1/30/15 - EOD Update

I'm still leaning towards the bears's side. The leading expanding diagonal continues to build for the bears. Wave -v of the diagonal most likely began today

5 Min 

60 MIn 

Will the triangle hold?

Daily

I lean towards wave C of (4) is underway.

1/29/15 - EOD Update

Ha. Many moons ago at the during the first week of January, I posted that we should keep an eye on a range since the market was very choppy.

Yesterday I mentioned that the triangle had not been ruled out yet and today, the market bounced hard at the lower trendline of the triangle I have been tracking for some time now.

Wave E is a very legitimate double zigzag. The bulls have bolster their case and though I love spotting triangles to trade, for some reason I find this one suspect.

The leading expanding diagonal is not out yet either so I would rather the bulls clear this triangle first before giving them the edge. So I'd have to say I am still leaning towards the bear's case.

5 Min 

60 Min 

1/28/15 - EOD Update

Earlier today I tweeted that a possible leading expanding diagonal was forming off the wave D high. So far that has played out along with the bearish view I continue to hold.

However, the triangle is still not out and I have been looking for this pullback to form wave E from the bullish standpoint.

Opening bell rips are being sold so I think better for bulls to be cautious at this point.

5 Min 

60 Min 

1/28/15 - AM Update

7:35 AM - The possible leading expanding diagonal I tweeted earlier.

7:35 AM - 60 Min 

1/27/15- EOD Update

Lots of chop again. As of last Fri, I was leaning slight bearish in anticipation of deeper wave E retracing in addition to the red count.

Its till anyone's game at this point. I continue to lean towards the bearish side for now though. The daily chart is looking for the completion of wave C of (4) for the bears.

I'd like to see the bulls take out 2060 first and ideally a new high above 2100. The bulls best case at the moment is an ending diagonal in the works (daily chart).

60 Min 

ES

Daily

1/27/15 - AM Update

Three waves down so far for wave E. Looks like it also hit 50% retracement of wave D and backtesting the dotted trendline.

We'll see if the bulls can turn this around from here since E is technically done, but can certainly retrace or chop lower or the bears continue to build on wave iii down.

6:49 AM -60 Min

1/25/15

The triangle is still looking good on ES. A possible five waves down forming off wave D. 

ES

1/23/15 - EOD Update

Still trying to figure out what the market wants to do. Yesterday I gave the bulls the slight edge after taking it away from the bears but now I'm leaning slight bearish again. See below.

The red count on the 60 min chart supports the wave C? of (4) for the daily. The blue count for the triangle supports the potential ED option.

60 Min 

Daily

Daily

The bulls reclaimed the 50 DMA and broke out of the descending channel. However, the 20 DMA cross below the 50 DMA and notice the backtest and rejection of the trendline?

1/22/15 - EOD Update

Big move today but not much resolution. However, the bulls were able to level the playing field and take a slight edge.

60 Min 

1/21/15 - EOD Update

8:22 PM - ES is sporting a pretty good looking triangle. We'll see if wave E is on tap.

ES

EOD Update - What do you want me to say? Nothing really to add other than the potential bearish nested i ii -i - ii down to add to the bearish H/S.

The bulls still have their triangle.

60 Min 

Daily

I'll give the bears a slight edge here unless the bulls can break out of the channel and reclaim the falling 20 DMA. 

1/20/15 - EOD Update

Not much to post tonight. Lots of chop and the triangle option still looks good as well as the bearish H/S.

60 Min 

1/16/15 - EOD Update

Since the 1/6/15 post, I stated that we should be looking for a range to trade. Since then, I have posted the possibility of a triangle playing out, which would be a fitting pattern as the market trades in the range.

Though the bear count is not out yet, the triangle I have presented continues to build its case.

The market also bounced right at the dotted lines I was watching this past Weds.  Yesterday, I highlighted a potential falling wedge that would represent a wave c of C of the triangle.

So far today, the market bounced at the dotted lines forming a potential double bottom and blasted out of the falling wedge.

Again, both bulls and bears have legitimate counts. Its best to remain nimble and trade within this range.

60 Min 

1/15/15 - EOD Update

Wild and crazy market. As I write this, futures are down 14 points. If it holds that favors the red count.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Here's a follow up to the RUT's potential flat I posted a while back.

1/15/15 - AM Update

6:42 AM - Buying this. Stop below wave i or a.

