EW channeling magic.The top of the channel is at approx 1193.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Friday, October 7, 2011
EOD Update [Sunday 10/9 5:10 PM Update - ]
[Sunday 10/9 - 5:10 PM Update]
With ES up 9 points as of this posting and assuming that it holds, this chart I posted in the chart room Friday is going to be the one to watch.
And though I added that 10 min chart below showing a completed five wave impulse up, I can't ignore what ES may be telling us. Again, we should have a better clue near the US market open tomorrow morning.
A positive 5-6 point open tomorrow still leaves room for it to be a wave 2 of c down.
[Sunday 10/9 Update]
Just adding to the comparisons being made with 2008. Once again, I still don't buy the move down from 5/2011 as a five wave impulse.
However my alternate count does allow for a three wave move down off the 5/2011 high as a W-X-Y so this analogy to 2008 would still work up until the end of the third leg.
I'm adding this 10 min chart update to Friday's EOD Update here just to keep things all together.
The more I looked at the squiggles, the more I liked this as a completed five wave impulse up (wave 1 black) with a flat for wave 2 in progress.
Of course we shouldn't ignore the fact that the pullback could still be a wave 4 so I have left the alternate green labels in.
Irregardless of whether it is a wave 2 or 4 pullback, I do like the solid Fib confluence at 1134.xx. So should the market open red Monday, this will be the first level I'll be expecting a bounce if 1150 is taken out.
EOD Update
Looks like the bulls may have the advantage at the moment over the next several week due to several positive divergences that were confirmed this week.
Here's a weekly refresher on the longer term count. The primary view is that a primary degree wave 2/B/X has completed and a very bullish Primary degree wave 3/C/Y has begun. The alternate view is that a minor degree wave W completed and now a minor X is underway.
So it doesn't' really matter if one disagrees with the primary view at the moment. Both views are looking for a decent size bounce towards 1220-1250. This is a 50% retracement from the 5/2011 -10/2011 decline.
Notice that if you believed there were five waves down from 5/2011-10/2011, a bounce of this magnitude is also expected.
Here is a daily view of the Primary long term count. We are looking to identify the completion of wave i of 1. Based on the 15 min chart below, it's pretty close if not already completed.
I'm still a little unsure if five waves up have completed. For now I'm leaning towards a wave 4 flat is in progress with wave c down of the flat into the close.
If 1150 does not hold early next week, 1136 appears to be a good target for wave 4. 1136 is the 38% retracement of wave 3 and wave c=1.618*a of 4, which is a nice confluence.
If the market has completed wave 1, I'm then expecting a wave 2 retracement near 1123. If wave 2 down arrives at this level, this would set up a right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders bottom with a 1250 target. See the Bollinger band chart below.
Keep in mind 1136 also fits into the picture as a retracement level here.
The market managed to close back above the mid channel. Let's see if the market targets the red TL above.
Still tracking Dr. Copper and it also appears to be working out a wave 4.
Let's keep an eye on Germany as well for clues. So far it appears to be on par with SPX and Copper.
I don't have too much faith in this count anymore especially wave ii yellow. It certainly cannot be deemed complete yet because at the moment it looks impulsive and would thus mean it has only complete wave a with waves b and c to come. By the time wave c comes, it may retrace back beyond wave i yellow.
The VIX equity buy setup appears to have followed thru this time around. It also closed below it's 20 day SMA today after a failed backtest. The last time this occurred it proceeded to drop to 30. This tends to support the move higher for SPX.
With ES up 9 points as of this posting and assuming that it holds, this chart I posted in the chart room Friday is going to be the one to watch.
And though I added that 10 min chart below showing a completed five wave impulse up, I can't ignore what ES may be telling us. Again, we should have a better clue near the US market open tomorrow morning.
A positive 5-6 point open tomorrow still leaves room for it to be a wave 2 of c down.
 |
| 5 Min |
 |
| 2008 REPEAT? |
However my alternate count does allow for a three wave move down off the 5/2011 high as a W-X-Y so this analogy to 2008 would still work up until the end of the third leg.
 |
| DJI |
 |
| Channel |
I'm adding this 10 min chart update to Friday's EOD Update here just to keep things all together.
The more I looked at the squiggles, the more I liked this as a completed five wave impulse up (wave 1 black) with a flat for wave 2 in progress.
Of course we shouldn't ignore the fact that the pullback could still be a wave 4 so I have left the alternate green labels in.
Irregardless of whether it is a wave 2 or 4 pullback, I do like the solid Fib confluence at 1134.xx. So should the market open red Monday, this will be the first level I'll be expecting a bounce if 1150 is taken out.
 |
| 10 min |
EOD Update
Looks like the bulls may have the advantage at the moment over the next several week due to several positive divergences that were confirmed this week.
 |
| Big Picture |
Here's a weekly refresher on the longer term count. The primary view is that a primary degree wave 2/B/X has completed and a very bullish Primary degree wave 3/C/Y has begun. The alternate view is that a minor degree wave W completed and now a minor X is underway.
So it doesn't' really matter if one disagrees with the primary view at the moment. Both views are looking for a decent size bounce towards 1220-1250. This is a 50% retracement from the 5/2011 -10/2011 decline.
