EOD Update [7:57 PM Update: Copper Eve and Adam Double Bottom?]

[7:57 PM Update: Copper Eve and Adam Double Bottom?]

I just realized that my copper chart at the bottom of the post may have put in an Eve and Adam double bottom. For on this pattern check it out here Bulkowski's Blog.
[4:36 PM Update]

Repeat

I've been posting this chart the past few days and just added the potential leading diagonal here just like the one that formed last July.

If this is happening, wave 4 of the LD is on tap, which also jibes with a potential wave 4 pullback with the 15 min charts I have been posting.

[Updated the 15m Primary]

I updated the 15m Primary below to better reflect the wave 2 pullback and the or 4 pullback.

EOD Update

The bulls managed to take out another resistance level today at 1250 and close above it. All three counts I'm following remain in-line with one another even with the respective alternates within the alternate counts.

All imply that the end of this leg off the 10/4 low should be ending if it has not already ended today.

SPX - 15m Primary

My primary 15 min count is looking for one more possible push to 1258 if it did not already complete it's leg up today.

Notice there is a slight discrepancy with my primary hourly count below with the 15 min above. I would go with the blue count below because of form and the fact that the hourly MACD is rolling over to create a -ve divergence. This would make sense that this leg up from10/18 may be completing.

Either way, my 15 min chart has it listed as the alternate option. I just didn't want to have to move the labels around again. I'll just be watching for both.

Blue- 60 Min Primary

This count also fits well with the alt2 count below should the market intend to tag the 200 day SMA above.

SPX - 15m Alternate

SPX -15 m Alternate 2

SPX - Daily Altenrate 2

VIX - 15m

HG

Copper still on fire.

Weekend Thoughts

I will be presenting several charts supporting both the bullish and bearish case. This is a work in progress over the weekend so check back later for more charts, especially the bearish one (assuming I can find more!)

THE BULL CASE

2010 Replay v2

Added the 200 day SMA. Perhaps that is where leg A completes first. 

2010 Replay?

The labels are not wave labels but used for reference. So the question remains is the market working on completing leg A and then a pullback B to come? Or has the market completed the MA backtest  at C and is set to trend higher?

The former scenario would make sense to form a better proportioned inverted head and shoulders bottom. Let's see what plays out.

So though this may favor a bearish view near term, it has a longer term bullish view and until a cross down occurs, it should remain as a bullish view.

 One thing to note is that it would be obvious to expect a pullback to form a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern so perhaps the market does not give one a chance to get in on the ride.

10 Year - Fibonacci

Interesting how the market has respected the various Fibonacci levels through out the 2008 decline and from the 2009 rally. Perhaps a re-test of 1370 is in store should 1228 hold.

The weekly MACD buy signal that trigger at the end of the week may be alluding to this move.

3 Push Pattern?

Weekly 'W' Bottom?

A MACD buy signal and a close above the 20 week SMA. To confirm the next week or two should see a decent sized rally.

NYA Breadth Thrust

Refer back to this post for an explanation on this.

Weekly 13 EMA and 80 SMA

The market cleared both.

Fibonacci Fans

The market finally cleared the 61.8% yellow Fib Fan.
THE BEAR CASE

2008 Replay?

50/200 MONTHLY SMA

The MACD LT TL squashed the latest rally so far and remains in a confirmed sell signal. However, for a bullish argument, price backtested the blue TL and bounced very rapidly.

Will need to keep an eye on the MACD TL. If it breaks up and through,  this chart will be placed on the bull side.

3-Push 

This is a near term view so not necessarily bearish on the longer term.

EOD Update [2:41 PM Update]

[2:41 PM Update]

Blue

Just an update on the blue count, which is the primary. 


EOD Update

Even with the 20 point gain today several counts remain on the table. For the most part they all point to either a few more points higher or a substantial amount higher. Either way, there is a bias to the upside. The main difference at this point is how high?

So for the time being, let's stick with the primary and keep our eyes peeled for the 3 best alternatives (IMHO)  for now.

I'll post more long term charts over the weekend. One thing to note is the weekly MACD crossed up today triggering a buy signal. I'll post my 2008 analog chart over the weekend too that addresses this.

Primary

Alternate

Alternate 2

Alternate 3

VIX

Pre Market Update [5:38 AM Update]

[5:38 AM Update]

SPX- 5 min

Pre Market Update

In yesterday's EOD Update, I wrote, "For the primary, alt 1 and alt 2 counts, we should know very early tomorrow if they are still legit the way they are labeled because a wave 3 gap and go up should be the first thing to occur at the open based on this count."

The pre market action is validating the primary, alt 1 and alt 2 so far. However, one thing to consider is that until a new high is made over 1233.10, this may still fit within the alt 3 scenario and that is a large triangle. This  move would just complete wave d of the tri near a higher level.

ES

HG

Copper was on fire overnight. Here's one other scenario I posted in the chat room last night, http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201110/phplTDc3rhgflat.png. If that's the case, 3.4 may be a minimum target. However, I'd like to see 3.2575 taken out first.

EUR/USD

So far the Eur looks like it wants to form a triangle.