7/13/11 - Pre Market

Pre Market


Almost like the opposite of the overnight action the day before.

Anyone considering a cup and handle here?

7/12/11 - EOD Update [9:54 PM Update]

[9:54 PM Update]

Here's the more bearish count option I mentioned earlier.

Cup and Handle?
[6:35 PM Update]




Another reason for a bounce that may be in store. The Head and Shoulders pattern I presented the other day has nearly been met along with the backtest of the 5/2-6/1 descending trendline.

[6:18 PM Update]

Here are two corrective count options I see playing out.

1. The corrective wxy completed today right at the 1313 pivot, mid channel and lower trendline that forms that bullish falling wedge I presented earlier.

2. Today's decline into the close was wave a of y. Tomorrow a bounce for b near the upper channel at approximate 1318-1320 and then a drop for c back towards the lower wedge trendline.

For the more bearish options: please refer to my chart from yesterday's EOD update. I was expecting a bounce for wave 4/x towards the 1327 area, which we saw today. This may also represent a wave ii bounce of a bearish nested 1-2 i-ii.

The decline into the close, for the bearish case, represents either wave 5, a wave a of y, or the beginning of wave iii of the nested 1-2 case. I'll try to post that chart later.

EOD Update
It hit that 38% on the nose before reversing. If that is a 4 throw-over than 5 throws-under. However, there may be a few corrective count options there that may have this move complete.

Hmmm.. This still looks bullish. We'll see. I have a few count options in mind (of course).

Check back later.

7/12/11 - Pre Market [5:47 AM Update]

[5:47 AM Update]

Wow. What a difference a few hours makes.

Pre Market

ES didn't quite get the triple MACD +ve divergence I was looking for but there is divergence nonetheless. So far ES has recovered over 10 pts from the overnight trading.

Yesterday I forgot to post the 15 min cash chart below highlighting the head and shoulders pattern with a target of approximately 1311. This matches up with a tag of the 34 day EMA and a much closer tag of the descending TL connected by the 5/2 and 6/1 highs.

We'll see what happens at the open.

7/11/11- EOD Update [8:14 PM Update]

[8:14 PM Update]

Hmmmm... You decide if a triple macd +ve diverg develops.

Here's a look at my RUT count. Per EW channeling techniques, 5 could be done if it wants to only tag the mid channel. However, this could just be wave 1 of 5.

If it is complete, wave 5 will be considered truncated since it does not may a higher high.

[7:29 PM Update]

ES is down quite a bit tonight. I'll be keeping an eye on the 15 min MACD trendline there for clues to a possible bounce should a triple positive divergence develop. The retracement is near 50% as well.

[4:13 PM Update]

Weekly

Here's a chart I presented about a week ago or so. If I'm wrong about the wave 4 of Minor 5 pullback or [e] of minor 4, this weekly count may be the one in play.

I don't have it on there but MACD is curling up, which may be setting up for the wave iii launch to the upside.

[3:46 PM Update]

Here's a 5 min view of the count with the following options:

1. Five waves down in red that ended today either representing a larger degree wave 1 or A.

2. Three waves down with wave 4/x in progress possibly targeting 1325. Note this also sets up a potential double zigzag down.

3. A bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down with the wave ii bounce to approximately 1325 tomorrow.

EOD Update

This is still my primary and as previously stated, the wave 4 pullback is nearly identical to the wave [e] pullback.

Let's see if the 50 day SMA and the descending TL off the 5/2 - 6/1 highs completes this 4 of [e].

I have a few bearish counts in mind but will post those later tonight when I get a chance.

At minimium I say a bounce is in store tomorrow. How high will be the question. More later.