3/5/10 - SPX and RUT EOD [7PM Update]

Thanks Blankfiend. This chart is related to the comments below.
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Count 1

Count 1 15 Min

Count 2

RUT

Well there goes that Fib theory. Not to fret, there is still some hope for the bears. Both counts still work.

For those unfamiliar with EW, wave 2 is no longer considered a wave 2 when it retraces beyond the start of wave 1. In this case, wave 1 started at 1150.45 so until price takes it out, the bounce off 1044.50 may still be considered a wave 2.

Ninety percent retracements for wave 2s are not uncommon either. Wave 2s are supposed to be sharp and fast. Granted I would consider the probability of it being a wave 2 diminishes once above 78%.

So onto the charts above. Price is approaching the 90% retracement from the 1150.45 high thru 1044.50 low. For both counts, a final 5th wave appears to be in progress.

Price is also coming up on the broken trendline from 978.51-992.25.

Notice the Fib relationships above as well at 1154. More possible targets. Now if price breaches 1150.45, wave [ii] is out the window and P2 may have to be re-examined.

The final chart is that of the RUT. It appears to be in a similar situation but I have it as completing P2. Looking for a final fifth wave.

I'll post an alternative count should 1150.45 be taken out next week over the weekend.

3/5/10 - SPX

It looks like with the jobs report, futures are indicating a thrust higher into the open. That shouldn't be shocking considering we were dealing with a wave iv triangle which appeared to breakout into the close yesterday.

The top chart highlights yet again another Fibonacci confluence. This is one projection I am making from the impulse out of the triangle breakout.

Yesterday, waves i and ii appear to have completed with iii in progress. The green Fib represents the length of wave i. If iii were to take on the typical relationship of 1.618 of i, I show it at 1124.94 (approx). I have placed wave iv at approximately 1123.12, which would be a 38.2 % retracement of iii.

The purple Fib is a measurement of waves o-iii (i.e. measured from the end of iv blue up to where I am projecting where iii green ends). So wave v green equals .618 of o-iii = 1127.30 and v = o-iii = 1129.

Hmm. Strange how those two numbers keep reappearing.

Again, will this be right? Who knows but it is definitely worth watching to find out.

3/4/10 - SPX EOD [8:55 PM Update]

[8:55 PM Update]Preferred Count

Alternate

Well I was able to get out of my prior engagement and had a chance to look at the charts.

I have updated a few things on my top chart and I really like the count enough to make it my preferred. What stands out the most to me is the extremely heavy Fibonacci confluence at 1127-29.

I try to look for this all the time but have not run into one where the levels are so tight and so abundant. Of course in the end this could mean nothing but I would think there may be some validity to this.

On that top chart, I also placed some alternate labels. Whether you go with the alternate labels or my preferred, they both lead to the same place.

One additional alternate label to be mindful of is the one indicating that the turn has already occurred and the structure from the 1125 top is a wave i down.

The following is a summary of the Fib relationships and the case for the 1127-29 top/turn:

- Red Fib = v = 1.618 i
- Blue Fib = v=.618 i
- Green Fib = v(red) =.618 of wave o-iii (red)
- Gray Fib = 78.6% retracement from 1150 -1044
- Gold = v (black) =1.618 x o-iii (black)
- The red trendline resistance intersects the Fib confluence
- The triangle target intersects the Fib confluence and trendline resistance
- The long term bear trendline may provide resistance in the same range

The second chart is an alternate count. I'm not too fond of this count. But since I have been tracking, I figured I'd put it up for now.

This count also indicates price reaching 1127-29 as above. The one major difference here is if y=w, 1152 may be in the works.





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I cannot post a chart tonight since I do not have access to my charting software. However from what I gather into the close, not much has changed. There are two counts that I'm watching and at the moment I still do not prefer anyone over the other.

Both imply a turn near the same level, one just may get there sooner than the other. Please refer to the link above for those counts as well as the posts earlier today.

3/4/10 - SPX Update [8:00 AM PST- FIVE FIB CONFLUENCES]

[8:00 AM PST- FIVE FIB CONFLUENCE]
I found a fifth fib relationship at 1127. It is the gold fib markers. This represents waves o (1086.02) thru iii. Wave v = 1.618 o-iii.
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This is the other count I had going. There is a nice Fib confluence going here (four) that may indicate a turn is near.

A big fib relationship i don't see mentioned very often is that of wave 5 to waves 1-3.

EWP actually designates it as wave 0-3. 0 being the start of the wave. Wave 5 typically is .618 of waves 0-3 (ie again start of the impulse thru the end of wave 3). The green Fib markers on the chart represent the impulse from the beginning through the end of wave iii.

So either of my two counts show a significant Fib relationship at 1127-1129. Let's see if it serves as a turning point.