9/11/2024 - EOD Update

We must Never Forget the lives we have lost in NY, Pentagon, and Flight 93 in PA. 

Apologies for not providing recent updates. I have cleaned up the chart to highlight the best count at the moment. The previous bull counts were invalidated. 

I think this is a decent interpretation if the move off the July high has been one large corrective consolidation pattern. Wave (C) ends as an expanding diagonal. If the sub-wave count is correct, wave (5) for (C) should be expected. 

The next best alternate is a triangle consolidation pattern. I don't have the trendlines drawn in but I think you can figure this out using the rising green trendline as the bottom of the triangle. 

I do see another possible count for wave (C) that would be more bearish. This count has this expanding diagonal only as wave 1 of (C), with a larger five wave impulse down breaking below wave (A). I won't go there yet unless the wave (A) low is taken out. Just putting that on the radar in the event the market flushes after the Fed pivots. 

8/21/2024 EOD Update

Just returned from holiday. 

Since my last post, I mentioned that the alternate count gained strength and in fact to the point where I have removed the blue primary. The red count is now the primary. 

At this point, we shall see if NQ challenges the July 2024 high. 

8/8/2024 - EOD Update

 After dropping as expected yesterday, the market staged a bounce that provided additional strength to the red Alt count. 

Primary is that wave 2 of (3) is complete or near completion. If wave 2 intends to retrace wave 1 by 62%, it would target 18,800. 

Alternate is wave 3 Alt aiming for the 19,000 level where it would equal wave 1 Alt. 

8/6/2024 - EOD Update NQ

 NQ continued to bounce higher and reversed just shy of the 50% retracement. The reversal on the 5min looks pretty impulsive. 

So lets go with wave 2 of (3) done. One thing I don't note on the chart, which I realized today, is that wave (3) can also be considered complete where I have it labeled as (3)=(1) at the 17351 low. The subsequent bounce from there would be considered wave (4). 

At this point its all the same as far as expected next direction and that should be down if we consider wave 2 of (3) or (4) complete. The next leg down should challenge the 17351 low and break through. 

If the next leg is wave 3 of (3) down, 3 = 1 @ 16117. 

The red Alt count is still in play. In order for this count to remain valid, it cannot break below 17351 and needs to run past today's high to signal wave 3 Alt red up. 

8/5/2024 - EOD Update NQ

The NQ made quick work of blasting through 18305 and continued to drop nearly 1000 handles lower. 

Once the market bounced at 17361, I have label that as the completion of wave 1 of (3). The caveat is I did not count the squiggles but it looks like a decent impulse wave. 

The bounce should be considered a wave 2 of (3) and is now back testing the 18305 area. Note a 50% retracement would equal 19528. 

This is the most bearish count and considered the primary. 

However, I would like to make note of the alternate count, which honestly could be considered the primary as well. This count though has a long road ahead in order to be proven correct. 

8/2/2024 - NQ Update

I didn't count the squiggles for wave 1 of (3), but clearly it wasn't done working it's way down yet along with the alternate bearish count. I made a slight adjustment to the WXY alternate count. Zoomed in there is a triangle that formed all day, that may be indicative of a wave 4 to complete wave 1 of (2) or wave c of (Y).

Zoomed in view of the triangle. So let's see what the market brings next week/overnight Sunday. Will there be a flush to 18300s to complete the head and shoulders pattern near a fairly strong support level?

8/1/2024 - NQ Update

 Been a while since I posted counts. I wanted to share the count for the Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQ) because it looks pretty bearish. 

The counts, primary and alternate, look bearish. Wave 1 of (3) could be complete near the 18950 support area. If so, a wave 2 of (3) bounce may target 19275-19280, which is a 50% retracement. 

/NQ (Nasdaq futures)

The QQQ counts the same. 

QQQ