8/30/13 - EOD Update

So long August. Hello Sept.

Daily and weekly negative MACD divergence in play. So with that, the bearish red and purple options are my top choices right now.


However, something I'll be watching is the potential for the purple wedgish pattern developing.
If the market is set to bounce, now would be a good time at the trendline connecting the 11/16/12 - 6/24/13 lows.

60 Min 

8/29/13 - AM Update

All goes as planned. Watching the red option and so far (c) purple = (a) purple. If it extends 1.618 times, it should hit near the upper trend channel.

60 Min  - 7:48 AM

8/28/13 - EOD Update

The red option is still looking good and on track. The market has formed a + divergence on the hourly, which would line up with the expected wave 2 bounce.

Still watching purple and a distant green.

60 Min 

8/27/13 - EOD Update

As I posted Monday, the red option is right on track and it appears that wave v of 1 is nearly complete. Still unsure if it will throw-under the lower channel but a bounce for wave 2 should be coming up.

In the AM Update, I mentioned that this is the first time in a while the bears have been able to print a clear five wave move down at a much larger wave degree. Lets see if they can follow through with this.

I introduced the purple option yesterday and it is more bearish so we should keep an eye for another potential flush below the blue trend line if this option is in play.

The green option is in last place here but we'll keep an eye on it too in the event that this was just a mere double zigazag.

60 Min 

8/27/13 - AM Update

Haven't had a chance to count the squiggles for wave v but it is very possible that it could be complete or nearing completion near the intersection of the blue green trendline without the throw under.

So if the market does not collapse further at these TLs, perhaps a bounce is coming for a higher degree wave 2.

60 Min - 12:05 PM

The red option is on the money right now and purple definitely should be watched from here. As mentioned yesterday, we could be looking for a wave v throw-under.

The bears finally put in a very clear five wave move down at a much larger degree so bulls should be cautious if and when a wave 2 or b bounce occurs. It may very well be a bull trap.

60 Min - 11:12 AM

8/26/13 - EOD Update

The red option still looks to be on track. The market broke down out of the rising wedge.

The market remains in the descending channel and with the wave iv throw-over out of the upper channel, we may see a wave v throw-under below the lower channel.

I have added the purple option. Something to be aware of.

60 Min 

8/23/13 - EOD Update

the bounce so far off the 8/21 low looks like a nice {a}-{b}-{c} bounce for wave iv with wave {c} possibly forming an ending diagonal.

The entire {a}-{b}-{c} structure so far looks like a rising wedge itself.

We'll give the bulls the benefit of the doubt here too with the green count option. The 20 day SMA would be a likely target for the bounce.

60 Min 

8/23/13 - PM Update

60 Min - 12:07 PM

8/22/13 - EOD Update

Not much to add here. Wave iv red looks to be on track. Leaving room for a completed five waves down as well.

60 Min 

8/21/13 - PM Update

Looks like the short term trades have been stopped out sooner. It does look like wave iii has completed and the market should be working on wave iv up now.

60 Min 

8/20/13 - PM Update

Looks like wave {iv} is in progress. So far the most likely scenario is a wave a of {iv}. The bears have a clear line to defend.


 The bulls do have a case for a completed a-b-c down to yesterday's low, however, daily and weekly negative divergence may pose more trouble for them. This bounce may very well just be a backtest of the 50 day SMA.

60 Min - 12:21 PM

8/19/13 - EOD Update

Da bulls should probably be cautious here because the bears are building some momentum with this wave. 1635 has wave iii or c at 2.618* i or a.

The 13 week EMA was taken out there is negative divergence on the daily and weekly.

The 200 day sits at 1550 so something the bears may have their eyes on.

60 Min

8/15/13 - AM Update

Some targets for 3 or c if 2 or b is complete.

1 Min - 9:53 AM

Should you need a visual for the trade setup.

1 Min - 9:37 AM

Five waves up. Can trade this pullback

1 Min - 9:35 AM

I forget if I have posted this weekly option in the past. I believe I did previously post that bears should not get too excited yet if the market takes a step back here.

The 13 week EMA has been relevant for a bit so lets see if it comes into play again.

Weekly

The primary has finally played out. As I mentioned Tues, I wouldn't be surprised if the bullish triangle would fail.

60 Min - 7:12 AM

8/14/13 - AM Update

I'm starting to watch for this red triangle for a wave b if the bulls can't get something going here.

60 min - 11:08 AM

8/13/13 - EOD Update

Yesterday I mention there was a third option to consider should the market bounce. We'll there you have it, the triangle option. This is something to keep an eye on.

The red option is still in play and considered the primary unless the head is taken out. The alternate red option is also in play.

We'll see if the subwaves for wave d of the triangle play out some more. One thing I don't like about the triangle for a wave 4 is its size relative to wave 2 so I wouldn't be surprised if the triangle fails.

60 Min 

8/12/13 - EOD Update

I was out of town but looks like I did not miss too much. The H/S top continues to form and the red count option still applies. An alternate version of the red count may see one more bounce for wave ii or b.

