5/31/13 - EOD Update

The market may be looking to target 1600 now where C=A.

I tweeted earlier that my gut was saying the bearish triangle option was in play.

The bulls last hope is for a descending triangle now where the market needs to find support at wave a. However, with the daily MACD bear cross and a close below the 20 day SMA, I'm still leaning towards the bearish triangle target.

Have a great weekend!

15 Min 

5/31/13 - AM Update

Bulls are at a critical point here.

10 Min - 11:58 AM

The bears are ready to slam thru.

15 Min - 11:58 AM

This is the wave b triangle I mentioned in yesterday's EOD post. So be nimble and flexible. It can go either way here.

15 Min 

Possibly working on wave (b) of e for the tri. Its either a tri or not. Watch the lower TL. If it doesn't hold, a very bearish flush may come about.

10 Min 

5/30/13 - AM Update

Still watching for the potential triangle here. One thing I did not present is the fact that wave b in and of itself could be forming a triangle before one more flush down for wave c for the bears.

Of course the bears also have the potential for a wave iii flush down coming as well.

Lets see if the market chops. If it does, either either the larger triangle or determine if it is a wave b triangle.

60 Min 

5/28/13 - AM Update

Not sure about the 1 min count here. Look at the triangle below. That may be more likely.

1 Min - 12:48 PM PST

15 Min - 12:48 PM PST

5 Min 

Nine waves down. Lets see if the bounce can be sold.

1 Min 

5 Min 

Will the bears fail? Or will they have at least one more shot at a lower low?

5/26/13

Looking for the completion of this wave ii or b if it hasn't already completed.

5 Min 

60 Min 

5/24/13 - AM Update

70% retracement for wave x?

5 Min 

Still a little early to tell but futures is most likely indicating a break down out of the rising wedge.

If the market heads back towards the wave (1) low, we must watch how it does so.

If it is impulsive, than most likely wave (3) down is on.

If there is a battle and it chops back and forth towards 1635, there is a good chance it may be a wave x as labeled below.

5 Min 

5/23/13 - EOD Update

A little uncertain on the short term direction. I'm leaning towards the bulls here at the moment only because of the reversal today near the bottom.

Though the pattern appears to be a rising wedge, one can also argue for the higher lows and higher highs on the 5 min chart.

I think we may at least see a wave c bounce for (2) near a proper fib retrace target towards the 50-62% levels.

As for the bears, they also have many things going for them.

1. Again the bearish rising wedge
2. The chopped up wave pattern off today's low
3. Price retesting the underside of the blue and green trend lines that broke.
4. The market bounce to 38% which would be enough for wave (2).

I think for tomorrow though, I'm leaning for a little more of a bounce higher.

One thing to prepare for is another wild ride where the market consolidates in this range between 1687-1635. I mentioned this two days ago. 

5 Min 

60 Min 

5/23/13- AM Update

Still watching for a potential 4 zigzag/tri if c of (2) doesn't explode to 1667

5 Min 

Lets see if it chops around here. If not, a good chance five waves down has completed.

5 Min 

3 Min 

That's an impulse.

60 Min 

Trend lines breaking.

5/22/13- EOD Update

60 Min 

The bears are a little happier today. Earlier this AM, I posted that it was interesting how sharp the reversal was once wave 5 = 1.38*1.

I must admit the reversal did not quite look impulsive at first glance. In fact I tweeted that by mid-late day it was looking like a triangle again, until it doesn't. There is no denying the third leg of the pullback today is impulsive. So we'll have to see if it is a 3 of C or a larger degree wave 1 down.

I also posted yesterday that a pullback to the 1650-1620 level wouldn't be a bad thing either for the bulls by way of consolidation.

The market is now knocking on the lower TL of the little blue channel and top TL of the green channel. Lets see what the reaction is here first.

Weekly

The reversal at the top of the longer term trend lines is something to also watch.

Weekly

Here's another chart I've been meaning to post. Assuming the bounce off the 2009 low is corrective, the most logical count I could come up with is a large A-B-C, with wave C extending in a nine wave count.

I don't quite buy the triple zigzag count, however, Y=W at 1777ish.

5/22/12 - AM Update

Watching the mid-channel and MACD. Will they finally crack?

Watching this new channel here in purple if the orange TL holds. Just more extensions if it does.

Interesting reversal where 5= 1.318*1. Near the top of the two longer term TLs to boot.

60 min

5/21/13 - EOD Update

The bulls were able to overcome the bear count option that was presented last night. After tagging 1675, the market reversed course and is trying to breath some life into the bears.

However, a potential ascending triangle may be in the works here if the bulls plan to continue working up the channel.

I'm not thoroughly convinced the bears have any chance at the moment. One thing that may give the bears some chance of at least a pullback is the cup and handle target (weekly chart below) has been met. I posted an update to that chart several months back. Heck I posted the notion of a cup and handle two years ago here.

We'll see, some consolidation would not be bad for the bulls so pullback to 1620-1650 wouldn't hurt. We'll see.

3 Min 

60 Min 

Still watching what MACD does here as it compresses.

Weekly

5/21/13 - AM Update

Switched to 3 min view. H/S neckline break. Watching MACD here for a breakout or breakdown.
1666 target.

3 Min 

60 Min 

Bears failed.

1 Min 

Lets see who prevails here.

1 Min 

1 Min 

Bears are cutting it close here.

5/20/13 - EOD Update

The bears formed a decent five potential down per the 1 min chart but need to step on the gas tomorrow. They certainly must hold the red horizontal line at today's high if they want to have any chance.

As for the bulls, they may have just completed wave 4 purple of v of 5 per the 60 min chart. Wave 4 purple could require some more time so we'll keep an eye out for the triangle or flat potential.

The hourly MACD is compressing into a rising wedge while forming -ve divergence.

1 Min 

60 Min 

5/20/13 - AM Update

Sorry folks. Made a mistake. I adjusted the chart below. Bulls are not out of this yet for wave 4 purple of v black as it relates to the 60 min chart below.

1 Min 

Bears got their five wave move on the lower degrees. Now lets see if they can make a bigger five wave move down.

1 Min 

Using the 60 min chart below for perspective, the bulls need to defend the purple line if this is only a wave 4 purple of v black pull back. If it fails, there is a good chance v of 5 is complete.

1 Min 

The case for five waves down completed is in red.

1 Min 

Only a 1 min view but watch watch iv.

* The comment on the chart should read, "iv 'cannot' overlap here"

1 Min 

 Been out of pocket for a bit folks. Updates will still be minimal.

Some upper channels to watch near 1700.

60 Min 

Weekly

5/14/13 - EOD Update

60 Min 

Watching the reaction at the top of the blue channel. MACD continues to -vely diverge on the hourly. We'll see.

5/14/13- AM Update

60 Min - 7:25 AM

The triangle proved to be the correct pattern and the trend has continued.

Now the market has a pretty clear five wave move off wave 4 (4/18/13). Wave 5 = 1 and is peeking over the upper channel.

Lets see what comes from this. A potential short position could be in order.

5/13/13 - AM Update

It was a triangle indeed. Lets see if 1640 is the target.

60 Min- 10:20 AM 

15 Min - AM Update

H/S still in play and now a potential diamond reversal. However, the potential triangle is keeping things a little neutral here.

Until the bears can prove themselves, have to go with the trend.

5/11/13

The H/S pattern is still in play and a potential triangle wave b may be developing or just a complex wave 2 flat. The bulls will wipe either option out with a new high over 1535.01.

5 Min 

15 Min 

60 min