Saturday, January 29, 2011
1/29/11 - Impulsive vs Corrective Options
We all know there is no certainty in life. So why would Elliott Wave be any different?
Whether it be long term or short term, EW provides a multitude of options by way of wave counts but what many continue to forget, when applying EW, is that it is about "limiting the possibilities".
So below, I have cleaned up some of my corrective counts and placed all the most likely scenarios I believe to be in play onto one chart.
As for the impulsive count, I believe the cup and handle chart I have been posting is the most likely scenario at the moment. I have not gotten around to creating an impulsive chart like the corrective one below, but will do so hopefully by the end of the weekend.
Keep in mind things are subject to change, such as life. However, what is presented to us at the moment is what it is so that is how we should roll; for now.
IMPULSIVE OPTION
CORRECTIVE OPTIONS
Whether it be long term or short term, EW provides a multitude of options by way of wave counts but what many continue to forget, when applying EW, is that it is about "limiting the possibilities".
So below, I have cleaned up some of my corrective counts and placed all the most likely scenarios I believe to be in play onto one chart.
As for the impulsive count, I believe the cup and handle chart I have been posting is the most likely scenario at the moment. I have not gotten around to creating an impulsive chart like the corrective one below, but will do so hopefully by the end of the weekend.
Keep in mind things are subject to change, such as life. However, what is presented to us at the moment is what it is so that is how we should roll; for now.
IMPULSIVE OPTION
CORRECTIVE OPTIONS
Friday, January 28, 2011
1/28/11 - EOD Update #2
There was a lot of technical damage done today. The count and options I presented yesterday have been whittled down to two. Either a wave 4 flat completed today or is near completion or a short term/intermediate top is in.
I'm still on the fence as to what type of top.
Here is the main count with the bearish option. However, I have some reservations regarding today's drop. I posted that earlier today here.
MACD daily is right at trendline support. If the bull case is still in play, it needs to bounce next week. Price also dropped down into the lower channel.
Here is the cup n handle chart to give you one perspective. This matches with the main count above with the appropriate degree labels.
Look at this puppy. I initially posted this chart on Wednesday.
Almost like clockwork, the 8th day after the MACD topped, we saw a long red candle for the second time in the row. MACD was also rejected on the backtest.
The point drop for both were almost identical too. The 4/27 drop was approximately 26 points. Today we dropped 23. What would have been even more interesting is if the 4/27 drop had occurred on 4/28 since today is the 28th.
Here is a closeup of the drop today and why I question the impulsiveness of the drop. It is very similar to the 1/8/11 drop.
Any how, because of the technical damage done today, closing below the 13 day EMA and key trendlines I have been watching, we need to consider this as a possible new wave down.
So for next week, a wave 2 bounce would be in store. We'll have to look for a proper Fib retrace in the 38-62% range once the low is in.
Keep in mind only one wave down has completed. One must also give consideration to the fact that it may only be a wave 'a' because what if we did top but this is a top of a larger degree wave 3 and we just saw the first leg of a larger wave 4? Just something to think about.
That's just something one must do if analyzing Elliott Waves. Because waves 1,2, 3 is identical to a,b,c in a series. It is wave 4 that differentiates a impulse from a corrective wave.
I'm still on the fence as to what type of top.
Here is the main count with the bearish option. However, I have some reservations regarding today's drop. I posted that earlier today here.
MACD daily is right at trendline support. If the bull case is still in play, it needs to bounce next week. Price also dropped down into the lower channel.
Here is the cup n handle chart to give you one perspective. This matches with the main count above with the appropriate degree labels.
Look at this puppy. I initially posted this chart on Wednesday.Almost like clockwork, the 8th day after the MACD topped, we saw a long red candle for the second time in the row. MACD was also rejected on the backtest.
The point drop for both were almost identical too. The 4/27 drop was approximately 26 points. Today we dropped 23. What would have been even more interesting is if the 4/27 drop had occurred on 4/28 since today is the 28th.
Here is a closeup of the drop today and why I question the impulsiveness of the drop. It is very similar to the 1/8/11 drop.Any how, because of the technical damage done today, closing below the 13 day EMA and key trendlines I have been watching, we need to consider this as a possible new wave down.
So for next week, a wave 2 bounce would be in store. We'll have to look for a proper Fib retrace in the 38-62% range once the low is in.
Keep in mind only one wave down has completed. One must also give consideration to the fact that it may only be a wave 'a' because what if we did top but this is a top of a larger degree wave 3 and we just saw the first leg of a larger wave 4? Just something to think about.
That's just something one must do if analyzing Elliott Waves. Because waves 1,2, 3 is identical to a,b,c in a series. It is wave 4 that differentiates a impulse from a corrective wave.
1/28/11 EOD Update- Caution to the Bears again
Caution to the bears again. This is a quick glance and squiggle view of today's decline. I'll spend more time later to make sure of the count. But I'm seeing the same problems as I did with the 1/18 - 1/20 decline.
Check out the post for the last wave down below. Gotta head out. Will post more later.
http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2011/01/12011-eod-update.html
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