5/31/12 - EOD Update

10:10 PM Update

EOD Update

The market drops and then it rallies. It certainly can't make up its mind at the moment.

Pattern-wise it does look like a bear flag on the hourly but shorter term, there is an argument for a double bottom.

3 min

The rally off the low either represents a wave ii of 5 per the bear count below or is working on new highs per the bull count.

15 min

The 15 min chart is an in-between alternate that also fits for both the 60 min bear and bull count. This would represent a flat for wave 4 per those counts. So shorter term, 1330 may be challenged if this count proves to be correct.

60 Min Bear

Primary for this count is a wave iii of 5 down begins tomorrow. Targets for wave 5 are 1290 - 1260.

60 Min Bull

Unless wave 5 blue is not complete, this is working towards challenging the April high.

Uber Bear

I introduced this count intraday in the CiL. Something to keep in mind.

Ultra Bull

Of course there has to be an ultrabull to answer that uber bear count. Note the level that needs to be clear to give this count some validity.

5/29/12 - EOD Update

Bull Option

For the bull option there blue and green sub options.

Green has a leading diagonal in the works off the 1291 low where wave [C] completed. The issue with this count is that wave iii of the LD is slightly larger than wave i.

The blue option has wave 4 blue completing a zigzag with an ending diagonal for wave c of 4. See the 15 min chart below for this potential count.

If the bulls manage to break over 1343, there is a greater chance that the correction that started on 4/2/12 ended at the 1291 low on 5/18/12.

15 Min 

Once again I have highlighted 2 sub options on this chart.

The green option has a form of an ED playing out.

The red option is looking to complete an ED for wave 4 for either the 60 min bull or bear count.

Bear Count

The bears need to control a move above 1343 or this count as presented above will be ruled out.

5/25/12 - EOD Update

Looks like the market is going to keep everyone in suspense.

5 Min

There are three options on this chart: green, blue and red.

Green calls for a gap and go next week. Blue is looking for a wave d dip and red is looking for a final push up for wave c.

Bear

Bull

Green alternate

5/24/12 - EOD Update

5 Min

Just gonna worry about the near term. So far a triangle appears to be forming. Clearly 1328 must hold to keep this pattern valid.

So tomorrow, per the count, the market either gaps and goes above the upper triangle TL and breaks thru 1328 or it will just sputter up to 1322-1325 before heading back down for wave d of the triangle.

Note the 1346 target above if wave iii/(c) is about to launch up tomorrow.

5/23/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 5 Min

The market embarked on a wild roller coaster ride again, reversing a 15+ point sell off. Because 1292 was not breached today and the bear line was, there is still a good chance the bulls may rally this towards the 1346 target even if it is just to complete waves (C) or (Y).

Keep in mind  as the waves are playing out, we are starting to see what appears to be three wave structures.  **See the bull chart below as well for a larger three wave structure.

How that fits into the bigger picture, see below.

The 20 day SMA is at 1356.

60 Min Bear

 Perhaps a wave 4 triangle is in the works or a complex flat.

60 Min Bull

** Notice the structure for wave 3? That surely looks like a three wave affair. I am also hard pressed to get a good squiggle count out of that.

Because of this, we should not rule out the possibility that the correction from the 4/2 high is over. A break over the wave 1 low (1343.13) will indicate that it is more likely that it is complete.

But until 1343.13 is breached, we'll assume a wave 4 is in progress.

5/22/12 - EOD Update [4:39 PM Update]

[4:39 PM Update]

SPX - 5 MIN 

Here is another example of a possible EW trade setup. I updated the 3 min chart below to a 5 min chart and added some subtle changes to the count.

Note on the chart, should this wave not be five waves up representing a wave (1), it is still possible it may represent a wave (W) or (A).

Confirmation for the bullish setup comes with the break over the red line at 1319.82. The bullish count obviously invalidates below the 1291.98 low.


[2:25 PM Update] 

RUT - Daily

The bearish view of RUT.

 EOD Update

SPX - 3 Min 

This is the primary near term count that I have. The SPX bounced right at the 50% retracement and where c=1.618*a.

 If the bulls break the red horizontal line tomorrow, it becomes more likely that we should see a third leg higher.

If the first five waves up only represent a larger degree wave A., wave C = A at 1346, otherwise 3=1 at 1346 or 3=1.618*1 at 1369. 1369 makes for a nice backtest of the H/S neckline (see chart at the bottom)

Bear - 60 Min

Note how the bullish 3 min above would fit in with the green alt labels on the bear count? Bears must make a lower low to invalidate the near term 3 min count and complete 5 waves down for wave [3] for the bear count.

