11/24/10 EOD UPDATE #2 [EDIT 10:00 PM]

[EDIT 10:00 PM]
See the 10 min chart below.

EOD UPDATE #2

Once again the 1177-1200 levels are key to watch. As you will see below, a bullish and bearish option still exists.

IDEALIZED MINOR 4

I start out with this chart. This has been my primary road mad for Minor 4. So far so good. I believe minuette (a) and (b) of minute [b] was in as of yesterday and today's rally was the beginning of minuette (c) of minute [b].

I show various targets for minute [b] based on the Fib relationships of (c) to (a).

(c) =(a) at approximately 1203
(c) -1.618*(a) at approximately 1220 (the top of my triangle trendline)

I don't have the alternate labels on this chart (they are on my option 1b chart though) but minuettes (a) and (b) may also represent minuettes (i) and (ii). Take a look at that option below. I didn't want to further crowd the chart out but something to be mindful of.

OPTION 1b

This option is right on track as well. Today's rally is part of minuette (c) or (iii). Notice that I have left open the possibility that the rally was only part of subminuette iii of (c) or (iii).

I will drill down the squiggles over the weekend. Based on my 10 min chart below I believe we may have seen all five waves up of (c) or (iii). Again. I'll take a closer examination over the weekend to see if the entire five wave structure may still be in progress.

SPX 10 MIN

Based on the 10 min chart, I believe the five wave structure was near completion with a final fifth wave ending diagonal (ED).

Within that ED, the final fifth completed subwave a. I would expect on Friday a small pullback representing subwave b of v and then a final thrust higher out of the trendline near 1203 or so.

As I stated above, I'll try to determine if this is only the completion of a third wave.

10 Min Option [EDIT 10:oo PM]

The initial 10 min chart above implies that an ending diagonal is forming at the top. The chart I have added here is a little different.

There are several three wave structures at the top and I believe that an alternate is the subminuette iv may still be in progress. Notice the ALT labels.

So the options here are:

1. A final ending diagonal is nearing completion for this rally leg
2. Subminuette v of minuette (c) completed waves micro [1] and [2] and began [3] into the close
3. Subminuette iv is still in progress and is working out a complex corrective.

DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS

One thing that favors the bears I believe is the fact that the market closed below the 20 SMA again. This action may support the chart below.

BEARISH HEAD AND SHOULDERS SETUP

This option is certainly not out. The various Fib retracements and extensions still clearly support this count.

Say the 10 min chart above is correct and the rally leg ends at approximately 1203-1206 (a 62% retracement of wave A black BTW), that would support the completion of wave C blue as highlighted in the above chart.

That would satisfy the completion of wave B black, which would then be followed by a substantial drop in wave C black down to 1146 if C=A or 1111 if the H/S target is met along with C=1.618*A and a 62% retracement of the entire rally off the August lows.

11/24/10 -EOD Update - ED confirmed

EOD Update

10 Min

Cleaned up the 10 min chart to reflect the preferred count.

I believe that only subwave a of v black completed into the close. We may see a tiny little pullback wave b and then a final wave c of v black early monday to complete this ED.

Because wave iv black was a thr0w-under, I'm expecting wave v black to throw-over, which is typical following a throw-under at wave iv.

The other option I'm going to explore is if this only completes a wave 3 leg versus a complete five wave move off yesterday's bottom.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!! GET ON THE ROAD AND BEAT THAT TRAFFIC!
12:54 PM Update



12:40 PM Update
Triangle or ED??

Taking out wave a black confirms it was a triangle and the thrust was minimal but made a new high. That is all that is required.

However, notice that if the lower black trendline supports the pullback, the blue line traces out the potential ED.


12:25 PM Update

Tri breakout confirmed. 1202-1204 is the target.

12:00 PM Update
Keep in mind triangles tend to be drawn in too quickly so this may need some more time but does look fairly balanced.
11:30 AM Update

Opt 1b

Zooming out a little for some perspective. We are above the 1195 pivot.

11:25 AM Update

11:15 AM Update
This is the current count.

11:00 AM Update

Idealized Minor 4

Here's an update to this chart. The "or [b]" label sits near 1206 if (c)=(a) green. (c)=1.618*(a) right about where the top of the triangle is located.
10:50 AM Update

5 Min

9:29 AM Update

abc-x-abc option for minute [b]

This is a speculative call on a possible path for minute [b].
9:05 AM Update

3 min

This chart was presented in the chat room earlier. Please feel free to stop on in for more real time analysis.
8:04 AM Update

10 Min

If the triangle option for minute [b] is to apply, the market cannot break above the red horizontal line.

7:46 AM Update

Opt 1b

Cleaned up the chart a bit to highlight the potential target for minuette (c) of minute [b]. A 61.8% retracement of [a] takes the market to 1206. 1200 is also a viable target.

Notice the subminuette degree waves i/a, ii/b and iii/c may be readjusted to micro if this is the first five wave leg for subminuette i if the rally pushes higher.

7:35 AM Update

Opt 1b

1177 proved to be worthy of support yesterday. Though the bottom yesterday was a tad messy to count but I was more confident that this level would hold for a bounce.

The above count, though not perfect is the best explanation. Yes this is after the fact but that is what happens with EW every now and then.

I drew in triangle trendlines in pink above. That relates to the chart below and the other option I presented last night.

Opt Triangle

11/23/10 EOD Update

Minor 4 Idealized Structure

I added the triangle trend lines again. Not saying this is how it's going to happen but one way it can happen. Minute [b] may still retrace all of [a] and then lead into a combo corrective where minute [c] ends as an ending diagonal. Refer to this figure for an idea of what I'm referring to.

Ok. I lied. I added another option to keep in mind below. It is a minute [b] triangle option.

Option 1b

This is the primary count. I don't have time to update all the other options tonight so I'll just show this one and a few others.

The market held the 1177 level again. If you recall this is the end of minute [iv] of Minor 3. So far it's looking like good support.

The wave count may support an end to the leg down here as well.

The MACD histograms are sloping higher on the 30 min.

The one bearish formation I'm watching though is highlighted in the chart below.


Looks like a bearish pennant there. The market may want to re-test 1173, which would form a double bottom if it bounces there. This option also accommodates a move to the 1150s.


The market closed just slightly below the center channel. I have been keeping my eye on that MACD trendline support. I was speculating whether Minor 4 pulls back to this level and bounces.

We will see in the next few days.

Minute [b] triangle

A minute [b] triangle and then minute [c] down to the lower EW channel?

11/23/10 12:09 PM Update

12:09 PM Update

Option 2

I still believe Opt 1b is in play but we cannot discount the other options out there. If a descending triangle is forming, this may be one path and count to the 1150s.
8:55 AM Update

Option 1b

Notice I added an ALT: [a] label.
6:37 AM Update

Option 1b

This is the top count at the moment. Option 1 was ruled out. Option 1a may still apply but I believe 1b is the better count for now.
Pre Market

/ES

Three waves down so far. Is it a correction or the start of a new impulse wave down? We'll know soon.

/ES

The dollar is at the top of the channel looking like it wants to break out.