3/31/14 - AM Update

[9:38 AM] - If you believe it is a triangle. Not quite sure how that fits in to the bigger picture. I still like it better as a wave ii of 5.

9:38 AM

[8:00 AM] - Still chopping up and down. The triangle is not out yet.

8:00 AM

8:00 AM

3/28/14 - AM Update

[6:41 AM] - There's the wave [c] I was expecting. Now we must also watch out for a potential five wave move up.

6:41 AM

3/27/14 - EOD Update

I believe wave [c] up should occur tomorrow. Will also monitor for a wave 3 up as well.

3/27/14 - AM Update

[7:31 AM] - Did a w-x-y just complete or a nested 1-2 down for wave C.

7:31 AM

7:31 AM

3/26/14 - EOD Update

Still looking good for the red labels. We'll see if a larger gap and go down wave (iii) occurs tomorrow.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Haven't forgotten about the triangle potential yet either.

3/26/14 - AM Update

[6:34 AM] - It's over for the bears over the red line.

6:34 AM

3/25/14 - EOD Update

Still lots of chop going on here. Naturally, one would assume some type of consolidation is going on a la a triangle.

I'm leaning towards wave c red completing down though. The target would be between 1840-1812 (extension target range).

5 Min 

60 Min 

TNX

Rates about to take a dive? Would fit with wave C red on SPX.

3/25/14 - AM Update

[7:46 AM] - We'll see if wave (ii) is complete.

7:46 Am

3/24/14 - EOD Update

Last week the bulls bounced the market but the bears quickly stepped in and I tweeted that a possible double top could be in.

one could argue a double top on my 5 min chart but not sure how that fits into an EW count.
— Grand (@grand680) March 21, 2014

I then tweeted this chart highlighting the flat.

that flat would look like the red count pic.twitter.com/G023TO8PDN
— Grand (@grand680) March 21, 2014

So far it is looking decent. I'm also keeping an eye out for a potential ending diagonal on the daily.

5 Min 

60 Min 

3/21/14 - AM Update

[6:41 AM] Yesterday I posted that the bull's were attempting a nest 1-2 option (5 min) chart. That is exactly what they did and ruled out the H/S.

Now the question is are we in a wave 3 of 5 (60 min) or is the market going to form an Ending diagonal (daily)?

5 Min 

60 Min 

daily

3/20/14 - AM Update

[8:00 AM] The only chart for me today. Bulls trying to make a stand here. Best case for them is a nested 1-2 up. We'll see if the bears can make a wave y down.

8:00 AM

3/19/14 - EOD Update

Short term, lets see if the bulls step in to launch this higher. If not, I think the scenarios in the 60 min below is what may be playing out.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Keeping an eye on the potential triangle forming. However, I'm suspecting wave ii on this chart may not be complete yet. Another push lower could tag the 50 day SMA.

3/19/14 - AM Update

[11:03 AM] - No triangle. Lets see if this is (a) of ii or (i) of a new larger leg down. We will leave room for a flat here as well.

11:03 AM

[9:40 AM] - Possible wave (iv) triangle?

9:40 AM

[7:17 AM] - Lets see if there are five complete waves here.

7:17 AM

3/18/14 - AM Update

[10:36 AM] If the bulls are working on five waves up, wave (v) maxes out at 1884, otherwise it will be > (iii). It doesn't have to project to that level, just pointing out the maximum length for wave (v).

Wave (v) just has to poke slightly over (iii) to be deemed complete.

10:36 AM

[8:10 AM] - The line the bulls need to defend.

8:10 AM

3/17/14 -EOD Update

I was watching that wedge last Fri. The bulls broke thru the wedge and charged hard.

However, the bears are thinking right shoulder. Tbe H/S targets approximately 1790. That would make a 62% retracement of the move since the 2/4 low. We'll see who wins this.

3/17/14 - AM update

[9:15 AM] - A break out of the wedge that looks very corrective. I can't justify a leading diagonal for the bears either. The only thing is a larger corrective but a new low will have to be made first.

9:15 AM

3/16/14

Last Thurs, as we were trying to figure out the near term picture, I posted that bigger picture I wanted to see the market pull back to the 50 day SMA.

So far that appears to be the case. It will be interesting what happens if and when it gets there. Note on the 60 min chart, either all five waves up are complete or waves i of 5 is complete.

Will wave ii complete near the 50 day SMA? Or again, have all five waves completed of the 13 wave extension?

5 Min

60 Min 

Daily Extended

Triple -ve divergence. Maybe 200 day target below?

Daily

Approaching the 50 day and lower BB.

3/14/14 - AM Update

[8:36 AM]- The only chart I can get out today. Watch this wedge.

8:36 AM

3/13/14 - EOD Update

[EOD Update] - The market bounced as expected and the third wave up hit within 2 points of the target before reversing course throughout the day on the shooting star (hourly) and up against the trend line resistance.

I mentioned last night that we would have to reassess once the bounce came since MACD (daily) was crossing down.

As the wave continued to impulse down, I pointed towards the alternate count I posted last night in green. So far wave c of y = a. We'll see if this is enough for wave ii (per 60 min chart).

5 Min 

60 Min 

Though I feel a bounce may be coming, the bulls have to be cautious here. Daily MACD crossed down with triple -ve divergence. All five waves up can be accounted for.

Daily

TNX

3/13/14 - AM Update

[10:47 AM] We'll see if the bulls can save this. Wave c of y = a and at 78% retracement now.

10:47 AM

[9:30 AM] - Watching for a potential double bottom. My green y is in play here. I still can't count an impulse wave down off the 3/7 high.

Of course we can't discount the triple -ve divergence playing out either on the daily. So we'll keep in mind the 50 day SMA below as previously posted.

9:30 AM

[8:44 AM] - Lets see how high it bounces.

8:44 AM

[8:31 AM] - As I tweeted earlier, one more little LL and bears make five waves.

8:31 AM

[7:00 AM] The market rose as expected. Wave iii is just about 1.618* i. It is now coming up on some trend lines and MACD (hourly) about to issue a buy signal.

7:00 AM

7:00 AM

3/12/14 - EOD Update

[1:31 PM - 1 Min Update] - Ok. I believe this is how we get waves 1 and 2 up off today's low.

1 Min 

Here's the adjustment to the 5 min chart to correspond with the 1 min view above.

5 Min 

[EOD Update] - Unwound the shorts in the AM because the move lower found support at the 20 day SMA, 1850 level, double talk target and wave (c) =1.618*(a).

We also can't ignore that the wave structure off my wave 1 high does not look impulsive what so ever.

I think the bulls have another leg higher to go to at least 1875 . It is difficult to find an impulse up off the day's low, but we can't ignore the bounce off key levels mentioned above.

The bulls also formed a bullish daily hammer candlestick. It is up to them to follow through tomorrow to confirm the reversal potential.

I give the bulls an edge leading in to tomorrow and positioned for it.

Note on the 5 min chart I have added a green alternate in the event that wave y is not complete.

So short term, lets see a bounce higher tomorrow and then reassess. We still can't ignore on a little longer time frame (daily) that MACD is rolling over (creating a triple -ve divergence) and the McClellan is still diverging.

GL!

5 Min 

Daily

TNX

I'm still watching the 10 year for clues. So far sold down to the 50 day. We'll see if wave d green is coming up (which means stocks go lower) or wave c blue down (stocks go higher)