1/28 - SPX NEW COUNT

SPX Line Chart-Primary Count


SPX Bar Chart-Primary Count


Third Wave Extension of Third Wave Extension Count
Courtesy Elliott Wave International


Fifth Wave Ending Diagonal-Alternate Count

Alrighty. I had a chance to look at the charts again tonight.

First off, I have to thank Geno0010 from the Circle Community Lounge. He pointed out the truncated (5) wave in red on my first line chart I posted this morning. I didn't get a chance to follow up on it until tonight and realize that this current count works very well.

See my post from earlier this morning.

The line chart provides a little clarity and presents a good looking wave structure. The labels on the line chart work well with the bar chart as well.

Based on this count, there was a third wave of a third wave extension. I have posted a chart from Elliott Wave International as an example. Compare the two and it looks pretty good to me.

So if this is correct, there may/should not be any other extended wave in this structure. Wave (v) should just equal (i). On the chart, I projected the distance of wave (v) using the length of wave (i) and came up with 1070.

I think this is a very likely level since I have been commenting all along that price will try to fill the 1072 gap below. 1070 would be a perfect level to test the gap and most likely end minute [i].

My alternate count remains the same and the expected level is approximately the same.

Tomorrow will be an exciting day. As I complete this post now, E-minis have given up another 6-7 points so far. We'll see how she fares in the AM.

Good night!

1/28 - EOD UPDATE

PRIMARY COUNT

ALTERNATE COUNT: ENDING DIAGONAL
Well, here we are, still trying to find the bottom. I hope the line chart I presented this morning was helpful.

There were a few options I presented throughout the day in the Circle Community Lounge. In the end I had to make some changes to my labels and for now will present the two best counts as far as I can tell.

There is one 3rd option, an uber bearish one, and Columbia1 has this one laid out. It is very similar to my previous uber bearish 5th of a 5th wave extension but my labels were slightly off. See Coumbia's count here.

The two options I have on the table are ranked as follows:

Option 1: The first chart. It should be self-explanatory. It has been my primary count now since this drop started. The only thing that gives me pause is how to count the squiggles in the blue box. I think I have it right but I have also seen other options that may also be right.

I am expecting five waves down to complete minute [i]. Two of those waves may have already completed. We may see the open with a drop tomorrow since it will have to be a third wave down.

Option 2: This option, though it is an alternate, I like quite a bit. There is a slight possibility the subwaves do not count out well as 3-wave structures as they should for an ending diagonal. But so far, it "looks" pretty and counts fairly well. I also have it finishing up wave five.

The difference with this wave 5 down is that it will look like a zigzag or 3 waves. This last wave should not exceed 1072 +/- 1 since wave v cannot be longer than wave iii. I have the distance of iii marked on the chart.

So, for now, it is pretty easy. Looking for 5 waves down total tomorrow. If it looks like only 3 waves are playing out, I will refer to the Ending Diagonal chart.

And last but not least, I'll be keeping an eye to see if this last fifth wave begins to extend. It certainly is an option. I forgot to mention that if it does, the flag formation indicates a move to 1050, which I believe an extended 5th of a 5th can take price to.

Unless I can think of anything else, this is it for now and maybe you can join me in the Circle Community Lounge tomorrow for some real-time wave counting.

1/28 - SPX Line Chart [12:20 PM Update]

[12:20 PM Update]

This is another option I have on the table. A possible final 5th wave Ending Diagonal to complete the extended 5th wave. The projected target for the last v of (v) would end near 1072.

My alternate count #2 option is off the table for now, at least by the way I have counted it. Columbia1 has a count similar to mine that would still work for the 5th of 5th.

[9:25 AM Update]



Here's a squiggle count of the 5th of 5th extension count. I show wave iii extending.
[9:00 AM Update]My Primary Count

Alternate Count #2

So far the primary count looks good. I have (v) in the works. However, My alternate count #2 is looking pretty strong and may have to become alternate #1 or my primary altogether. Wave 3 of the alt2 count looks like it may be extending.



,7/28/09 Before Line

7/28/09 After Line

7/28/09 After Bar

This is a line chart of my primary count. I think using this method helps smooth out the wild fluctuations that may distort the waves. I believe Prechter would agree because in Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), Pg.70, Prechter states that RN Elliott and A. Hamilton Bolton all kept an "hourly close" chart, one showing the end-of-hour prices. Unless I am missing something, I believe this is the same as using a line chart. Prechter and A.J. Frost utilized this as well.

In the case of my primary count above, the line chart shows a pretty clear structure. The nested 1-2s are quite obvious here.

I have an example where I used the line chart on July 28, 2009. See Post I used the same charting method to determine whether we were in a triangle.

At the time, I think there were many interpretations because the squiggles were everywhere. In fact, the comment posted by bruiser at the time shows the various views points and uncertainties.

The line chart presented a clear picture of 3-wave (a-b-c) structures indicative of a triangle. The one mistake I noticed I made back in July was how I projected the thrust. I was off a little, but notice, had I measured correctly, how fairly accurate that thrust was?

Does all this mean anything? Who knows but I will say its just something else to think about and add to the analysis. July seemed to work out pretty well or I'll just say it was a lucky call.

1/27 - EOD Update [9:55 PM Update]

[9:55 PM Update]
One more update. This is a correction of my alternate count2. For some reason, I labeled my wave c of ii as and abc, whereas a clear 5 wave impulse up may be counted. It cannot be seen on the 5 min, but the 1 min shows an open gap below at 1095.60. I believe wave iv of c will most likely retrace to this level.

I have taken the measurement of wave i and projected from this gap what I feel may be wave v of c of ii. A .618 relationship to i places price near 1103. This will have to be just about it if this count is to work.

The key tomorrow will be to see how far this move up retraces once it completes. Obviously a break of the start of b (blue) at 1083.11 will confirm that ii is complete. A break above 1103.68 confirms minute [i] is in and [ii] is in progress.

[9:05 PM Update]


I had to make a correction in one spot (for now). I moved my minuette (iii) and Alt:[i] label to the 1085.32 low on 1/27.

Primary count with Alternate 1

Extended 5th of 5th Count: Uber Bearish Count

Extended 5th of 5th Count: Uber Bearish Count Closeup



Ok. My primary count is above. Minuette (iv) is in play and will most likely get stopped at the trendline. Minuette (v) to follow near the target zone.

I have two alternates I am watching that I feel may go either way.

The first is listed on the top chart. That would make minute [i] complete today at 1083.11. Minute [ii] is working it's way up now. Target near 1114.

The second alternate (second chart) I have, I posted on throughout the morning in the Circle Community Lounge.

****Note**** I have to apologize in my earlier charts, I had the wrong trendline drawn in for this uber bear count. I have since made the adjustment and it is nice that price ended the day right at the top. Sh!t happens when your trying to look at all the possible counts. Nothing has changed by this oversight, in fact it helps confirm that the count is still in play.

So the 1st alternate count has us in minute [ii] but my primary and alternate 2, though counted differently, takes us to the same level (1072ish) for the most part.