5/30/11 -

8.5 hours to go. That inverted h/s looks to be playing out. The target there is approximately 1342.

So far a pretty decent break out of the descending channel. Let's keep an eye on the inv h/s target as well as that ascending trendline (blue).

5/28/11 - EOW Update

EOW Update

I was able to do a little housekeeping on the charts and think I can finally rely on one chart for now. At least for now.

Minor 4 Option

My Minor 4 count has been the go to one. There are still 4 sub-options that I have ranked in order and color-coordinated.

Minor 5 Ending Diagonal

Here's something to think about. This is a chart I put together based on a count provided by Geno who currently posts at DinosETF. I took this count into consideration and applied the Golden Section technique.

According to EWI, "wave 4 often divides the price range of an impulse wave into the Golden Section. In such cases, the latter portion is .382 of the total distance when wave 5 is not extended and .618 when it is."

In this example, I am assuming W5 is extending and thus "the latter portion" is .618 of the entire structure. Should this technique prove to be valid, Minor 5 projects to 1433.

I'm not completely sure of all of this but the main reason why I posted this is because if one measures the length of wave 3 in this ED scenario, it's length projected from where I currently have wave 4 hits 1433 right on the money. So this may be something to consider along with other reasons that the 1400s has come up.

GOLDEN SECTION, courtesy EWI

An illustration of a W4 dividing the structure into the Golden Section when W5 extends. See more from EWI on this here.

PREVIOUS BEAR COUNT

This was the bear count I had been tracking and is out as it is labeled due to Friday's little move higher. However, see the new one below. Bulls need to be aware of this one.


This is the most updated bear count and was brought to my attention by Andrew in the Chat room. This is the last chance effort for the bears near term.

Wave (2) is a running flat in this scenario so we have a nested (1)-(2) 1-2 down here. The next few days will be crucial.

Notice the two intersecting trendlines at 1337. Those could prove to be beneficial to this count. However, should the market rally out of the down channel and take out 1346.82, this count will be dead along with any longer term bearish count and further provide an edge to my Minor 4 options above.

Ok. That is probably it from me for the weekend.

I just want to take a brief moment to thank every military personnel, here in the US and anywhere else in the world, who currently serve and have served to provide the freedoms that we enjoy.

More importantly, I hope all of you take a moment over this Memorial Day weekend and pay tribute to those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice to provide us with these freedoms.

5/26/11 - EOD Update [8:45 PM Update]

[8:45 PM Update]

SPX 5 Min

In the CiL today I speculated that the market was setting up a gap and go event for tomorrow. Here's a 5 min view of that setup.

So far ES is working towards that but it's a long way between now and 9:30 AM EST but we shall see in a about 9-10 hours.

[8:29 PM Update]

TF

TF appears to be leading.

ES

Let's see if ES hits the top of it's channel at 1333.


[4:45 PM Update]

Minor 4 Triangle Option

This is the top option. At the moment this best explains the corrective three wave structures we have been seeing.

I think [c] is done but the 60 min chart below shows that possibly one more touch lower is possible, however, as long at 1313 holds, we'll consider wave [c] complete.

ES, TF and the 60 Min chart clearly shows a new potential three wave move up that appears to be the beginnings of wave [d] so we will see.

The ES inverted head and shoulders appears to be on track.

TF

Finally broke out of it's falling wedge and heading for the upper trendline. That looks like the beginning of a decent impulse. Granted at this point that's three waves up. 837 would make that third leg up equal to the first. If it extends 1.618*, it will equal 851.

Minor 4 Flat Option

Here's all the other sub-options for Minor 4 which also remain valid.

The Bear count is still valid but again I don't think the odds are in it's favor. I have added an addtl alt label that would make it a nested (1)-(2) 1-2 vs a triple 1-2 down.

EOD Update

60 Min

I think the market his attempting to tag either the green or red trendline above at minimum. More later.

5/26/11 - 9:52AM Update

9:52AM Update

TF

Here's a version of TF with Fib extensions.
9:28 AM Update

RUT

With that hrly +ve MACD divergence and a fairly decent looking impulse wave up, I would bet that rut breaks out of that falling wedge.

Pre Market

Holding above the mid channel for now after the release of the GDP and initial claims data.

The left shoulder resides at 1310. A 62% retracement of yesterday's bounce is also also at 1310. So should we see a pullback here, let's see if this level means anything.

One thing I can see it doing is wedging it's way down the mid channel and complete a wave b of [d] of the triangle I have been proposing. Wave a of [d] was all of yesterday's bounce.