9/11/2020 - EOD Update

Man, pretty amazing when the squiggles play out as anticipated and especially when it does so in a fashion I was expecting. I kid you not, I did not move the dotted lines but the market traced out my wave (iv) almost to a tee, followed by wave (v) of a of y. 

After completing wave a of y, it looks like wave b of y attempted to retrace wave a by 38%. In my AM post, I placed b at 62% but it can end anywhere so I added the b? indicating that b ended near the close? 

One thing to note is the falling wedgie look this corrective wave has to it off the 3155 high so maybe some bulls step in early next week. 

 

On the daily interval, looks like price is wedged in between the 20 and 50 day moving averages so we'll see how this resolves. If lower, I'll be keeping an eye on the 3232 level and 200 day moving average.

9/11/2020 - Pre-Market Update

Since my last post, I wanted to wait for the market to signal the possible end to the count I have been tracking. I think the market finally completed the five waves up out of my triangle wave 4. 

The question is now what do these five waves off the March 2020 low represent in the bigger scheme of things. I'll try to post an update to my long term chart over the weekend if I have time. 

For now, the pullback looks corrective to me and it has been a while since I have taken the time to count the squiggles. On a 1min interval, this all looks corrective to me.

Best corrective count is a double zig-zag. So far waves w and x have played out and now it is working on wave a of y. My dotted lines on the 1min below is just a guess as to the expected path for y if it takes on another zig-zag pattern. However, the corrective pattern does not have to form another zig-zag. Maybe it turns into a triangle or just a bigger mess of corrective waves too hard to count before completing it's correction. We will just have to see.

SPX - 1 Min

On the 60 min below, iF wave y = w it will land somewhere near approximately 3188. It doesn't have to but just an area to keep an eye on IF it does. 

A more bearish view would call for a series of nested 1-2 i-ii waves down. I don't necessarily see it as a top alternate at the moment but mentally prepare oneself should we see a bigger flush beyond wave y=w.

SPX - 60 Min

The daily below with the moving averages included. Price is sandwiched in between the 20 and 50 day. After breaking below the 20 day, it has been rejected on the retest twice so far. 

SPX- Daily

 

9/11/2020 - Never Forget

 

9/2/2020 - EOD Update

Been a while but looks like wave 5 wanted to continue running and take out the all time high. It was easier just to watch this than to try to figure out the end of wave 5 of this five wave move off the March 2020 low. 

The only projection I'll put out there if this decides to run higher is, what level wave 5, as labeled here will equal wave 3. This projects to 3693.xx. 

Per EW rule, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Given that wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 therefore cannot be longer than wave 3.  

Are there enough sub-waves in place to consider wave 5 complete? Indeed. Will I try to count it? Sorry. No. Too tired and will just let the market signal the end, otherwise, I'll keep an eye on that 3693 level.

If wave 5 continues to climb and does not end there, a more bullish option may be playing out. I won't present that yet until a break above 3794 is cleared. 

 

GL

60 Min