The third option I did not highlight in the chart below is the potential triangle that could be forming. I have this tri starting on 7/26 and wave c of the tri ending today. I will not consider it seriously unless we see a quick bounce tomorrow for wave d and/or if the market continues to chop up and down here.

60 Min 

8/8/13 - AM Update

H/S on track.

60 min- 7:44 AM

Red called on the money. Wave 2 up to 62% and 1700. Lets see if the bears do something about this now. If not, we'll keep an eye out for a potentially larger degree five wave bounce up.

The black option is out.

5 Min  - 6:51 AM

8/7/13 - EOD Update

The market bounced off the 20 day SMA in five waves. The red count option leads the way. There are a few other short term options as well so we'll be mindful of those as the waves play out.

I'm guessing tomorrow should see a wave c of 2 rise to possibly challenge the 1700 level.

This would also form a symmetrical right shoulder (see hourly).

There is a triple -ve daily MACD divergence.

The bears should not get too excited yet though. See the weekly chart below. This is a variant of an extended wave I have posted in the past. Should the H/S play out, it may only be yet another pause before the extension moves higher.

We'll see.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Daily

Weekly

8/7/13 - AM Update

Lets see if they make five waves up.

5 Min - 11:51 AM

Some short term options.

5 Min - 9:49 AM

Things are lining up nicely for the bears. They have finally managed to form five waves down on the 5 min along with a triple -ve daily MACD divergence.

The 60 min chart shows the potential for a head and shoulders in the works. The right should would line up with a wave 2 bounce so lets keep an eye on this.

5 MIN - 7:13 AM

60 Min - 7:13 AM

8/6/13 - EOD Update

The triangle obviously failed today. At the moment, the count is a battle between the black and red option.

The purple option is splittin the quiggles a bit so to keep it simple, either the bears are attempting to launch five little red waves down or the bulls make one more stand here and try for 1718 once more.

There is a triple daily -ve divergence on MACD. The bears are trying to form a head and shoulders top as well on the hourly. We'll see.

5 Min -

60 Min 

8/6/13 - AM Update

An alternate bull count.

5 Min - 11:55 AM

60 Min - 11:55 AM

5 min - 8:39 AM

8/5/13 - EOD Update

Does the triangle play out again? So far it is the most obvious. The thrust target is approx at 1718.

5 Min 

60 Min 

8/5/13 - AM Update

Here's the thrust target near 1718.

60 Min - 12:29 PM

5 Min- 11:21 AM

8/2/13 - EOD Update

In the past two sessions, after initially poking higher, the market moved off the high in a teeny tiny five wave move. One would think with a very clear five wave move down, a nice little short trade on the bounce would be likely.

These attempts did not pan out since the market continued to poke above the intraday high, ruling out the "impulsive" five wave move down that was initially thought to have occurred.

As the chart below suggests, the market began wave v of 5 into the close. We'll see if the 1715-1720 level is the target.

Some Fib targets for wave 5 using the terminus for wave 4? black:

5=.618*1 @ 1715
5=1 @ 1742

If using wave 4 purple:

5=.618*1 @ 1723
5=1@ 1748

60 Min 

8/2/13- AM Update

1 min update.

1 min - 11:25 AM

Almost 2 hrs later and looks like wave c may be working towards completion.

1 Min - 9:48 AM

Here is the chart highlighting the five down, five up structure I tweeted earlier. We'll see if the blue abc bounce is correct.

1 Min - 7:53 AM

 Keepin an eye on the wave iv purple overlap into wave i. If so, perhaps 5 green is in.

60 Min - 7:48 AM

8/1/13 - EOD Update

The market went with what I thought was the obvious triangle. However, a closer examination of the squiggles may not support this.

Wave 4 may have just completed on 7/26 but as you can see, there are a few places we could consider wave 4 complete due to the chop.

Anyway, its pretty clear wave 5 is in progress. No real way to know for sure when it ends but just keep an eye on the BBs and wave 5 Fib extensions. I'm watching 1715-1720, which is what the triangle thrust target would be. This also lines up with the daily and weekly upper BB.

Until the bears can launch a decent size/degree five wave decline, we must continue to look higher with each pullback.

60 Min

8/1/13 - AM Update

Five tiny waves down off the day's high.

1 Min - 8:06 AM

I will use this time to remind folks of this chart and count. The green count here is the ultra bullish option showing wave (3) in an extension. Either it extends in 9 waves or 13.

The black option is the longer term bearish count waiting for a wave C extension to complete or a complex wave Y. One must ask themselves though, should a correction be this bullish?

Weekly

Happy August. Looks like the market went with the obvious. All the chop was the clue.

The flat option is not out yet since it now becomes an expanded flat potential. At the moment though, green is back in the game as a wave 5 in progress to wrap this all up near the upper channel unless it decides to truncate.

If we treat this tri also as a cup and handle, I see a 1722 target.

60 Min - 6:52 AM