5/3/10 - E-mini AM Update [9:50 AM PST Update]

[9:50 AM PST Update]

Just some thoughts on the X wave of Minor B
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Let's see what channel she wants to surf...

5/2/10 - SPX Channel [10 PM PST Update]

[10 PM PST Update]

Ok. I had to use my TOS platform to look at the 5 min count. The count above is based off of the 60 min count below with a few adjustments and options.

The wave structure down counts well as a leading diagonal. It appears that it requires just a little bit more downside to complete subminuette v of the LD. This would most likely complete wave (a) of [y] or  (b) of [x] of Minor B.

Either way a bounce should be expected and because this appears to be wedge-like, a sharp 78% retrace should be expected. This would take us back to approximately 1205. The Fibonacci retracement levels are on the second chart.
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[2 PM PST Update]

 SPX - DAILY PREFERRED

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

 SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

Some additional charts supporting a potential double three for Minor B.I updated the daily chart highlighting the rectangle pattern to include the ones that resulted in a decent pullback. So at the moment, it can go either way.

I had hoped that the glitch in my charting software for the 5 minute time frame would have corrected itself by today but unfortunately it has not. I have the structure from 1209.36 labeled as a double zigzag for minuette (a) of the second three of this double three formation. 

I am implying that we may see this work itself out as a flat, so that would imply that a minuette (b) is in store on a bounce back up before a minuette (c) takes us back down towards the 1180 support area once again.

We will just have to see if this structure pans out. Once again there are targets to the 1170-1150 area that have been identified if this double three structure fails. The alternates for the counts are in gray. 

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Here's a chart I posted on the CiL a week or so ago. It looks like the market is slowly working its way down towards the next lower channel. Notice on the second chart how a backtest was rejected?

I have placed some price levels on the chart as it corresponds with the upcoming week if it were to find support on the next lower channel line.

The pink rectangle highlights the range the market may slosh around in over the next few weeks as well and come to find support near the 1180 area by 5/17/10.

I'll will also be paying attention to the Fibonacci retracmement levels. So far a 23.6% retracement has occurred. Though it has technically met a Fib retrace level, let's watch out for a more proper one between 38-62 as well.

GL!

5/2/10 - Examination of an Ending Expanding Diagonal

**Note: Based on the comments below to this post, I want to make sure it is clear what I am trying to present here. All I'm saying is if this final structure near the top here is supposed to be an expanding diagonal (not my preferred count), it could not have ended at 1219.80. 

Because expanding ending diagonals are rare per EW, this is not a high probability option. But should it turn out to be one, my option above implies that this structure would end at new highs and that it would most likely only signal an end to Minor A. **

First off, my preferred count at the moment is found here. Second the expanding diagonal pattern is considered a lower probability pattern per EW.

I just wanted to address why I believe that 1219.80 cannot be considered the end of the leg up from 1044.50. I believe there is a  greater probability that that end occurred  at 1191.80. I have it labeled as 1 in orange.

The chart above shows two potential counts.

The green count has a Minor A top at 1191.80 and the structure to follow is a flat for Minor B. Minuette (c) may have completed at 1181.62 or it is still in progress and may take on a length at any one of the Fibonacci levels as it relates to (a).

The second option on the chart is the expanding ending diagonal. I'm not sure if I have seen another version of the count that has it ending at 1219.80, but if there is, I have provided commentary on the chart as to why I do no believe it is possible to count it in that way.

Per EW, wave 5s in expanding ending diagonals are always longer than wave 3. In this case 5 is shorter than 3.

Per EW guidelines on this pattern, wave 5 usually ends slightly before reaching a line that connects the ends of waves 1 and 3.  In this case, this does apply, however, the rule has been broken.

Now moving on, it is still possible to consider the expanding diagonal, however it may still be in progress. We may consider wave 4 in progress or it ended at 1181.62 and 5 is now in progress.

If the smaller expanding diagonal count is to be confirmed, the market must drop in a dramatic fashion tomorrow. However, if key support levels (1180) are held, then refer to my preferred counts for some possible directions or the green count on the chart above as another option.

Thank you to Kazoom from the CiL for bringing the larger expanding diagonal to my attention. (Sorry Kazoom if that was not you.!)

5/2/10 - SPX Channel [2 PM PST Update]

[2 PM PST Update]

 SPX - DAILY PREFERRED

SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

 SPX - 60 MIN PREFERRED

Some additional charts supporting a potential double three for Minor B.I updated the daily chart highlighting the rectangle pattern to include the ones that resulted in a decent pullback. So at the moment, it can go either way.

I had hoped that the glitch in my charting software for the 5 minute time frame would have corrected itself by today but unfortunately it has not. I have the structure from 1209.36 labeled as a double zigzag for minuette (a) of the second three of this double three formation. 

I am implying that we may see this work itself out as a flat, so that would imply that a minuette (b) is in store on a bounce back up before a minuette (c) takes us back down towards the 1180 support area once again.

We will just have to see if this structure pans out. Once again there are targets to the 1170-1150 area that have been identified if this double three structure fails. The alternates for the counts are in gray. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a chart I posted on the CiL a week or so ago. It looks like the market is slowly working its way down towards the next lower channel. Notice on the second chart how a backtest was rejected?

I have placed some price levels on the chart as it corresponds with the upcoming week if it were to find support on the next lower channel line.

The pink rectangle highlights the range the market may slosh around in over the next few weeks as well and come to find support near the 1180 area by 5/17/10.

I'll will also be paying attention to the Fibonacci retracmement levels. So far a 23.6% retracement has occurred. Though it has technically met a Fib retrace level, let's watch out for a more proper one between 38-62 as well.

GL!