a 61.8% retracement of the most recent leg down.

That Fib retracement is a typical one for subwaves in a triangle.If this is correct, we'll see a push back towards 1105-1110.

7:15 AM

An update to this count shows that subwave d of B may be complete. Looking for subwave e up and that would entail only three waves up (5-3-5).

7:05 AM

Last Friday, intraday, I mentioned there was possibility of a hammer formation right at the neckline and sure enough it looks like that is what has happened. So far, with the green start today, we are confirming the reversal. It is still early, however, the hourly and daily MACD points to a move higher so we'll see.

8/20/10

8:00 AM

Here's a follow up to this chart. We have a neckline break. If this follows through, it looks like we may be seeing 1010 again.

8:01 AM

 But if the market manages to close in the green, that current candle may turn into a hammer (reversal) and close above the neckline creating a false neckline break.

Nice, we have that [5] wave down as anticipated yesterday. That is a clear 5 waves down for what I have labeled as subminuette iii. However, the only problem with that label is that iii is pretty short compared to i. Though it hasn't violated any rules, it almost looks like just [1] of iii or it could just be wave (c) of minute [ii] per the alternate label.

If it is the alternate, (c) = .618*(a) at 1062. 

One other alternate is that this is subminuette v and the entire structure began on 8/9 at the 1129.24 high.

8/19/10 - EOD

730 PM Update

Here's another look at this count I have also presented. I like this option as well. Along with the count below, both imply some more downside action, however, only down to a strong support level near 1000.

In this case above, 1040 may be a key level. Wave c of B (red) = a (represented by the blue Fibs) right at that level. I moved the red Fibs, which represent A red to project for C red. If B completes at 1040, C may project back to 1114 (.618), 1160 (1.0) and 1233 (1.618).

So until we get a clear and decisive break out of this range, all these various counts are available.

At the moment I really like this chart. I'm looking for an impulse down and so far the market is clearly printing a very clear one to count. The target for (c) of [y] down should be = or approx 110% of (a) of [y], which is at 1010 -1000.

The alternate for now is the minute [i] leading diagonal, with the current pullback a minute [ii] down, which should be sharp and retrace [i] nearly 78%.

The MAs do no look bull friendly. As I've posted before, it is a battle of the head and shoulders.

I'm beginning to really like this b wave triangle options. I moved the lower trendline down to represent a lower subwave d. This count fits with the larger picture below.

8/19/10

8:33 AM - H/S

A possible head and shoulders pattern may be forming here.

7:25 AM

I posted this count about two weeks ago as an alternate but it may be moving up the chain in terms of preference. As I have posted before with regards to EW, "It is until it isn't" so the count below still applies unless 1056.88 is breached.

7:33 AM

Notice the alternate labels on the chart just above. If the nested 1-2 count is ruled out, the alternate to that is a leading diagonal for minute [i], though, these formations are rare. I would probably defer more to the 7:25 chart.

7:35

And we may continue to bounce around to complete the wave B triangle in the 7:35 chart. Today's selloff may be completing subwave d. If this count is correct, expect another stab towards the 1130-1150 level to complete subwave e of B.

8/18/10

11:09 AM Update

Here's an update to this count. As mentioned below, was looking for that 5th wave up that we are working on right now. Keep in mind, this could morph into a 3 of 3 up as well.

The bear count calls for a higher high as well.

8:45 AM

So far I count 4 waves up. Looking for a 5th wave to complete wave 1 of one degree higher. MACD on the 15 min is showing that a 5th wave up is most likely in store.

I will also add that this may be a nested 1-2 off the 1069 low.

8/17/10

11:50 AM

An updated look. Are we repeating a similiar pattern? Up and down through the fall of 2009.

10:35 AM - 100 and 200 Week MA

Here's a follow up to this chart posted on 8/3. We are clearly over the 50 day MA and so far over the 13 week EMA, which was support for most of the rise off the Mar 09 low. Last week we saw a little hiccup on the weekly MACD as it was trying to climb over the centerline. That cross up is still very possible.

We'll see what happens.

Another option I see to explain the move off the Apr high as only a correction. The yellow Fibs are an extension of A. Wave C, if this plays out, targets the 1018 - 950 and as low as 840 if C=1.618*A.

Keep in mind the wave B triangle that I propose may require a little more time especially for subwave d.

9:00 AM Update

The market is working it's way back toward the 25% channel, which at the moment is at approximately 1102.

9:00 AM Update

I still like this chart as well. Looking for the completion of T3. If this current T3 emulates the first one, we may see one more pullback from this bounce before it breaks higher if using the MACD trendline as a guideline and the previous price pattern.

8:50 AM

For those of you who may have forgotten about this count. This is how the nested 1-2s would apply.

So far this chart that was posted yesterday is looking pretty good. If we are working on C up (this would be 3 up based on my nested 1-2 bullish option), it is only i of C.

Yesterday's bollinger band chart provided some useful information when the market touched the lower band and bounced. Now I'm keeping an eye on the mid-band or the 20 SMA at 1105. That looks like a very good near term target.

8/16/10 - EUR/USD

I see a positive MACD divergence with the Eurodollar and a clean impulse wave up off the 1.18 low. The current pullback may be wave a of 2 or all of 2 down.

8/16/2010 -

7:38 AM Update

Here's one for the bears. This is a possible count that has medium term bullish implications. The red Fibonacci ratios are projections for wave C as it relates to A. Notice the 1.618 ratio, pretty close to the inverted head and shoulders target. However, C may equal A or take on a .618 ratio.

Wave B is nearly a 62% retracement of A and forms the second right shoulder. 

As of this AM the market has tapped the lower Bollinger Band. We will see if the nested 1-2 count as posted yesterday will pan out.

8/15/10

We already know what our bearish options are. Here is the bullish option to think about.

Here's an update to this chart I've been tracking. Looking for T3 (trough #3 to pull back a Fib level before continuing it's march higher). A possible target would be at MACD trendline support.

8/12/10 - EOD

This chart is looking bearish. We have a MACD daily sell signal in effect. The market closed below the 50 day MA. The 13, 21 and 34 EMAs backtested and was rejected by the 200 SMA. We may also have a failed inverted head and shoulders pattern.

But considering all that, the bulls still have a case as well if you refer to the charts I posted earlier today.

Here's a follow up to the chart I posted earlier today at 7:05 AM. I pointed out that (ii) would likely target the MACD support line.

Look at the results by the end of the day. The signal line is turning up almost right on the money at trendline support and the histograms are indicating a signal is in store.

 Looks like a new channel down. Must see if the lower channel line (yellow) holds.

 Another channel the market appears to be respecting. That lower channel line rests at 1052.