2/20/10 - SPX 1121 Anyone? [1:00 PM PST Update]

[1:00 PM PST Update]

I added two long term trendlines (green and red). I think the green one is another target if we did not complete on [ii] on Friday. There is a range between 1117 - 1120 between the green trendline and the red ascending trendline.

1121 makes for a nice 50% retracement from the Oct 2007 high thru Mar 2009 low.





A Chart For Da Bulls

What do you think? Close enough?

If she has enough juice left to push higher, this may be a strong stopping point. However, the last chart is something to keep in mind if the bulls have something else up their sleeve.

Until then, this is my count. And regarding that Leading Expanding diagonal, Columbia1 of EW Trends and Charts kindly pointed out that wave 5 must be longer than wave 3. In this case it is not so it is most likely not a LED. However, the structure counts well as a 5 wave impulse down so it still qualifies as a potential wave 1 or it could just be wave a of another a-b-c correction.

2/19/10 - EOD Update [10:40 PM PST Update]

[10:40 PM PST Update]

This FreeStockCharts tool is pretty sweet! Was playing around with it tonight and decided to chart the move off today's top.

I'm really thinking this is a pretty good Leading Expanding Diagonal. Read below for what the implications are for this pattern.

But even if this is true, I'm not sure how significant it is considering the degree (low) of the wave. If it were a larger wave, I would take that as very bearish.

Looking forward to what next week has in store for us.



Leading Expanding Diagonal?



Are we there yet? Apparently not or maybe.

I made some adjustments to the wave labels and to be honest, waves iii and iv black are sort of eye-balled. I am going to label today's high at 1112.42 as the minute [ii] top for now and let Mr. Market prove to me otherwise come Monday.

One interesting wave structure to note is the one off the top. I think it may qualify as a Leading Expanding Diagonal.

Per EWP (Pg 40), "This form appears to occur primarily at the start of declines in the stock market."

"A leading diagonal in the wave one position is typically followed by a deep retracement".

So on the second chart, price quickly retraced almost 78.6%. I do show that wave ii after the LED may have only completed wave a and b before a final c up to complete.

The alternate to this of course is that it is just another expanding triangle of another wave iv.

The last chart is an update of the Fib confluence. It appears all other trendlines and fans are still being respected except for the arc.

I'll post more over the weekend. Have a good one.

2/19/10 - AM Update : E-mini

CPI and Core CPI numbers are better than expected. Futures are responding accordingly.

So far, a pretty good EW structure. The big question is it the beginning of [iii] down or yet another correction lower.

Stay tuned...

2/18/10 - SPX EOD Update [10:00 PM PST Update]

[10:00 PM PST Update]



Just some cool charts to highlight some Fibonacci tools and a confluence at 61.8.

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[9:30 PM PST Update]Primary Count

I just wanted to re-post this chart at the top here. I mentioned the other night that price was heading back to re-test the long term bear trendline.

Upon further review of my chart, I notice my trendline was off just a tad bit. I made the correct adjustments and low and behold, price kissed it today along with other significant levels.

So I post the following reasons for a minute [ii] top below:


1. THE WAVE COUNTS LOOK COMPLETE

2. FIB RATIO OF v=.618i

3. WAVE y HIT THE TOP OF THE EW CHANNEL AS PROJECTED FROM THE w-x LINE

4. PRICE KISSES AND IS RESISTED BY THE LONG TERM BEAR TRENDLINE

5. FUTURES INDICATING A LARGE DROP AT THE OPEN IF IT HOLDS OVERNIGHT

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[8:45 PM PST Update]

Here's a more bearish view on the e-mini.

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[7:45 PM PST Update]
E-mini is down 12 pts and change now. Looks like a possible wave 5 Ending Diagonal for this first impulse down.

Apparently Asia is red all over. HK is down over 400 pts (2.25%) and Japan is down 1%.



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[3:30 PM PST]SPX 1 Min

E-Mini
E-mini is sporting a very nice looking impulsive wave down. This was a result of the surprise move by the Feds to raise the discount rate by .25% to .75%.

Looks like the first chart below is going to be the count to go with for now. I know it's long time between now and tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure this is going to hold.

If so, it should open with a iii (black) down. Refer to the 1 Min SPX chart above.

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Still looking for a wave 5 Ending Diagonal. I think that would be fitting for this counter trend rally.

Above are the two counts I'm looking at right now. I'll take a closer look later and make the usual updates.

Gotta run for now.