3/19/10 - SPX, DOW and RUT EOD

DOW

SPX

RUT

This is a general overview of my counts for the DOW, SPX and RUT. At this point in time I show a disparity in the counts.

The DOW and RUT has potentially topped while the SPX is working on a minute wave [iv] of minor C of intermediate (Z).

I will provide a more thorough analysis of the counts over the weekend.

3/19/10 - SPX AM Update

SUPERCYCLE V IN PROGRESS?

I'll be honest, I haven't really given this super long term count much thought but something about cycle wave C stands out to me; at least the way I have it labeled.

SuperCycle IV in this case is a regular flat. It looks pretty good. Cycle wave B exceeds cycle wave A by just a tad and then cycle wave C exceeds A by just a tad as well. In this case cycle wave C is approximately 115% as long as A.

EWP guidelines states that wave C is usually between 100 and 165 percent as long as A.

The long term MACD is sporting a bullish cross. Look what happened the last time that occurred, new highs at cycle wave B. The histograms are not sporting any negative divergences as well.

I am by all means bearish on the economy but realize there may be a third bubble in the works that I will call the treasury bubble. The dot com and sub-prime bubble preceded this one. Maybe we borrow some more time for one final hurrah to a triple top?

I know this count doesn't have supercycle iv retracing back towards the previous wave 4 of lessor degree but that isn't a rule anyway.

Just some bull fodder to chew on. Besides, maybe if we start providing bullish blogs, the market may just do the right thing :) (I'm finally catching on Binve!)

Feedback is always welcomed!

3/18/10 - SPX EOD

Ok. Here's an update to the SPX trade chart. Technically that short trade is still alive albeit hanging on a thread. Based on the movement of price today, it is most likely a wave 4.

So far the structure counts best as a double zigzag and I have it getting close to completing.

It is still possible that this also may be counted as a wave 1-2, especially if one were to believe the alternate count (in gray) on the second chart but again most likely a 4 since the overall count (in red) may call for it.

As for trading this move. At some point at the open today a short position may have been taken once price hit the 61.8% Fib and bounced off it. However, as the day progressed it appeared more likely that this was shaping up to be a wave 4.

By the end of the day, it appears that exiting the trade may be a safer bet. There may be one more push lower tomorrow but most likely it will be limited. However, if one were to take an aggressive bet that a third wave down may come tomorrow, just remember to honor that stop above at 1169.84 in case it turns out to be a wave 4 and a fifth wave thrust up tomorrow occurs.