4/30/15 - EOD Update

[9:47 PM Update] - Is it possible the RUT has completed five wave move and ending diagonal?

RUT

[EOD Update] - Yesterday I tweeted the following:

i like the chances of another leg lower. at least a challenge of the lower TL

— Grand (@grand680) April 29, 2015

 So far so good. Now was today's move the beginning of a sell in May event or just a fake-out?

The market found support at the lower TL so TBD.

60 Min 

Daily

 Bollinger bands starting to compress and a triple -ve divergence. Possible double top? Hmm..

Daily

The daily chart shows how the 60 min triangle fits in to the bigger picture. It would conclude a wave C triangle in what would be a combo corrective (Green A-B-C).

4/29/15

No change from yesterday's post.

60 Min 

4/28/15 - AM Update

[7:14 AM] - Some adjustments to the bull count if the lower tri trendline holds. If it does not, a greater likelihood of a double top.

7:14 AM - 60 Min 

4/27/15 - EOD Update

Small breakout from the triangle and then a reversal at the close. Could this be a double top and the completion after the brief breakout?

Of course for the bulls this is just continuing to be a large ascending triangle. We'll see.

60 Min 

Daily

4/23/15 - AM Update

ZZZZZzzzzz

60 Min 

4/21/15 - EOD Update

Since the market refuses to go down, we must continue to respect the large triangle that is forming, even though I tweeted earlier this AM that I was suspicious of it.

I added another possible bullish count to the daily chart below. The count is in green and it represents a large combo corrective. The triangle in this count is represented by wave C.

The bearish counts I have are not out yet though so we'll just have to keep watching it.

60 Min 

Daily

4/20/15 - AM Update

[6:47 AM Update] - Will the bulls stage one last rally to new ATH? The blue and green counts certainly support that. Lets see if they can break thru the upper descending trendline (purple) first.

6:47 AM - 60 Min 

4/18/15 - Better to be lucky than good

As posted Thurs, I thought she was going down and also mentioned at least to the lower pink trendline.

So far looks like that occurred. So does that complete wave e of the larger triangle I have been posting? Or is wave c red in progress?

I guess we'll have to see if 208x holds, which is the 20 and 50 DMAs.

60 Min 

4/16/15 - EOD Update

I think she may be going down; at least towards the lower pink trendline at the least. We'll see.

60 Min 

4/15/15 - EOD Update

I adjusted the trendlines for the larger triangle. Wave d is still legit.

I also added the red rising wedge. It makes for a nice wave b red.

The nested 1-2 i-ii purple is still not out yet either. The red rising wedge also applies to wave ii purple.

60 Min 

4/13/15 - EOD Update

No change. Wave d (blue) may have completed today. All the other counts are still in play.

60 Min 

4/12/15

As posted last week, I suspected the bull/bear case was back to even. Unfortunately all counts are still in play until the upper and lower (2120 and 2040 respectively) resistance levels are broken.

As far as the larger triangle is concerned (blue count) that I introduced last week, it is quite possible last Fri's bump completed wave d.

But again, at the end of the day, just need to watch 2120 on the upper end or 2040 on the lower end.

60 Min 

4/9/15 - EOD Update

A few days ago I posted that all counts favor some type of pullback or sell off. After today, I think it is back to dead even. All the counts are still in play in addition to another bull count option.

The bulls turned MACD positive and closed above the 20 and 50 DMAs. The additional bull count highlights a potential combo corrective with wave c ending in a triangle (in green).

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

60 Min 

Daily

Daily

4/9/15 - AM Update

[4:10 AM Update] - Still focusing on this 60 min chart. In my previous post Weds, I mentioned that all counts favor some form of pullback or sell off. The caveat is how far determines which count is in play.

A quick dip this AM could just be the completion of wave e blue of the larger triangle. So bears positioned for something lower so be prepared.

4:10 AM - 60 Min 

4/7/15 - EOD Update

[5:25 PM Update] - I just realized my 60 min triangle was not aligned with my daily one. Here is an update on that count. Today may have marked the end of wave d of that tri.

So most of the counts have some form of pullback or sell off next in store so how far it drops will be telling.

60 Min 

If the bulls don't break out of this range soon, i.e. over 2120, that bearish nested 1-2 i-ii count may be the count to watch if not wave c red near 2020-2000.

60 Min 

4/6/15 - EOD Update

Not much to add here. I just made the following adjustments to the 60 min chart:

1.  The wave b triangle (pink) alternate I pointed out last week
2.  I added the nested 1-2 i-ii bearish count to the chart.
3. The larger triangle (blue) for wave b of (iii) for the daily chart.

60 Min 

Daily

4/2/15 - EOD Update

Looks to me like a series of three wave overlapping structures off the 3/26 low. If this is the case, the 60 min chart below shows an alternate count I have for wave b (pink). A possible triangle in the works.

The more extreme bearish view is the nested 1-2 (not shown on chart) down.

5 Min 

60 Min 

I haven't forgotten about the bulls tho. If this keeps chopping, a larger descending triangle may be playing out that forms wave b of (iii) of the large ED highlighted on the daily chart below.

Daily

4/2/15 - AM Update

[7:32 AM Update] - The count for wave iii red, though not technically out, does not really have the right look. The blue count as posted yesterday has wave -iii launched today. Will have to take a look later for the bigger picture how this all mashes up.

7:32 AM - 5 Min 

4/1/15 - AM Update

[9:32 AM Update] - So far looks like five up and three down for the bounce off the AM low.

9:32 AM - 5 Min 

[7:18 AM Update] - We'll see if da bears can complete wave iii. It appears to be working on wave -iv right now.

7:18 AM - 5 Min 

[6:56 AM Update] - So far following the bear game plan as anticipated.

6:56 AM- 5 Min - 

6:56 AM - 60 Min