3/31/15 - EOD Update

As I posted yesterday I gave the bears the slight edge and wrote about the possibility of testing or breaking below the 3/26 low if the pullback dips back into wave a.

The market did just that and now ES has that happening. We shall see if cash follows tomorrow.

The 60 min chart below shows some targets for wave c should it follow thru below the 3/26 low.  The 200 DMA is near 2012 currently so that may be the logical target.

Let us not forget about that large ED I have been tracking for some time now. That lower trendline is being tested.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Daily

ES

Testing the 3/26 low.

3/31/15 - AM Update

[6:16 AM Update] - Looks like wave iv in progress as suggested yesterday for ES. However, keep in mind the line in the sand (red horizontal) for the iv-i violation.

6:16 AM - ES - 60 Min 

3/30/15 - EOD Update

Wave c hit 62% retracement. Looks like there are five complete waves for wave c as well.

The bulls need to defend the wave 'a' high, which would represent wave i, and print five waves off the 3/26 low in order to form a larger degree five wave structure. So if the bull count is working, we should see a lil dip here coming to form what should be a wave iv.

But again, if it dips back into wave 'a' as labeled on the 5 min chart below, then chances are a test and/or break of the 3/26 low should be coming.

At this point, I give the bears a slight edge since I do not count a clean five wave structure off the 3/11 low thru the 3/23 high.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Based on the 60 min chart above

3/30/15 - AM Update

[7:04 AM] - There's that wave c bounce.

7:04 AM - 5 Min 

3/27/15 - AM Update

[7:05 AM Update] - Perhaps trade the breakout for wave c red.

7:05 AM - 5 Min 

[6:41 AM Update]The bears may have completed five waves down and working on a abc countertrend bounce. I have also added the nested 1-2 count I mentioned in the previous post. 

6:41 AM - 5 Min

3/25/15 - EOD Update

Wowie. There's some bear action there.

Looks like a very extended five wave action with the fifth wave being extended. The other bear option not highlighted there is a nested 1-2 down with today's decline part of wave 3.

5 Min 

60 Min 

 Da bears created the iv-i overlap so the bull count is out.

Daily

Still watching this wedge/ED. Price is back near the lower trendline. Wave C of (4) is certainly still an option among other bearish options.

3/25/15 - AM Update

TNX H/S?

TNX - Daily

3/24/15 - EOD Update

So far wave iv blue on track to 38% retracement. Looking to backtest the 20 DMA as well.

Da bears are trying to make something happen. They need to take out 2066.41 for starters.
Looks like five waves down so far (5 Min)

5 Min 

60 Min 

Daily

3/23/15 - EOD Update

So far looks like wave iv blue is in progress. And the bears are hoping for more so they would like to see a retrace back into the wave i high at 2066.41.

60 Min 

3/20/15 - EOD Update

The bulls came roaring back on Fed day keeping the ED count alive.

The bull count has wave (iii) of 5 towards the upper trendline (near 2150 currently). So far there are three waves of (iii). Wave iv of (iii) should be up next and must hold above 2066.31

The bear count is not out yet but certainly in danger. So far the bounce off the 3/12 low is three waves. The bear count is out above the 2119.59 high.

60 Min 

Daily

3/17/15 - EOD Update

Possibly one more leg down?

3/16/15 - EOD Update

Let's see what happens at the 20 DMA if it gets there.

The bull case is that wave (iii) of 5 of the ED has begun.

From the bear's perspective, this is just a countertrend bounce towards the 20 DMA and 62% retracement of the leg that started near the end of Feb.

We'll see...

60 Min 

20 DMA

Daily

3/12/15 - EOD Update

The bulls stepped in at the lower trendline of the ending diagonal. Is it possible that wave (iii) of 5 of the ED has begun?

Or is this only a bounce to backtest the 20 DMA before resuming lower?

Back-n-forth.

60 Min 

Daily

3/10/15 - EOD Update

Looks like the bears are trying to make their case for wave C of (4). So far they have brought the market back down to the lower yellow trendline (daily) of the ED I have been highlighting and closed below the 50 DMA. Daily -ve MACD divergence in play as well.

The bulls shouldn't be counted out yet though since this could still be counted as a wave b of (iii) for the larger yellow ED. If this is the case, so far wave b of (iii) is approaching a 62% retracement of wave a.

However, I'd give the edge to the bears. We'll see if the 200 DMA is revisited soon.

60 Min

Daily

3/7/15 -

The market continues to chop in three wave structures. The potential ED I have highlighted on the daily chart for some time now must be considered as the market continues to chop higher.

The wave C of (4) option is not out yet either.

So if you believe in the ED, the 60 min chart below shows a 38% retracement for a wave b of (iii) for the ED highlighted on the daily chart.

If you believe wave C of (4) is underway, than Fri's sell off is a wave 3 of C.

60 Min 

Daily

3/4/15 - EOD Update

So far the market has either retraced 38.2% of wave iii (yellow) for wave iv (yellow) or 23.6% of the five wave structure (blue).

60 Min 

Daily

The 20 DMA was tagged and bounced so we'll see if the bulls are staging another move for the upper trendline (See chart below). 

Something to keep in mind is the daily MACD cross and negative divergence. A larger pullback as a result of this would mean that wave C of (4) may be in progress. 

Daily

3/4/15 - AM Update

6:34 AM - We'll see if the blue waves are finally complete. The yellow option still in play until wave i blue is taken out.

6:34 AM - 60 Min