8/12/10

8:45 AM - TRANS

Here's an update to this flag I posted a while back. Hmmm..backtesting...?

7:25 am UPDATE

Rangebound? 2nd right shoulder?

7:05 AM Update

Here's one to watch. An update to the 60 min bull count I have presented all along.

I have minuette (ii) labeled as an expanded flat with c of (ii) targeting 1080-1075. c of (ii) = 1.618*a of (ii). Wave (ii) also retraces (i) approximately 62%. Will all this correspond with the MACD trendline support?

This will correspond with a 5% correction some of the hedgies are looking for. Got this from CNBC.

8/11/10 - EOD

It's the battle of the head and shoulders and a struggle between the 50 and 200 SMA. As I posted earlier today, the 50 SMA was expected to provide some support. The question now is will it hold.

It looks like Cisco's results may add some fuel for the bears.

With the market below the 20 SMA the lower Bollinger Band looks like a ripe target at 1064. There is some support down near 1056 as well.

1056 appears to also fall near that black descending trendline drawn off the Apr high.

Perhaps we are working on a 38% retracment to complete T1 just like in 7/2009.

Here's an update to this chart. Remember those whipsaws last year??

Emini shows Fib support near 1050 as well.

8-11

 6:00 am - E-MINI

Looks like we're set for another gap down this AM. It should be safe to say the wedge is done.

Here's a look at the SPX Emini using the optional count. MACD is just a hair away from a sell signal.

Should this count pan out, minute [y] may play out back to the 1002 low in a 5-3-5 (a-b-c) fashion. One thing to note is the 23.6 and 61.8%Fib retrace levels. The market appears to have traded within that range, previously acting as support and resistance.

6:50 AM - Update

Here's the cash version that I posted yesterday. I'm keeping an eye on the alternate labels in gray. That implies a leading diagonal wave 1 up and now we are seeing a wave 2 pullback. [C] = 1.618*[A] at approximately 1094.

9:00 AM - Update

 And yet another way to count this puppy. That minuette (ii) is counted as an expanded flat.

9:05 AM - SPX MAs

 The 50 day SMA sits at 1088. Possible support for this selloff and a good place to cover if short. Heck, we're close enough...

9/10/10 - 12:30 PM Update

I didn't post anything last night because there wasn't anything worth pointing out. Today may be the day, however, in determining where we go.

As of this writing, the e-mini is down 10 pts and testing the lower ascending trendline. I have posted the above chart a few times now and noticed that prior to the breakout after P5, we saw a little dip, I have labeled as T1. That low was put in on 7/8/09 and retraced the 666 low to peak just over 23.6%.

So if we see a repeat in this pattern we may see a pullback to the 1090-1080 of the most recent rise off the 7/1/10 bottom.

But of course the flip side to that is the market reacts positively to the Fed meeting and breaks out above the inverted head and shoulders.

6:45 AM Update

And this is how it may be playing out with the optional count I have posted previously. Notice the alternate labels in gray. Retracement targets are the same as above. We'll see...

10:30 AM Update

 The Daily MACD is looking a little bearish. This diagonal (ending/leading) may be coming to an end. We are under the 200 SMA. The 50 sits at 1087. Hmmm..Maybe consistent with the first chart above.

 Many ways to look at it.

Weekly Bullish Option

Here's an update to another way I have counted these waves up. More importantly though for the moment, look at the MACD. The last few times I pointed this out, the Histograms continued to trend positive.

Should the market close green this week, I believe the weekly cross and centerline crossover will occur.

SPX - 60 MIN BEAR

 Did ya think I forgot all about my bear count? Here it is for good measure.