11/28/15

We'll see if the market breaks thru the yellow neckline next week.

15 Min 

11/25/15 - AM Update

11:34 AM - Looks like consolidating in a tri. The yellow inv H/S targets 2120ish.

11:34 AM - 15 Min 

7:15 AM - With today's little dip, the right shoulder may have formed on the inv H/S (yellow) I mentioned yesterday.

7:15 AM - 15 Min

11/24/15 - EOD Update

I went long today and hope the H/S plays out. Was looking for the dip to 38% retrace so we'll see if this is the case.

The bears lost their impulse when the bulls tore thru the red horizontal line. The bears' next best count would be a double zig zag should a lower low occur.

I didn't highlight it on the chart below but a smaller inv H/S could be forming that would target approx 2120.

15 Min 

11/24/15 - AM Update

8:20 AM - Bears need to defend the red horizontal. That marks the end of what would be wave 1 albeit a corrective wave 1, which I believe is corrective, hence the long position.

8:20 AM - 15 Min

7:14 AM - The market had a lil more to go after breaking out of the lil triangle and completed all five waves at 2097. We'll see if 38% is the target for retrace.

7:14 AM - 15 Min

11/19/15 - AM Update

7:35 AM - Possible five waves complete for the bulls at 2085. This may have set the neckline of a larger inv H/S that targets 2150.

Small short in play for a Fib pullback and will then look to go long. Short stop above 2085.

7:35 AM - 15 Min

11/18/15 - EOD Update

The bear count posted is now out (see new alternate below). The market broke out of the expanding diagonal. The orange H/S is now more unlikely too.

The bias would be to look for the market to challenge the 2116 high first. From there, we can potentially look at the new bearish option of a much larger expanding diagonal triangle. (in red)

15 Min 

If the bulls have their way, they are in the midst of launching higher in a wave iii or c per the 60 min chart.

60 Min 

If the bulls succeed in taking out 2135, then it just means that wave 5? green was not complete yet per the daily chart.

Daily

So first things first. Lets see what happens at 2116.

11/17/15 - EOD Update

This is gonna get interesting. Earlier today, the bull count was looking for a wave -iv (green) pullback. A pullback occurred and so far that has hit 50%. A lil steeper than I would like for a wave -iv but until it violates wave -i, its still in play. A potential inv H/S for the bulls too.

For the bears, they continue to track lower highs within an expanding diagonal pattern. They also put in their wave iv (red) but that is pretty steep too.

Earlier I tweeted the

Looking for a potential falling wedge down here. May be an ending diag for wave c of -iv on my 15min chart

— Grand (@grand680) November 17, 2015

The market broke out of the diagonal but again there are two scenarios for this. We will have to see over the next day or two, which count wins.

15 Min 

I added a third potential H/S pattern (orange). So far the first two have played out.

60 Min 

Something to consider that would favor this third H/S is the almost shooting star daily candlestick that was rejected on a backtest of the 200 day SMA.

Daily

11/17/15 - AM Update

7:05 AM - If wave iii for the bulls is complete, wave iv may target 2043. As posted yesterday, the bears need to defend 2068.24.

7:05 AM - 15 Min 

11/16/15 - EOD Update

The bulls staged their bounce at Fib and price support. The bears have to defend the 2068.24 level if they want to build a larger impulse wave down.

If today was a wave iv bounce, it has already hit 50% retracement of wave iii, which is a tad steep.

The bulls have three waves up off the bounce so they need to defend 2033.84, today's 6:40 AM (PST) high.

15 Min 

60 Min

11/13/15 - EOD Update

The 2nd H/S target has been met. The market is hovering just above the 50 day SMA and took a break at the 2020 level.  It has also hit 38% retracement. We'll see if it finds support here.

Earlier I pointed out the potential for the leading diagonal count. IF this is correct, the wave structure off the 2116 high has played out in three waves so far. Should a bounce come, the bears need to defend the wave i/a low at 2068.24 if they want to build five waves down.

From a bullish perspective, a three wave pullback to support and Fib support may set up a bounce from here. We shall see next week.

15 Min 

60 Min 

Daily

11/13/15 - AM Update

[7:31AM] - Like I posted last night, got out of the shorts just a tad early. Been dismissing the leg off  the 2116.48 top as a corrective mess.

Upon further examination this AM I like it as a leading diagonal representing either wave i or a. Working on wave iii or c now with Fib projections and an H/S target.

We'll see...

7:31 AM - 15 Min 

11/12/15 - EOD Update

So far the H/S pattern(s) has not disappointed. The market has met the blue target and working potentially on the purple target at 2020. I covered my shorts today, possibly a lil too early, since the 200 day SMA did not hold.

The market may be heading for the 50 day SMA, which is currently at 2000. I took a little long position today but not sure I'm gonna hold it. We'll see what the action is like tomorrow.

60 Min

11/12/15 - AM Update

[7:10 AM] - Gap down thru the purple neckline and sitting right at the 200 day SMA. So far at 23.6% retracement.

Will be keeping an eye out for a daily hammer candlestick down here if the bulls stage a comeback. If so will begin to cover the short taken on 11/4. 

7:10 AM - 60 Min 

11/11/15 - EOD Update

Thank you to our Veterans. Happy Veterans Day.

Looks like a break thru on the bear pennant. I have the purple neckline near 2070.

The market is overing just over the 20 day SMA and the 200 day SMA is at 2060. We'll see if 2060 will be visited soon with a break.

60 Min 

11/10/15 - EOD Update

A larger H/S? The target makes for a nice 38.2% retracement down to 2020. We'll see.

60 Min 

11/9/15 - EOD Update

So far that larger H/S is playing out. Near the end of the day we saw a bounce back towards the neckline so we'll see what she does there.

Earlier this AM I mentioned that the H/S target is near 2040. I forgot to mention that the 20 day SMA is about to cross thru the 200 day SMA, which is currently at 2060ish.

Today's intraday low was 2068 so quite possible the market could find support here or consolidate around this area.

60 Min

Looking at the daily below we must consider the MACD bear cross and the wave (x) option backtesting the underside of the longer term channel. We shall see.

Daily

11/9/15 - AM Update

[7:00 AM] - Forgot to add that price is also at the lower end of the ascending channel (red) now as well. Keep an eye on this as well. The other fact is that the entire structure so far off the 11/3/15 high is one big overlapping corrective mess.


[6:52 AM] - As anticipated last week, 2080 was a logical spot to bounce, which is what occurred. However, I was eyeing a larger potential H/S so lets see if that is what is playing out.

So far price is still respecting the descending channel (yellow). The larger H/S target is approx 2040. The neckline is at 2080ish. We'll see.

6:52 AM - 60 Min

11/6/15 - AM Update

[7:23 AM] - H/S playing out. So far so good. Lets see if it can break 2080, this would be a logical spot for a bounce to create a larger neckline for a larger potential H/S. It certainly doesn't have to stop there though so lets keep an eye on it.

7:23 AM - 60 Min 

11/5/15 - AM Update

[7:11 AM] - The H/S is still intact. We'll see. Revisiting the lower end of the channel would make sense. 

7:11 AM - 60 Min 

11/4/15 - AM Update

[6:50 AM] - I don't normally chase this much but I'm gonna take another short position here. -Divergence and the larger wedge may be complete. We'll see.

60 Min Closeup

60 Min 

11/2/15 - AM Update

[6:47 AM] - Have to adjust the wave {ii label. Possible H/S in the works here too. 

6:47 AM - 1 Min