Good riddance 2020.
Not much to add since my last post. I had a wave 3 in the works and so far that still seems to be playing out. My degrees may be off a bit but too lazy to relabel it. I think wave 1 of (3) is playing out here. So only three waves for 1 of (3) at this point. We'll see, it appears really bullish but that is the count at the moment.
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| SPX Daily |
And a look at the long term monthly chart to cap the year end.
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| SPX Monthly |
Hope everyone has a safe and Happy New Year!
Been a little side tracked. Not too much to add other than a little clean up on the counts. Since my post on 10/12/2020, I laid out two options and I wrote:
Either:
1. Wave 1 of (3) of five will complete all five subwaves i-ii-iii-iv-v
2. wave b of (2) as a flat is near completion and will either reverse near the all-time high here. Keep in mind, there are only three waves up off the September low so far so very much still in play.Since then a nearly 300 point decline has occurred and with that decline, the 1st option was taken off the table. Option 2 took the pole position so now we'll have to see what type of flat plays out or potentially some type of combo corrective to complete wave (2) of [5].
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| SPX - 60 Min |
Wave iv or -iv is tracing out. Would be a little quick if it is considered complete so will keep an eye out for some sideways chop here.
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| 15 Min |
Wave iii kept extending. Very possible it completed on today's high with wave iv beginning with the pullback today. The alternate is that wave -iii is not quite complete yet.
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| 15 Min |
Getting close to the all time high. So we now have to keep an eye out for the two best options.
Either:
1. Wave 1 of (3) of five will complete all five subwaves i-ii-iii-iv-v
2. wave b of (2) as a flat is near completion and will either reverse near the all-time high here. Keep in mind, there are only three waves up off the September low so far so very much still in play.
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| 60 Min |
Not much to add. The primary count, as posted the other day, is still intact. A wave iii was expected for the primary and so far it appears to be playing out, albeit in a wedgie looking pattern. The alternate posted the day is now invalidated.
The new alternate option is a potential leading diagonal wave, which would accommodate the wedgie look, may be in play as highlighted by the orange count below on the 15 min chart. If this is a leading diagonal, wave v cannot exceed 3462.73, otherwise it will be longer than wave iii, which would be a rule violation.
The inverted head and shoulders pattern continues to play out. I now have two areas for the neckline. They essentially imply the general target area near 3600.
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Obviously the president's COVID-19 infection spooked the market. SMH at the hypocrisy and lack of transparency playing out.
Not too much change to the count options recently presented. The triangle I was tracking has failed, however there is still room for a larger triangle.
At the moment here are the counts:
Primary: Wave ii completed with a wave iii higher in store. This is invalidated with the break of 3323.69
Alternate: Wave ii is forming a larger flat with wave c of ii to come below. Wave c of ii = wave a of ii at approximately 3290. This option continues to build on the inverted head and shoulders pattern and would result in a more symmetric right shoulder.
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Looks like the market is triangulating up top here. So either my wave ii is playing out some sideways combo corrective or this is some type of wave 4 that I am missing. Either way, this is implying a possible move higher.
Daily MACD buy signal triggered today.
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| 15 Min |
Bigger picture all this could be setting up a larger wave (2) flat. We'll know more if 3588 caps the move and the wave structure looks like a three wave affair.
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| 60 Min |
The subwaves counted well today. Since my AM update, looks like we have now completed five waves up off what I have as wave (2).
The market rallied hard to clear the 20 and 50 day on closed over it by a smidgen. Is the market setting up a small wave ii pullback to suck in some bears shorting at the 50 day only to rally higher in a wave iii of 1 of (3) higher on the primary count?
A potential inverted head and shoulders pattern and by the looks of the daily MACD, this could be in the works.
So for now my primary view is that the market continues to march higher. May need a little more for wave ii down to a 38% retracement, maybe not. We'll see.
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| Daily |
The market is confirming my wave iv for yesterday's post. So far looks like wave -iii of v playing out.
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| 15 Min |
In my previous post, I considered the w-x-y pattern complete with the market setting up a nested 1-2 i-ii pattern coming out of a falling wedge. So far this has been confirmed with the rally out of the wedge. I have four waves so far. Should get five up if the overnight action stays green.
I had been looking for a bounce back to the 50 day and today's action closed just below. Let's see if the market makes a quick poke above it again to complete five waves of a new leg for (3) of [5] or just the beginning of wave b of (2) [see 60 min below for that alternative].
We shall see.
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Long term chart below.
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From a primary count standpoint, my corrective W-X-Y pattern completed with today's opening low. However, my red Alt count is still in play because the bounce off the AM low only looks like a three wave bounce, which would align with a wave b of Y (red) bounce for the alternate.
