1/27 - SPX AM Update [10:40 AM Update 5th of 5th Extension]

[10:40 AM Update 5th of 5th Extension]

Wave c of ii is in progress. 1093 looks like a potential top for this retrace. It is a 38.2% retracement of the leg down that ended at today's bottom and c of ii = a of ii here as well.


[10:15 AM Update 5th of 5th Extension]

Looks like c of ii is in progress. 1093 is looking like the target zone!
[9:20 AM Oops! My bad!]


[9:00 AM Update 5th of 5th Extension]




Let's see if the bulls can break her above 1096. If not, this count may just work.

[8:30 AM Update 5th of 5th Extension]
Here's that 5th off 5th extension I mentioned below. I know it's a really bearish count and the probability is low, but it is something to keep in mind.

[7:50 AM Update]
Here's and update of my overall count for now with the alternates.

Check back in a little bit because I'm going to post a potential count in the event that there is a 5th wave extension of a 5th wave extension. Somehow, I think this may be a possibility however remote because the 1072 gap just seems to stick out.







This is how I'm counting this move so far. By my primary count, minuette (iii) is wrapping up. I'm expecting a push up/sideways for (iv) and probably no more than 1104.

1/26 - E-Mini PM Update: H&S?

It appears a small scale head and shoulders formation may in the works. How it fits into the wave count I'm not completely sure. Based on my current count, it may result in a drop down for wave (v).

I'm not quite sure this one is completely valid. The measured move would take price down to 1070, a 1.5% move. That's pretty big. It would make wave (v) approx 1.236(i).

Let's see how it plays out. Many of the H&S patterns have been playing out so this one may not be any different.

And of the course the alternate count is that minute [i] was put in today and the bounce the beginning of [ii]. By my count (a) played out and (b) is just about to complete with a final (c) wave up to complete [ii].

1/26/10 - SPX EOD UPDATE

There was a lot of commentary in the Circle Community Lounge today (See link above to participate). I was able to participate sporadically. One thing I commented on was how much I did not like the channeling of the structure starting from the 1147 high on 1/19.

The structure I'm referring to was the alternate count I had listed last night. I felt waves 2 and 4 (minuette) did not create a good channel and just did not look right proportionately.

The bounce off the bottom this morning was not convincing. It appeared to be weak and could not get above 1104. The structure appeared to be forming an expanding triangle and if anything moved sideways taking on a bearish flag pattern.

There is still a way to count this alternate, however, I still like the nested 1-2 count. Support is strong at the 1090 area, which in the case of the alternate count, may be where minute [i] ends.

For now, my preferred count is that we are in wave v of minuette (iii) with a target near 1090-1085. I would expect a bounce to complete minuette (iv) and then a final minuette (v) back down towards strong support or possibly challenge the 1072 gap below. So a bottom for minute [i], though somewhat wide, is between 1085-1072.

Something to keep in mind is the possible bear flag pattern, which is considered a continuation pattern. This pattern suggests, if correct, a more bearish move to 1050. Not sure about this, but something to keep in mind.

1/25/10 - SPX AM UPDATE [3:40 PM UPDATE]

[3:40 PM UPDATE]

Here's an alternate count addressing the 7 waves I posted about the other night. This count would get us 9 waves to complete this impulse down and wave 5 would be considered extended.

There is no rule violation here either with regards to wave 3 since it is still longer than wave 1. I have highlighted all 9 waves in green. There are some Fibonacci confluences here to.

Wave (v) blue equals wave (i) blue x 1.618 near 1088 and wave v red equals wave i red at 1085. This area is considered a strong support area (though the DOW has broken down through it).

If this alternate count pans out, we should expect minute [i] to end somewhere near 1085-1090.

I still like the nested 1-2 count and it is my preferred but I will say this alternate is very close as well. If price smashes through 1085 convincingly, then I think I can say my preferred count is certainly playing out.

[EOD UPDATE]






Since 1104.89 was not taken out, the nested 1-2s (3 total) are still in play.
It looks like wave iv (red) of the 3rd set of 1-2s completed today.

The move up from Friday's 1090.18 low counts well as an a-b-c corrective. Many overlapping waves and a wave 'b' triangle to boot. The final wave C, which I was speculating on the CiL to be an ED turned out to just count as a 5 wave impulse up. The waves channeled well, with a 5th wave throw-over to boot.

I labeled what appeared to be a new impulse heading back down. Granted it may also count as only 3 waves down so far. A break of 1095.74 to the downside will truly confirm that this corrective move up is over.

One thing I noticed today is how long the waves took to build up, only to lose half of it's progress within the last 10-15 mins of the day. To me that signals weak momentum to the upside.

[10:40 AM UPDATE]
And the alternate count.

[10:30 AM UPDATE]
Looks like that ED only completed wave iii. The next best count I have here is that wave 5 completed, backtested the rising trendline for wave 3's ED and was rejected. Breaking 1095.74 will confirm this corrective wave up is over.

[10:00 AM UPDATE]

I'm thinking wave 5 of C is ending in an Ending Diagonal.




Following up on Friday's post, I'm showing a wave iv corrective off Friday's bottom. This would be wave iv (red) of what I believe to be either micro or submicro degree. It is part of the 3rd nested 1-2 count.

Wave c of iv was about to begin and using Fib relationships, c=a=1105ish and c=.618a=1100ish.

It cannot exceed 1104.89 or there will be a 4-1 overlap on the third nested 1-2. Will see.