H/S 

5/21/12 - EOD Update

At EOD last Friday, I mentioned that it was very possible a bounce would start this week. The market answered that call today so far.

SPX - 5 Min

Here is the 5 min view of the bounce.

Bear Count

Based on the bear count, this is the beginning of wave 4 of [3]. Some possible Fib targets are labeled in the chart above.

Ultra Bull Count

If the ultra bull count is playing out, we should expect a impulsive rally from here. We'll see if the bounce off the lower channel will hold.

H/S

Could this bounce just be a backtest of the neckline? If it were to go that high though, the current bear count would be invalidated, so something to keep in mind.

5/20/12 - Weekend Charts

Add caption

Looks like a key week here coming up if the 80 week SMA has something to say about support.

Again, the target was met for the H/S. Should the market find a reason to bounce, we'll keep an eye on the neckline above near 137x in addition to the 20 day SMA near 1364.

As this chart implies, should a bounce come, it probably should be sold if this pattern repeats. This plays well with the H/S.

5/18/12 - EOD Update

The bears are still in control. Its very possible though that we may see a bounce next week.

Minor 4 Flat Option

With today's intraday print of 1291.98, the Minor 4 flat option has now been ruled out plain and simple. That is objective EW there.

Intermediate C Option

The bears are fully in control at the moment and this count implies some more pain is to come for the markets.

Ultra Bull Option

The bulls are not completely dead yet.I presented this ultra bullish count option yesterday and stated it would take effect once 1292 was breached.

Note the touch of the lower channel and tag of 50% retracement. We'll see...

NYMO

This fractal/similarity has been playing out. Lets see if the deep NYMO print marks the completion of label 1 yellow just like 8/8 last year. If this is playing out the same way, the first bounce probably should be should.

Cup and Handle

Looks like the handle wanted to push lower. If this is playing out, this correlates well with the ultra bull count.

Have a nice weekend all.

5/17/12 - EOD Update

I really do not have anything new to add other than the fact that it most likely is not a diagonal now :). However, both counts as presented yesterday still apply so long as 1292 holds for the Minor 4 flat option.

The bears are obviously still in control.

I briefly introduced a more bullish count earlier today so I'll re-post this one as well. This would be the bull's next best option should 1292 fail.

SPX - Ultra Bull Option

A nice 50% retracement for minute [2] right at the lower end of the channel at 1290 would work for this count option.

5/16/12 - EOD Update - Its Most Likely A Diagonal [11:29 PM Update]

[11:29 PM Update]

Remember this one?


[9:55 PM Update]

I wanted to add the bigger picture for the 60 min charts posted below at EOD.

Minor 4 Flat Option

Note the extension targets for minute [c] at 1.38 and 1.618 times. Pretty close.

Intermediate (B) Complete

However, if this is the correct count, this market is going down...


EOD Update

More chop again so I'm leaning more towards some form of diagonal/wedge here. What that diagonal/wedge represents depends upon whether the bear or Minor 4 flat option is playing out.

If this is not some type of diagonal, the bears are gonna flush the market down since there are now a quintuple nested 1s and 2s down.

The bulls need to show up really soon or the bears are gonna flush this market lower as it is winding up a series of 1s and 2s. The bulls best hope at the moment is that the market continue to chop down here if the proposed ED is playing out.

BEARS

BULLS

5/14/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 10 Min 

Was looking for five waves down and so far the market has provided that. The question now is how does this fit in the bigger picture.

BEAR

If you are a believer of this count, then another gap and go selling should occur tomorrow. However, the alternate is that wave 1 just completed today and a wave 2 bounce should be expected.

Minor 4 Flat

This count certainly may have wave C complete now, however, I can easily see a Ending diagonal play out if the market struggles here to find a bottom.

Obviously the bears are in control here so the bulls better show up if they want to save 1292.

5/11/12 - EOD Update

What a boring day today. Nothing has really changed from yesterday's EOD Update. However, the bears are building their case here and next week may see a big move in a 3 of 3 down if the bulls do not step in.

A weekly MACD bear crossed was confirmed with this red week and price remains below several key MAs.

THE BEAR CASE

There may be a gap and go red day starting Monday if this count is set to go.

Minor 4 Flat

However, until 1343 is taken out, the bulls still have a count that may save them.

10 Min

Once again, the move off the the 5/1 high may still be working on five waves down.

If your following the bear count, that would represent wave 1 and if following the flat it may represent the end of wave C of the flat.

Extension?

This may be implying that one more wave time may be in store only to complete an extended wave down. Whether that is wave 1 of the bear count or wave C of the flat count remains to be seen.

Daily Bollinger Bands

Its very possible a 'W' bottom may be developing here, if so, a test of the 20 day SMA should be next up if this is playing out.