5/4/11 - EOD Update [4:26 PM Update]

[4:26 PM Update]

I forgot to follow up with the YM chart I posted last night. Here it is again above.

Now compare it to today's action below.

Initially I thought wave x would turn into a tri before heading lower in a wave y. It turns out wave x was a flat. Wave y still = wave w though so we'll have to see if that has completed the correction or does this three wave structure represent a larger degree wave w.

If it is only the first leg down of a larger wave w, at a minimum we should see a wave x bounce of at least 38% of this decline. However, if the correction is complete, a new impulse wave up should be anticipated.

EOD Update

The selling continues in a corrective fashion down. The market has found support at the 13 day EMA and the inverted h/s neckline and horizontal support at the Minor 3 high.

It's very possible the market may want to test the 20 day MA as well since the bounce off the day's low may only be an x wave (see 15 min corr count below).

We will have to keep an eye on the daily MACD , which is rolling over, and it's trendline support.

I am still giving the Minor 5 bull count option the benefit of the doubt here until proven otherwise. Still watching the Minor 4 flat option as well

Minor 5 Bull Option

15 Min Impulse

A corrective move down to a 38% retracment. That's a valid retracement level.

Minor 4 Option

15 Min Corrective

Minor 5 Option

RUT Daily

A wave 5 ED?

RUT - 3min

5/4/11 - 7:36 AM Update

7:36 AM Update


RUT DAILY

May have to bring the ED option back.


Pre Market



Looks like this option won.

5/3/11 - EOD Update [9:40 PM Update- SLV]

[9:40 PM Update- SLV]

SLV

Was reading an article on the PMs just now and it got me thinking about looking at silver. I just put this chart together in 5 mins and think it may be a decent count.

If SLV is in a wave 4 of 5 of [3]/[C] pullback, it should not retrace back into wave 1 at 35.78. Well see.

I may like the alternate count better.

If I forget to update this chart in a week or two, please remind me.

[9:25 PM Update]

YM (Dow futures) is sporting a potential triangle at the bottom of the current decline. This leads me to believe that an x wave (or b) is forming down here before an additional leg down is to come. Or it's completing a wave y triangle as depicted below.

I believe we have seen a larger version of this before back in late Feb/early Mar this year. In that situation, the market broke down.

The trendlines should provide guidance once the market breaks through one of them.

We'll see if ES is intending to do the same thing.

EOD Update

Looks like the head and shoulders pattern finally played out and hit it's target today of 1350. Based on the 5 min chart below, that may have wrapped up a double zigzag for wave 4.

5 Min

A daily hammer candle formed today so confirmation tomorrow will be needed should wave 5 of [3] be considered in progress.

Minor 5 Option

I like this option the best right now.

Minor 4 Option

But I remain mindful of this option.

5/2/11 - EOD Update [6:30 PM Update]

[6:30 PM Update]

My two best bigger picture options are below and I really like the minor 5 option. I believe minute [3] may still be working itself out.

Minor 5 Option

Minor 4 Option

EOD Update

15 Min - Impulse Option

I'm still thinking this is still favoring one more push towards 1370 again. A few options on that chart.

A positive MACD divergence developed on the 3-5 min time frames so we'll have to see if an x wave bounce is in order. Ther

Notice the wedging nature of this structure? It may be a leading diagaonal or a double zz which may call for a another leg lower but a sharp bounce should result for either once complete if not already complete.

Corrective Option

This count may have the rally complete and a larger double zigzag is in the works with a target of 1350 or a more bearish nested 1-2 i-ii off today's high.