Notice that if you believed there were five waves down from 5/2011-10/2011, a bounce of this magnitude is also expected.
 |
| Blue Count- Primary |
 |
| 15 Min |
I'm still a little unsure if five waves up have completed. For now I'm leaning towards a wave 4 flat is in progress with wave c down of the flat into the close.
If 1150 does not hold early next week, 1136 appears to be a good target for wave 4. 1136 is the 38% retracement of wave 3 and wave c=1.618*a of 4, which is a nice confluence.
If the market has completed wave 1, I'm then expecting a wave 2 retracement near 1123. If wave 2 down arrives at this level, this would set up a right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders bottom with a 1250 target. See the Bollinger band chart below.
Keep in mind 1136 also fits into the picture as a retracement level here.
 |
| Daily Bollinger Bands |
 |
| Channel |
 |
| HG |
 |
| EWG - ISHARES MSCI GERMANY |
 |
| Red Count |
 |
| VIX |
Thursday, October 6, 2011
EOD Update [8:15 PM Update: Copper On The Move]
[8:15 PM Update: Copper On The Move]
Looks like it wasn't an ED after all. Still looking for this to complete five waves up.
[3:25 PM Update : DAX - Five Waves Up]
HighRev in comments below mentioned the DAX so I decided to take a look. I apologize for the crude chart but I do not know the symbol for the DAX in TOS.
That's some pretty clean five waves up. This would line up well with the SPX count showing five up as well.
[2:50 PM Update: On The Way To 1180?]
Here's another way to look at the squiggles and a possible extension count. SPX is either extending wave 3 or completes all five waves just under the 50 day SMA.
I still like my primary below though ending right around the 1165-1169 area. However, the count above should be considered should the market rally further tomorrow.
EOD Update
Here's a simple chart I posted in the chat room earlier today showing what I thought would transpire over the next several days. That right shoulder does not have to pull back that deep either.
I'm eyeing the 1130-35 area first for any pullback and then 1120 next. This would equate to a 38% and 50% retracement respectively.
I tracked this count for the better part of the day with a few adjustments as the wave 4s were morphing.
So far this looks pretty good and I have this pushing up just a tiny tad more but based on this, the count should be nearly complete.
I will explore the micro count squiggles later tonight to see if this potentially is extending even further especially should the NFP number gives it a reason to extend.
A close above the 20 day SMA. This is a first since September 14. MACD is on the verge of a buy signal and confirmation of the +ve divergence which we have already seen with the McClellan Oscillator.
This is the top count. I like wave 1 ending right around here. It certainly can push a little higher but will see if that happens tomorrow. I'm expecting wave 2 to retrace down to approximately 1131-112x for a 38-50% retracement. Notice a backtest would occur of the descending channel as well.
I like that copper counts a pretty clean five waves up and ends with an ED, which makes me lean towards a five count completion for SPX.
This count is losing credibility with every day the market ticks higher. Wave ii yellow has now retraced wave i yellow 78.6%. This is pretty steep under normal circumstances but to do so in a 2nd or 3rd nesting hints at the chances this being the count is most likely not correct.
Looks like it wasn't an ED after all. Still looking for this to complete five waves up.
 |
| HG |
HighRev in comments below mentioned the DAX so I decided to take a look. I apologize for the crude chart but I do not know the symbol for the DAX in TOS.
That's some pretty clean five waves up. This would line up well with the SPX count showing five up as well.
 |
| DAX |
 |
| 5 Min |
I still like my primary below though ending right around the 1165-1169 area. However, the count above should be considered should the market rally further tomorrow.
EOD Update
Here's a simple chart I posted in the chat room earlier today showing what I thought would transpire over the next several days. That right shoulder does not have to pull back that deep either.
I'm eyeing the 1130-35 area first for any pullback and then 1120 next. This would equate to a 38% and 50% retracement respectively.
 |
| 5 Min |
So far this looks pretty good and I have this pushing up just a tiny tad more but based on this, the count should be nearly complete.
I will explore the micro count squiggles later tonight to see if this potentially is extending even further especially should the NFP number gives it a reason to extend.
 |
| Daily Bollinger Band |
 |
| BLUE |
This is the top count. I like wave 1 ending right around here. It certainly can push a little higher but will see if that happens tomorrow. I'm expecting wave 2 to retrace down to approximately 1131-112x for a 38-50% retracement. Notice a backtest would occur of the descending channel as well.
 |
| HG - 60 Min |
 |
| Red |
6:10 AM Pre Market Update
6:10 AM Pre Market Update
ES appears to be riding underneath the upper fork channel after piercing it last night. I believe it was up 7.5 only 40 mins ago and is not red.
That's a more convincing break out of that falling wedge. Let's see if it has some legs to it. If so, it should line up with the daily view below.
If this three wave structure off the top only represents a larger wave W, I would then expect a wave X bounce to at least 38% near $3.62. But we should also see what happens if it reaches the underside of the channel at $3.40.
 |
| ES |
 |
| HG - 60 Min |
 |
| HG Daily |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)