EOD Update

EOD Update

Overall a boring day today and questions remain as to the direction near term. I favor a break out of the inverted head and shoulders and ascending triangle that appears to be forming.

The 5 min and 10 min charts below highlight the near term possibilities. Again I favor a breakout up so I'm focusing on the 5 min chart. (Note: I don't really like the blue 1-2 as I have it labeled so the wxy green is more applicable at the moment).

5 Min - Primary Near Term

The inv h/s targets approximately 1170. Y=W at approximately 1155 which is also the 38% retracement of the most recent decline.

10 Min- Strong contender alternate

This surely would fit here after this most recent swoon. We should know by Sunday night I think as to the ultimate direction near term.

Blue Count Primary

This is still the primary until it is ruled out but I'm really liking the red count option right now, especially with what I'm proposing below.

Red Count Alternate

This proposed ED is purely speculation but would fit nicely with a double bottom at 1100. I do have C=.618* A at 1080 but that is the actual ratio for C to A. However, again, it would make for a nice double bottom if the ED ended right near 1100.

6:08 AM Pre Market Update

6:08 AM Pre Market Update

That certainly did not take long for ES to catch up.

5:35 AM Pre Market Update

Perhaps wave (X) is not complete yet for cash and I'm not sure if ES is lagging cash, but it now looks like it has caught up to the cash count. However, with ES still down 12 points as of this writing, it looks like cash will have to put in another low on this leg down.

I'll be updating counts in the chat room today.

EOD Update [1:25 PM Update]

1:25 PM Update]

I forgot to mention previously that my green count is no longer valid.

Additionally I believe the VIX closed out of it's upper daily Bollinger Band, which is the first step in triggering an equity buy signal

Should the bounce that I'm expecting tomorrow materialize, I would expect the VIX to pull back into it's BB. A close back inside and below today's close would be step 2.

And should the blue count be the correct option that would result in a rally that would result in the VIX printing another lower close after step 2, which then triggers the buy signal.

As always we shall see ...

1:00 PM EOD Update

This is the new and improved Blue count I posted in the AM. I believe it just completed it's (X) wave.

I can't get to the red the red count at the moment but it should have completed wave iii.

BLUE Primary - 60 Min

10 Min

7:43 AM Update

7:43 AM Update

Here's a modification of the blue count. We should remain mindful of this option.

Of course the red option has managed to pull neck-and-neck with blue.

Notice that SPX is still within the range and still forming three wave structures.

For real time updates, I'll be posting counts in the chat room.

5:19 AM Pre Market Update

This fork may be relevant

4:30 AM Pre Market Update [RED ALERT]

ES is off substantially overnight. As of this writing, it is down approximately 27 points. You would think both the blue and green options would be invalidated by now, but they are not. To a large extent, I wish they would though so that it would be easier to track just one main count.

Any way take a look at the max levels these counts can pullback to before becoming invalidated. The red count continues to strengthen it's case. If red is truly playing out, 1080 is a target I see for this market in the near future. Last night I posted my larger picture count so you should have an understanding of the implications for the red count.

The key levels at the moment to watch will be 1145 and then 1136.

ES - 4 Hr

Blue Count

I will be watching the green TL and the 90% retracement level of wave (a)/(w) at 1144-1145. If this doesn't hold, then 1136 is the next area to watch for support but this would mean a 100% retracement.

Green Count

Based on this count, a wave e low at 1145 places wave e right at the lower end of the triangle so this still remains absolutely valid.

Red Count

The most bearish one of all and look at the Fib confluence at 1080. Wave iii red = 1.618*i i red at 1080 and wave C yellow = .618* A yellow at the same level.