3/10/2020 - EOD Update

The SPX took out the 2954 level I was watching and as previously posted the alternate count once this level was taken out is now the primary. I cannot count five waves up off the March 2009 low so the running flat/combo corrective count for wave (4) makes the most sense.

So far buyers stepped in at the lower end of the channel. We'll see if a hammer candlestick prints by the end of the week as well.

Weekly

Here is a close up of the possible corrective options that could play out if we see a battle between the bulls and bears. Wave a of Y may have completed, with wave b of Y in progress.

A running flat has wave c of Y either falling short of the wave a of Y low or lower but not below wave w.

Or wave c of Y takes on a triangle after wave b completes. Let's see what happens.

Daily

2/27/2020 - EOD Update

The market flushed into the target zone and though initially found support at the 200 day SMA, eventually resumed selling below it and thus violating the count as previously posted.

I have adjusted the count to the next alternative with the invalidation point now set to 2954.13. If this is breached today, the long term bull count is not necessarily out as highlighted by the weekly chart below.

Daily

 Note: I will probably revamp the degrees for the count above to better reflect what we are seeing in the weekly below.

Weekly

 Perhaps wave (4) turns into a running flat or expanded flat. Some targets for wave (4) is the lower end of the trend line, 200 day SMA or last low on Dec 2018.

2/26/2020 - EOD Update

I think it is safe to say that wave (iii) has completed. The market has pulled back nearly 8% since the closing high and AH set for more damage down to 10% or so.

If this is wave (iv), the alternation guideline seems to be in play, assuming wave (ii) is correct. Wave (ii) appears to be a sideways correction, with wave (iv) a sharp one.

SPX - Daily

From a technical standpoint, the area in the oval appears to be a good target for the following reasons:

1. Support at the 200 day SMA
2. Back test of the top end of the expanding triangle trend line
3. 50% retrace of wave (ii)
4. Support at the wave (i) high at 3027.98, which if it penetrates lower, will violate the wave (i) rule.

I guess we shall see if the market cares about any of this.

2/12/2020 - EOD Update

Still not much to add other than tracking the end of wave (iii) and iii.

SPX - Daily

Look at the weekly chart. That trend still looks solid and if the SPX is aiming for the upper end of the channel, that's around 3,600.

SPX-Weekly