That wedgie pattern remains and if the primary count is to remain in the pole position, this would imply that the bounce off the AM low was a nested 1-2, i-ii wave and a iii of 3 wave rally is in store at the open tomorrow. Otherwise, for the red Alt count we should expect an opening sell off that has wave c of Y = wave a near 3160
We shall see.
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| SPX - 15 Min |
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| SPX - 60 Min |
Looks like we finally have our wave c down of y and as I was suspecting 3232 was tagged. Buyers came in formed a hammer so we'll see if wave c of y is complete or near completion.
I eliminated the Alt 2 count and left the Alt 1 (red). The primary count has wave c of y nearing completion with wave (v) of c of y to come. If the market rallies higher tomorrow, wave (iv) cannot cross through wave (i) at 3330.39. Doing so would confirm that wave c of y completed.
If Alt 1 is still playing out, then more selling should be expected since that would imply a wave b bounce followed by a wave c down to complete the alternate wave y.
There is a falling wedge look to this on the daily and hourly so maybe a short term bounce is in store to challenge the 50 day moving average. From there we will have to see the reaction.
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| SPX - 5 min |
Cleaned up the micro count a tad and adjusted the options to either Atl1 red or Alt 2 blue triangle.
Note there is room for red X having completed or a wave e of X bounce is in store tomorrow, which aligns with a wave d of Y bounce for Alt 2.
Alt1 implies more selling to come once one last attempt to bounce fails or if X is complete it flushes out tomorrow w/o any meaningful bounce.
Alt2 implies that the bulls are satisfied with the recent pullback and setting up for the next leg higher.
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| 60 Min |
As suspected that wedgie look resulted in some bullish behavior out of the gate yesterday. So wave b of Y retraced much higher for the primary count.
On the 1 min below, I have introduced two other potential options.
Alt1: Wave X has not completed and may be forming some type of triangle before wave Y pulls further back. This is the red count on the 1min below.
Alt2: This favors the bulls. Wave Y takes on a triangle of it's own projected with the orange dotted lines.
We will see
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| SPX - 1Min |
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| SPX - 60 Min |
Man, pretty amazing when the squiggles play out as anticipated and especially when it does so in a fashion I was expecting. I kid you not, I did not move the dotted lines but the market traced out my wave (iv) almost to a tee, followed by wave (v) of a of y.
After completing wave a of y, it looks like wave b of y attempted to retrace wave a by 38%. In my AM post, I placed b at 62% but it can end anywhere so I added the b? indicating that b ended near the close?
One thing to note is the falling wedgie look this corrective wave has to it off the 3155 high so maybe some bulls step in early next week.
Since my last post, I wanted to wait for the market to signal the possible end to the count I have been tracking. I think the market finally completed the five waves up out of my triangle wave 4.
The question is now what do these five waves off the March 2020 low represent in the bigger scheme of things. I'll try to post an update to my long term chart over the weekend if I have time.
For now, the pullback looks corrective to me and it has been a while since I have taken the time to count the squiggles. On a 1min interval, this all looks corrective to me.
Best corrective count is a double zig-zag. So far waves w and x have played out and now it is working on wave a of y. My dotted lines on the 1min below is just a guess as to the expected path for y if it takes on another zig-zag pattern. However, the corrective pattern does not have to form another zig-zag. Maybe it turns into a triangle or just a bigger mess of corrective waves too hard to count before completing it's correction. We will just have to see.
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| SPX - 1 Min |
On the 60 min below, iF wave y = w it will land somewhere near approximately 3188. It doesn't have to but just an area to keep an eye on IF it does.
A more bearish view would call for a series of nested 1-2 i-ii waves down. I don't necessarily see it as a top alternate at the moment but mentally prepare oneself should we see a bigger flush beyond wave y=w.
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| SPX - 60 Min |
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| SPX- Daily |
Been a while but looks like wave 5 wanted to continue running and take out the all time high. It was easier just to watch this than to try to figure out the end of wave 5 of this five wave move off the March 2020 low.
The only projection I'll put out there if this decides to run higher is, what level wave 5, as labeled here will equal wave 3. This projects to 3693.xx.
Per EW rule, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Given that wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 therefore cannot be longer than wave 3.
Are there enough sub-waves in place to consider wave 5 complete? Indeed. Will I try to count it? Sorry. No. Too tired and will just let the market signal the end, otherwise, I'll keep an eye on that 3693 level.
If wave 5 continues to climb and does not end there, a more bullish option may be playing out. I won't present that yet until a break above 3794 is cleared.
GL
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