10/22: SPX and TRANS

I've included a daily SPX chart similar to the one I posted for SPY yesterday. Looks like MACD shows a cross and with that I would expect price to turn lower and possibly fall within the trendline. 1040 looks like a reasonable target. Of course it's always possible a major sell off could occur smashing price right through that lower trendline.

As for the count, I updated the one from this morning to show that we are still in a possible 1-2 1-2 configuration. Wave ii red appears to have begun near the close.

I am generically (degree wise) labeling these waves for now. Suffice it to say, I am expecting a 3rd of a 3rd to occur something early next week.

Near term, 1040 SPX and 104 SPY are the targets that I'll be watching. MACD appears to be consistent at this point, so I will assume that today's cross will continue to show that price will fall further.

The trannie's hammer did not see a follow thru confirmation for a reversal and a cross occurred on MACD as well. So I would expect some more selling on the trannies next week.

SPX - 10/23 AM UPDATE

I don't have access to all my charts but wanted to post a possible count for today so I just put this simple one together. I'm thinking a series of 1-2s are playing out with a 3rd of a 3rd to play out possibly by today or early next well.

Of course the red 1-2 count goes out the window if price takes out today's high at 1095.83. However, it does not rule out the 1-2 count in blue until 1101.36 is taken out.

So far on the SPY, MACD is trending lower and about to cross the signal line. Price should follow through. We will see.

Trannies are dumping and DJ Utilities looking to form a possible Leading Diagonal down from the 388.61 high on 10/19. (Will post a chart on this later)

10/22: SPX, SPY and TRANS

Not much new to add tonight. Unless price takes out the 1101.36 high I still believe a new impulse wave is working it's way down. Wave ii, possibly minuette, worked it's way into the close.

Minuette ii bounced at the close right off the 78.6% retracement, which still qualifies it as a wave 2. We will just have to see if it pushes lower in what may be a minuette iii or are we in store for a final push higher to complete this leg.

I still find the 13 waves from the 1019.95 low on 10/2 significant. A move lower beyond the 1060 gap support would invalidate the alternate count I have labeled in blue.

I included a SPY chart because I wanted to highlight the negative divergence with the MACD and OBV indicators. One other thing to note is that with each MACD signal line cross (highlighted by the red bars), price followed accordingly.

In this case price pulled back and followed a trend with each successive drop .

It appears MACD is setting up for another cross (but it does also look like it may be flattening out). If it does, will price follow through and drop to the lower (purple) trendline?

The trannies are still working on their impulse. A hammer formed today but we will have to see confirmation of a reveral back up.

MACD is showing negative divergence.

SPX - 10/22 AM UPDATE

Here's another alternate count. We could still be forming the final minute waves 4 and 5 for Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) to complete P2. The count is labeled in blue as "Alt".

If price breaks below 1060, this alternate count is most likely out. If this count is in play, then I would expect a final push from minute 5. It is possible it would truncate as well and still fall short of 1100.

We will see if we get the end-of-day selling just like yesterday.