11/3 - SPX UPDATE and Weekly MACD

60 min

15 min

Weekly MACD

Weekly MACD Closeup

Trying to keep this simple. Though today's action did not make things decisively clear, we did rule out one of the three options I proposed yesterday, Option 1. The minuette (v) ED should be ruled out.

At this point, I say we are either working on minute [ii] or one more 1-2 structure.

Things to consider for the nested 1-2 counts:

1. Price closed today within the blue upper trend channel drawn from minuettes (ii) and (iv) and therefore maintaining the channel.
2. Price closed below the purple trendline (8/17, 9/2 and 10/2 lows) on a backtest.
3. Price tagged the 23.6% retracement from the 1101 - 1029 range.
4. Weekly MACD is getting very close to a cross
5. If price breaks below 1020, the nested 1-2s become the preferred count

Things to consider for the minute [ii] count:

1. I'll be watching to see if it breaks the trendlines mentioned in 1 and 2 above.
2. If price takes out 1052.81, minute [ii] is most likely in progress

Whether we are in minute [ii] or continuing to build on the 1-2s, I have a feeling that a decisive move lower is in our near future. But that's just a hunch. We will see...

11/3 - SPX WEEKLY MACD

Here's an update on the SPX Weekly MACD chart. A cross is very close.

This could be a case for the nested 1-2 count.

11/2 - SPX UPDATE: Wave (v) ED

15 min

There are several counts out there that appear to be very legitimate. Counts aside, I believe 1020(+/-5) will hold as a minute [i] with a minute [ii] bounce somewhere between 1060 and 1074. How and when we get there is up for interpretation.

At the moment, there are three counts that I am focusing on. I list them below in order:

Option 1: Wave (v) Ending Diagonal (Charts above)

I have to give credit to Chucker (who posted this count on EW TRENDS) for this count.

I like this potential count. As you can see price is starting to wedge, which is indicative of a possible ending diagonal.

I did not want to add the Fibonacci retracements on the chart (because I didn't want to overwhelm the chart with more lines) but wave ii is just shy of a 61.8% retracement of wave i and wave iv retraced wave ii almost exactly 61.8%.

Based on EWP guidlines, these are typical retracement levels for an ED. According to EW rules, the current structure has wave iii shorter than wave i and wave iv shorter than wave ii.

If this count is correct, I would expect the final wave v to find the bottom trendline near 1024 and possibly 1020 on an overthrow before minute [ii] reverses sharply as expected with ending diagonals.

On the 15 min chart, the squiggles appear to count as 3-wave structures, a requirement for EDs. Some may say that waves i and iii look like 5-wave structures and this would be acceptable since the guidelines states that wave 1, 3 and 5 in EDs sometimes appear to be impulses(EWP pg 88).

Option 2: Minute [ii] in progress

I believe Daneric has a count showing minute [i] complete at 1029.38 with minute [ii] in progress.

Option 3: 1-2s

Columbia1 has us in a series of 1-2s. This count will have us stair-stepping lower beyond 1020 with wave 3 taking us lower.

What I'll be watching for tomorrow:

- If price drops but holds at 1020, the ED played out and we should expect minute [ii] to reverse sharply higher.
- If price takes out 1052.81, the ED count is out and minute ii is in progress per Daneric's count.
- If price breaks below 1020, Columbia1's count is the one to watch.

11/2 - SPX AM UPDATE

This is one potential count I have for now. Minute [i] is in with [ii] beginning today and possibly lasting the the next few days.

Minute [ii] may target anywhere between 38.2 - 61.8% or 1060-1074. I see a top for minute [ii] perhaps by Wednesday on a FOMC rate hike surprise or by Friday on the jobs report. All speculation here of course.