6:42 AM - 1 Min 

1/14/15 - EOD Update

This AM I was keeping an eye on the dotted lines and a potential double bottom. So far it looks like the market may have begun the bounce there. The hourly is showing a potential +ve divergence as well.

It is still a struggle between the two. The triangle pattern is starting to gain some traction but the red bearish count is still very well in play.

Short term, I lean towards a bounce that may challenge the 20 and 50 DMA again.

1/14/15 - AM Update

6:25 AM - Red is the primary but watching the dotted lines below (60 min ) and potential double bottom (5 min).

6:25 AM - 5 Min 

6:25 AM - 60 Min 

1/13/15 - AM Update

6:59 AM - Some of the options. In case you were wondering, the 5min red option from yesterday's post is out. The hourly red option is still in play along with the combo corrective and triangle potentials.

6:59 AM - 60 Min 

6:50 AM - Longer timeframe, keep eyeing the range.

6:50 AM - 60 Min

1/12/15 - EOD Update

I relabeled the blue count to a corrective abc bounce. I just can't find an impulsive count for what I have labeled wave a  and so far what would be wave b is a very deep pullback, which I was previously tracking as a wave 4.

The red count is the primary at the moment. Price is below the 20 DMA, which I believe is below the 50 DMA.

5 Min 

Daily Bollinger Bands

1/12/15 - AM Update

8:22 AM - Lets see if the bears create five waves down. Invalidation point in red.

8:22 AM - 5 min

6:51 AM - An hourly perspective shows the battle between bulls and the bears. Since 1/6, I posted that we should anticipate a range developing. So lets continue to monitor this.

6:51 AM - 60 Min 

6:43 AM - The red count option is the one to watch at the moment. The blue count option does not have the right look or proportionality.

The only other option that would makes sense for blue is that five waves have completed off the 1/6/15 low and now a three wave corrective move is in progress off the 1/9/15 high.

6:43 AM - 5 Min 

1/9/15 - AM Update

7:11 AM - For those who want to track the extended [iii squiggles.

7:11 AM - 5 Min 

7:00 AM - We'll see how far this pulls back. If the bulls are in play, they are still extending wave [iii.

7:00 AM - 5 Min 

1/8/15 - AM Update

11:28 AM - So far so good. All targets met so far and the bulls are back in contention. That is a sharp looking V bottom. But before da bulls get too happy, just a reminder that this puppy may just trade in the 2k - 2100 range so we'll just count three waves at a time.

The burden is on the bulls to reclaim new highs too since the bears have what appears as five waves down off the 209x high.

11:28 AM - 1 Min 

11:28 AM - 5 Min 

1/7/15 - EOD Update

2:10 PM  Update - Added the 1 min squiggle breakdown. There are three options on this chart.

1 Min 

EOD Update -  Da bulls stepped in at 2k and the 100 DMA. So far the squiggles count best as a double zigzag that requires one more wave [c push towards the 2042-2054 area.

The bulls best count is a triple nested 1-2. Hmm. That's a lil suspect but in this volatile market, anything is possible. As I posted yesterday, we should be looking to identify a range. Possibly a good chance it chops around the 2k-2100 level. 

ES - 5 Min 

1/7/15- AM Update

11:16 AM - Inv H/S?

ES - 11:16 AM

10:13 AM - Hmm. Triple nest 1-2s for da bulls or just a double zigzag for the bears?

10:13 AM - 1 Min 

7:45 AM - Da bulls better hope the nested 1-2 is playing out.

6:57 AM - Wave [c extension targets.

6:27 AM - So far the market is reacting favorably to the ADP numbers.

6:27 AM  - ES - 60 Min 

1/6/14 -EOD Update

ES sports a cleaner looking five waves down then cash. 

SPX - 5 Min 

ES - 60 Min 

1/6/15 - AM Update

11:58 AM- Lets see if the blue count is working on one final wave ({5)  down to complete [c or all five waves down for red is complete and set to bounce at 2000 here.

11:58 AM - 5 Min 

9:20 AM - Looks like the bears have now created a larger degree five wave move down. I have adjusted the 5 min chart accordingly.

I am posting the daily chart to highlight the possibilities I am tracking. Given the five wave move down, I have to learn towards the bear side.

However, because the daily chart highlights several possibilities that implies lots of chop to come, we should be looking for a range to trade.

Let's see if 2000 provides support here and a bounce.

5 Min 

Daily