2/25/10 - EOD Update

Preferred Count


Alternate Count

What a reversal today. It sell off started off on a very bearish note but the bulls were able to pared down the losses.

Not much has really changed in terms of my preferred and alternate counts.

Just a few comments on my preferred count:

1. Until 1106.42 is taken out, the 1-2 1-2 count is in play.

2. Dan and Kenny pointed out the Leading Expanding Diagonal (LED) count (I have placed the expanding trendlines in green. I think this is a very strong possibility.

Whether this is the count or the nested 1-2s, both imply the same thing, a wave 3 should follow.

The Fib retracements are for the LED count. Based on that, price has retraced 61.8% and 78% gets it just under the long term bear trendline. The LED count is off the table if the SPX cranks out a new high over 1112.42.

So until 1106.42 and 1112.42 are taken out, the count remains bearish.

As for the alternate count I have above, I show wave iv complete. If this count is correct, I would expect wave v up.

Some comments on the alternate count:

1. A new channel (black) was included using the 2-4 line to assist in determining where we may expect wave 5 to end. The orange circle designates the anticipated target. This is approximately 1107. Price may also target the top channel, that is estimated at approximately 1130.

2. The red and blue Fib fan lines are both set at 78.6%. Perhaps price may find resistance here? Price is up against the blue fan now.

3. The blue Fib lines represent the length of wave i. Wave v=i at approximately 1105. This measures up to the red Fib fan.

That is all I have for now. It has been a long day at work. Tomorrow, I will be just as busy so I do not anticipate updating charts throughout the day.

GL.

2/25/10 - AM [8:30 AM Update]

[8:30 AM Update]


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SPX Preferred Count

SPX Preferred Count


Looks like a few H&S patterns may play out. As I stated last night, this most likely will confirm the count I have going, (ii) is most likely done.

I have updated my cash count as well. I have (ii) complete as of yesterday at 1106.41. We then started wave i down and ii up of (iii) near the close.

I needed to see what the minis did overnight to confirm it so that is my highest probability count so far and it actually makes sense.

Long Term Head and Shoulders

Just updating this chart as it has progressed along. Check here for the previous posts on this chart.

2/24/10 - SPX EOD [9:15 PM Update]

[9:15 PM Update]
If the minis hold over night, they may just confirm that minuette (ii) on SPX is complete.

A possible H&S is in the works. Let's see if that neckline and channel breaks.

Check back in 9 hours.
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[3:50 PM Update]

I forgot to mention two things below.

1. The purple descending trendline connects the 1150 high and the next lower high at 1111.85. Price is closely approaching it. If there is more room to the upside, let's see if she holds her back.

2. It is possible minuette (ii) ended at 1106.42 where I have it labeled wave b (black). Look how it touched almost perfectly the green Fib line, which makes c=a.

SPX Preferred Count

SPX 5 Min


SPX 1 Min

Not too exciting today. Price action is still within the thresholds of my preferred count. In fact, I believe it is close to wrapping up here.

By this count, I'm looking for wave c (red) of y (green) of (ii) to complete tomorrow. There are two possible options for this final wave. Either a simple 5 wave impulse up, of which three are complete.

The other option is that wave c (red) is forming an ending diagonal, of which three waves are complete or in the works.

There are two Fib markers of interest. One is in red the other in green.

The red Fib lines represent wave a (red) of y (green). wave c (red) = .618a(red) at 1106. The green Fib lines represent wave w (green). Wave y = w at 1106.

Of course the above Fib markers are just guidelines and the waves may do whatever they so please. We shall see.

My alternate count remains the same as well.