7/31/12 - EOD Update

15 min

Green, Blue and Red are the near term 15 min options.

Green and Red are looking for a retrace near 1360 to complete c/y or iii respectively.

Blue is looking for 4 to wrap up somewhere near 1375-1370.

Bear

 This count is setting up for a disappointment on Mr B's part.

Bull

This view doesn't make quite that much sense anymore. We'll see.

7/30/12 - EOD Update [2:30 PM Update]

[2:30 PM Update]

Diagonal Option

I forgot to post this updated chart. I had been tracking this count/move over the past few weeks. Bulls need to keep this in mind because when I first posted this, I cautioned that a much higher retrace should be expected. Well now that the 78% retracement target has been met, the bears do have something to work with here.

EOD Update 

The market appears to have completed five waves up off the 7/24 low. However there is a strong case for just three waves up having completed as well. As the market pushed slightly higher today, it was rejected by the TL connecting the 4/2 - 5/1 highs.

10 Min 

If five waves have in fact completed, the market should correct here to a proper fib retracement for a wave 2 or b. I have a target near 1367 (38%) - 1352 (62%).

However, if the alternate count is that only three waves have completed, we should expect a shallow range sideways for a wave 4.

Either way, based on the squiggle above, we should be looking for a wave iii/c down next. iii/c=i/a at 1375.

Bear

If you are a bear, you are hoping that Mr B disappoints in 2 days.

Bull

Not really liking this as the bull's best count but that is the bull's best count.

7/27/12 - EOD Update

Here comes the bulls. They managed to break out of the range since late June. If anything a new higher high has been made while higher lows continue to hold. A daily MACD bull crossed occurred today and the weekly is looking to cross as well.

With all that thought I'm still having a hard time with the most bullish count here and believe it has to be some form of a larger leading diagonal which may have completed today or early next week. If the LD count I have is to remain valid, the market cannot take out 1394 or wave 5 will be > 3.

10 Min 

Per the 10 min count, wave 3 may have completed. We now much watch for a wave 4 pullback I'll be watching the Fib targets below.

Bear

The bears have chosen to take the complex corrective route as proposed the other night. Until 1422 is taken out, the bear count remains valid.

Bull - Diagonal

Wave 5 cannot exceed 1394. Lets see if the 5/1-7/19 TL has any influence on the move higher.

BB

The market closed above the upper BB so lets see if it pulls back inside for wave 4 per the 10 min chart.

7/27/12 - Pre Market Update

ES

Looks like ES formed a triangle and completed wave 3 last night after my 8:45 PM Update. Looks to be on track with cash as either wave 4 completed or wave a of 4.

7/26/12 - EOD Update [8:45 PM Update]

[8:45 PM Update]

ES

ES appears to be tracking along with the green cash count. We'll see what the overnight brings.

EOD Update 

Its nice to see the market tag 1350 and more as suspected yesterday. The market also managed to close back over the 20 day SMA.

The move also helped dwindle down the count options down to 2 on the 10 min chart.

I'm keeping an eye on the weekly MACD here as it is turning bullish but wait and see first for a cross.

10 Min 

Green is working on five waves up with and extended wave 3. Black considers the move out of the diagonal as complete.

Bear

The 10 min black option correlates with the bear count above.

Bull

The 10 min green count option correlates with the bull.

Complex Corrective

And introducing another option that favors a push higher, however, only treats the move off the 1266 low as corrective.

7/25/12 - EOD Update

An interesting day given AAPL's results. As I pointed out intraday,  a falling wedge pattern had formed and the market moved out of it.

I'm thinking short term, the market may want to attempt one more push towards 1350. As one can see on the short term 10 min chart, there are several options that may favor one more push. I removed the bearish nested 1-2 i-ii count, however, it certainly remains valid.

10 Min 

Is the market aiming for one more tag of 1350?

Bear

The adjusted bear count implies possilbly another stab higher out of the leading diagonal. But just as I mentioned above, the bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down option is still in play unless the market rallies over 1352.xx.

Bull

Should this wedge represent the end of wave b of 5, we may see another push higher beyond 1350.

7/24/12 - EOD Update

The bears are in full attack mode right now. A very bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down has setup.

The only thing the bulls have going for them right now is a short term (5-30 min) MACD +ve divergence, five waves up off the day's low, a bounce off the May-June TL and a close above the 50 day SMA.

