Tuesday, March 16, 2010

3/16/10 - DOW EOD [10:14 PM Update]

[10:14 PM Update]
DOW Option 2

This is another count I have played around with. It is similar to a count I used for the SPX previously.

This count calls for a larger minute [y] ending diagonal to complete Minor C of Intermediate (Z). If this count is correct minuette (v) is in progress and is near completion.

Minuette (v) cannot exceed the length of minuette (iii) and therefore minuette (v) cannot exceed 10707.98. We'll see.
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Here's the SPX. Looks like Option A is out from this old post. Option B, which has a target of approximately 1180 is certainly still in play.

Those Fib relationships from the previous post will have to be readjusted since minute [iii] appears to have pushed higher.

Though the DOW and SPX are sporting different structures, there may be a way to count them completing together. In order to achieve this, the SPX has to be re-labeled (which I have not done here) to show that it is in a final Intermediate wave (Y) up off the 1044.50 low.

Intermediate (Y) would consist of an a-b-c zigzag (on my chart, substitute the [i] with an [a] and [ii] with a [b]). The push off [b] is a [c] nearing completion. This would correspond with the Dow completing it's ED.

We'll see. I think SPX wants to hit its H&S target, plus there's a nice rising trendline above that it may want to kiss. I'll play around with the Fibs again giving the new level for [iii] and see if this will still work.
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[1:33 PM Update]
Here is a chart of a possible target if the alternate labels are in play. Subminuette v cannot exceed iii if this is a legitimate ED.

I'm not saying this is where the DOW is headed, but this would be the maximum if this count is the correct one and this ends in a throwover.

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Looks like the DOW is almost there. I cleaned up the labels a little bit but I think this is the best way to label it for now.

Notice the alternate labels in gray. This is another way to count it and if it is right, I also like the way the final minuette (v) gray counts (i don't have the subminuette waves labeled) as and Ending Diagonal itself.

I will post a SPX chart a little later. There has been talk of an expanding diagonal, which I had give some thought to when it was in it's early formation. It appears that there may be a legitimate one forming now. Check back later for that count.

3/16/10 - DOW AM Update [10:40 AM PST Update]

[10:40 AM PST Update]

I threw in some alternate labels here. It's possibly working it's way down to the 2nd (b) and finds support just in time for the Fed rate decision. A final thrust for [v] ending in a throwover and then a sell the news event? We'll see....
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Here's a continuation of yesterday's chart.

Monday, March 15, 2010

A Random Observation


I was just looking at the longer term view and just so happened to notice a possible pattern with the 1576 top and the current price action. Both look like double tops but what I also find to be interesting is the similarity in the candlestick patterns themselves.

The first 3 candles for each period are nearly identical and for some reason it just stands out as though something is about to repeat. Who knows for sure. Again, this is just a random observation.

3/15/10 - A DOW Top Tomorrow?



By this count, it is possible, this Ending Diagonal for the DOW ends tomorrow.

Refer to the earlier AM post for the overall count.