Thursday, March 11, 2010

3/11/10 - SPX AM [10:00 AM Update]- Leading Diagonal or Triangle?

[updated 10:00 AM]

Of course this was the other option. A wave iv triangle, which implies a thrust higher once it's complete.
-------------------------


Possible? We'll see...

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

If P2 Is Still In Progress...

DOW


DOW 60 Min ED


SPX



SPX 60 Min ED


I'm not sure if I have seen this count out there with the other EW bloggers. I'm still watching this count but should SPX breach 1150.45, I would immediately turn to this count.

Based on this count above, the move off 9835.09 (DOW) and 1044.50 (SPX) is a minor wave C ending diagonal of intermediate (Y) of P2. It appears three subwaves have completed/near completion. I'll be looking for a pullback for wave [iv] before a final 5th works prices higher. Again, this is all assuming that 1150.45 is breached to the upside.

3/10/10 - SPX EOD



She looks like she's getting close. I think Blankfiend's initial hunch is still right.

A wedge is forming, which implies a potential Ending Diagonal is in the works. I think the ED begins were I have the second wave iv on the right. My upper contracting trendline is arbitrarily drawn in but I anticipate that price will paint within that two trendlines.

I'm still sticking to this count but do want to point out that if 1150.45 is taken out on a final thrust up for this ED, a top is still expected. What would change at that point is that I would consider that the top of P2 vs minute [ii] of P3 or the top of a minute [X] wave before a minute [Y] down.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

3/9/10 - SPX EOD [2:30 PM RUT Update]

[2:30 PM RUT Update]

An update on the RUT. Looks like so far price is respecting the purple trendline, which is parallel to the lower red one below.
-----------------




The count looks done or very close to it. I added the orange EW channels, which has price very close to the top channel and may signal an end to this move. However, there still may be one final push higher tomorrow if the structure near the end of the day was a wave iv.

The bottom chart includes the 60 min MACD. I spot one trendline break. Looking to see if there will be a second.