Bear

Note the head and shoulders pattern as well. A test of the June low is a very good possibility.

The alternate for the above is that only wave 1 red has completed and a much steeper wave 2 retrace would begin tomorrow if this nested 1-2 i-ii does not materialize.

If one has been tracking my 10 min chart, it would follow the black option.

 Bull

The best case scenario for the bulls right now is the black count on this chart and that is not long term.

7/23/12 - EOD Update

5 Min 

 Are the bulls setting up one last push here or are the bears setting up for their 3 of 3 event?

Bull

The market continues to make higher highs and higher lows so the variant of the diagonal option is presented and must be considered.

Bear

The bears are setting up a 3 of 3 event here this week once 2 is complete.

7/20/12 - EOD Update

10 Min

 The rally off the 6/4 low is certainly coming to an end if it has not already done so.

The primary green count above, calls for one final push higher to complete five waves up. However, the move off the 7/20 may be considered a five wave impulse down.

This would fit with all three options below. We shall see next week. Perhaps the market provides another opportunity to get out of longs if one has not already done so.

Bear

Bull

Diagonal

7/19/12 - EOD Update

10 Min 

I believe wave 4 is in progress. Whether it turns into a flat or triangle, we'll just have to see.

7/18/12 - EOD Update

Diagonal

c almost = a.

10 Min 

Looks like the bulls may have one more push for 1380 in a wave v of 3. Note how that corresponds to a wave v of 3 of C as well for the purple option.

If the bears have anything to say about this, the counter trend bounce may have ended at today's high per the red option.

Bear

Bull

This would be the bulls' best count at the moment. Once the diagonal completes, we should expect a pretty large retrace out of this.

7/17/12 - EOD Update [6:31 PM Update]

[6:31 PM Update]

Forgot to include this earlier. Still on track.

EOD Update 

The bulls may have their eyes set on the 1380-1290 target. After testing the 20 day SMA today, the market rallied from there and appears to be setting up a bullish nested 1-2 i-ii setup per the green option below.

10 Min 

60 Min 

7/16/12 - EOD Update

I apologize for the issues with the chat room. It appears the hosting service made some recent changes. I hope to have this resolved by tomorrow.

5 Min

 Four options near term. 3 of 4 point to some more upside near term. 1 points lower towards 1346 before resuming higher.

Still watching this option which is implying a tag near 1380-90.

7/13/12 - EOD Update

The bulls surely stepped in today on bank rally. However, the burden is still on the bulls to prove that they are leading a new charge higher.

Near term, there may be another opportunity to buy a dip here on a wave 2/b pullback. See the 5 min chart below.

I have a few other count options that also support the view that the market may take another stab at 1389. We'll see.

5 Min

One more dip to buy?

Bear

Either the bears step in next week, or a one more dip may be bought near term.

Bull

Bollinger Bands

The bulls regained the 20 day SMA after bouncing off the 50 day. Watch for a possible cross on MACD.

Diagonal Option

Here's a follow up chart that I proposed several days ago that was implying a charge towards the 78% retracement at 1389. The near term counts may be supporting this and this may be supporting another push towards 1389.

60 Min -Leading Diagonal Option

Another option that may support another move to 1389.

7/13/12

I was too busy last night to post an EOD update. This is basically what I am tracking at the moment.

7/11/12 - EOD Update

The bears dropped the market below 1334.40 intraday, which invalidated the more bullish bull option. They also closed the market just below the 20 day SMA for a second day in a row.

The bulls defended the lower the TL of the rising wedge; leading diagonal if your bullish and bearish rising wedge if your bearish ;)

5 Min

A slight adjustment to yesterday's count looking for a bounce. When I called the triangle playing out today just before the FOMC announcement, I then knew the five waves down was not yet complete.

After the announcement, a completed wave looks to be complete right at the lower TL of the wedge. The market bounced from there into the close so we'll see if we now get our bounce. This bounce is implied by both the bear and bull counts below. How high is what separates the two.

Daily

Bear

Did wave [2] start near EOD? We'll see. Fib targets are 1348 (38%), 1353 (50%) and 1358 (62%).

Bull

The bulls are trying for a fifth wave to cap off the LD. We'll see.