3/2/12 - EOD Update [Updated 3/3/12]

[Updated 3/3/12]

SPX - 60 Min Bullish ED Option

Yesterday I forgot to include this chart, which was the previous alternate count I had been presented through the week. This one still applies as well.

**Note this is not that much different than the new alternate presented below. Both counts imply one more last pop. 

Again, the bulls have the burden at this point to make a new high, however, there are a few ways to count this that allows for possibly one more stab at the rally high.

RUT -DAILY

A lot of talk about the RUT's weakness. This is my take if the channel holds.

EOD Update


The bears are trying but the bulls aren't giving up yet. Price continues to channel up and has not broken down below my yellow channel (see 60 min primary) yet.

The 5 min chart below shows the burden that is on the bulls. They need to make a new high or the triple nested [1]-[2], i-ii, [i]-[ii] will play out and result in a gap and go drop come early next week.

All the chop is still indicative of a possible wave 4 triangle and many weeks ago I mentioned that this wave could just extend higher and higher. See my new bullish alternate count below.

I will say that we have seen this type of choppy action before where everyone was looking for some type of triangle that evenutally failed. This could happen again so we must be aware of the bear count below.

Breaking below 1363 would be a good start to confirming the trend has changed.

SPX - 5 Min - Bear count

Gap and go Monday if the bulls have decided to go on vacation.

SPX - 60 Min Primary

The bulls may still have a chance for one more go at the high so long as price continues to channel up. Hasn't broken down out of the yellow one yet.

Note the resolution with the MACD trend lines though.

SPX - 60 Min Bullish Alternate

I think this is the best alternate count if the bulls want one more go at the high.

SPX - 4hr with 21 EMA

At support again. Will it hold?

Have a great weekend all!

3/2/12 - Pre Market

DX

 The dollar is in a bullish falling wedge. Not sure if there will be a wave 4 and 5 down though since there is a positive MACD divergence and bull cross. Keep an eye on the trend line.

ES

I initially tracked the ES in a triangle but it now looks more like an ending diagonal. If it has one more push up to complete the 5th of this ED, this would correlate inversely with the dollar above.

EUR/USD

A bounce to 38% retracement and so far a reversal. A daily MACD bear cross in place too.

3/1/12 - EOD Update [8:39 PM Update]

[8:39 PM Update]

Thats some nice channeling. Until it breaks...

EOD Update

Looks like tomorrow is going to be a telling day. The burden of proof is still on the bulls.

The bears have finally setup a decent nested 1-2 i-ii down. If th ebulls want to defeat this, they need to take out 1376.17 and then 1378.04.

Though the burden is on the bulls, I will say it does look closer to 50/50 at the moment since the bulls have fought to remain in the ascending wedge.

The VIX closed below the 20 day SMA again and the daily MACD is rolling over ready to bear cross again.

See the bullish alternate below, should the bulls push for a new high or a double top.

SPX - 60 Min Primary

Note the converging trend lines for MACD. It has come to a head. We should know tomorrow.

SPX - 5 Min Bear Option

A decent bear setup for once. Watch those levels above.

SPX - 5 Min Bull

There is some hope left for the bulls. Looking for the completion of wave [b] or iv before [c] or v moves up to complete this entire leg.

Note that a potential triangle may be in play here for [b] or iv.

SPX - 60 Min - Alternate

This goes with the bullish 5 min alternate above for the bigger picture. Note the bulls have fought to keep price inside the trend lines.

3/1/12- EOD Update

SPX 3 Min 

Note the where wave iii blue and (iv) may go.

Looks like a bounce at the lower end of the channel so far.